Tuesday, June 5, 2018

The Market, Energy, And The Political Page, Part 4, T+5 -- June 5, 2018 -- WTI

Wow, did we just see the bottom for WTI?

I've been watching it closely this morning -- checking in every 30 minutes or so, and after flat to negative all morning, WTI has turned green. Now up 0.37%, up about 24 cents, to $64.99. Two things. First, the floor. Is the floor for WTI about $65? With all the headwinds now addressed -- can anyone think of any more headwinds? -- WTI goes below $65 and then turns "green."

Now the analysis. A reader suggested it.

The US has "quietly" asked Saudi Arabia to increase output by one million bopd. Reasons were provided earlier, but it does not matter what the reasons are. The fact remains, the US has "quietly" asked Saudi Arabia to increase output by one million bopd.

There can only be one possible reason why the US would "quietly" ask Saudi Arabia to increase output. The administration is worried the price of oil is going to rise. So, if the price of oil is going to rise, wouldn't another million bopd from Saudi Arabia tend to stem/lower the price of oil? Sure, maybe, eventually.

But this is what the reader suggested: we won't see that oil for another six months. First, Saudi Arabia and Russia are due to meet in June. Saudi Arabia could react more quickly, but the tea leaves suggest Saudi Arabia will wait for that meeting.

That brings us to July. Then, of course, it takes awhile for Saudi Arabia to actually physically open the spigots -- either from existing supplies or wells in the field.

And, then of course, a bit of time to arrange for the tankers to show up at the Saudi terminals.

And finally, the tankers to reach the US and then the refineries  and then the refining ....

So, add it all up and one can make a case that the price of oil is going to rise in the short term.

Just saying.

Disclaimer: it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.


Can you believe that this is a Neil Sedaka song? From wiki:
"One Way Ticket," the B-side on Sedaka's 1959 single "Oh! Carol". In 1961, the song featured in the track listing of his third studio album, Neil Sedaka Sings Little Devil and His Other Hits, but was never released as a standalone single. Despite this, the song made it to #1 on the Japanese pop charts, where it was affectionately called "The Choo-Choo Train Song".
1959: almost sixty years ago.

One Way Ticket, Eruption

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