Friday, June 21, 2024

TGIF -- June 21, 2024

Locator: 47852ARCHIVES.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. In addition, facts, factoids, and opinions will be interspersed and may not be easily discerned what is what. In the big scheme of things, this is just a bit of rambling and if you skip this entire page you won't be missing anything important.

Speaking of which, what did the market do today? Near the close, essentially flat for the day -- a good day for stock pickers and traders, perhaps not for investors.

Louis Rukeyser: Friday night, one half hour -- that was about all the investing / financial programming we got on live television decades ago. Now, we have 24/7 financial programmig if you include the internet. Does anyone compare with Louis Rukeyser today? Yup. Scott Wapner on CNBC's "Half-Time Report." Wapner is as good as / or better than Rukeyser, day-in, day-out for an hour every business day. And when he has the right panel he is just so much better. 

Pet peeve: when knowledgeable (?) financial analysts refer to "chips" as commodities. 

Tech: wow, things move quickly. 

It was very fortuitous that I did a "deep dive" into CPUs, GPUs, and all that jazz, back on April 29, 2024 -- wow, that was less than two months ago. In less than two months, we have gone from talking about 7-nm chips to talking about 3-nm CPUs, GPUs and NPUs, along with cores, and now we have performance cores and efficiency cores. And "they're" all chips. And anyone who says chips are commodities display a level of ignorance that is mind-boggling. I'm not saying that the success and failure of chip makers won't change over the years, but chip makers aren't in the commodity business.

Phones: is this what it comes down to? This needs to be fact-checked

  • Apple iPhones: in-house chips, currently A-series; ARM-based.
  • Android: Qualcomm Snapdragon; ARM-based;
  • Huawei: Kirin series, made by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC; a Chinese company, and Chinese-designed chips.

Battery: years ago, Steve Jobs said his biggest challenge was batteries. 

To the best of my knowledge, there has not been a lot of advances in battery technology -- at least there are not many headlines.
My hunch, at some point, Apple pivoted. Realizing that solving the battery problem (SUPPLY) was not going to happen any time soon, they turned to DEMAND. And that meant specialized chips, more efficient chips, smaller chips, chips that can be placed together more closely, and chips that work better together (are optimized for each other). All of those factors could reduce DEMAND, and thereby lengthen the intervals between charging. The holy grail? Twenty-four hours of high demand use (gaming and movies) on the smallest iPhones (with a side benefit, less heat). Specialized chips: CPUs, GPUs, NPUs. More efficient chips: performance cores and efficiency cores. Smaller chips: 3-nm. Placed on one chip: SoC. Optimized: in-house synergetic software.

Robert Winnett out as editor at The Washington Post. Links everywhere.

  • "Winnett has decided to remain at the Telegraph." -- The WSJ
  • typo in The WSJ headline; "joint" vs "join." Doesn't happen often.

Glut? As predicted? Used car prices dropped like a rock. A recurrent theme on the blog in recent months. Link here. Maybe Carl Q will comment.

North Dakota Natural Gas Output The New Star Of The Bakken? June 21, 2024

Locator: 47851B.

From a reader yesterday, thank you:


***********************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Weekly Petroleum Report; Gasoline Demand -- June 21, 2024

Locator: 47850WTI.

Weekly EIA productivity report: for those interested; I'm not.

Gasoline demand: link here. The big story here? Whether gasoline demand over July 4, 2024, will set a record? To do so, would need to trend toward 10 million bpd. I will be thrilled if 2024 simply beats 2023 numbers.

Ledecky Is The Big Story This Week -- June 21, 2024

Locator: 47849LEDECKY.

Welcome to summer -- and a little swimming:

Ledecky: link here. Olympic trials on-going. Many links. Videos and still-shots are amazing at this and other sites. Her only competitor? Herself. YouTube here.

Commentary is awesome, long video:

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.16.

Sunday, June 23, 2024: 71 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 334 for the year
40320, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay @ Federal 5293 12-3 2BX,

Saturday, June 22, 2024: 70 for the month; 134 for the quarter, 333 for the year
39896, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0706H-12,

Friday, June 21, 2024: 69 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 332 for the year
39891, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-07-5H-7,

RBN Energy: with changes on the horizong, Nederland/Beaumont hub increasing focus on NGLs.

The Nederland/Beaumont crude oil hub has been somewhat overshadowed recently by other Gulf Coast crude export hubs despite hosting America’s largest refinery, a handful of export terminals and pipeline links to the prolific Permian Basin. But while plans to build one or more deepwater crude export terminals could mean big changes for the Gulf Coast hubs, the Nederland/Beaumont area isn’t standing still. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what’s ahead for the region and its emergence as a leader in NGL exports.

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Hunt Oil With Three New Permits -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 47843B.

Updates

June 21, 2024: update from a reader in regard to my notes on naming wells. This is very, very much appreciated. 

I agree with your definition of their naming of wells.

I can add that I believe A well is on the west side of the spacing unit.

B well is still in the W2 but closer to the centerline of the sections.

C well is in the E2 but closer to the centerlin.

D well would be closer to the east side of the E2 of the section.

Formentera bought out the bankruptcy of Petro Harvester.  PH had begun using that style of naming their wells, which is why I’m comfortable with the added comment about the order of the wells.  One can see the naming procedure in 163-92 and 163-91.

Original Post 

Nomenclature

  • Formentera Ops has three LAR1 permits with the following names
    • LAR1 26-2 161-94 ATF
    • LAR1 26-2 161-94 CTF
    • LAR1 26-2 161-94 BMB
    • I don't recall seeing such nomenclature before (I may have simply missed them), but one wonders if this is the meaning behind the naming:
    • LAR1: "LAR" for Larson oil field.
    • 26-2: although sited just across the section line in section 23, these wells will be extended long laterals, three-section, 1920-acre spacing; running from section 26-162-94 through section 35-162-94 and then bottom hole in section 2-161-94
    • ATF, CTF, BMB: TF = Three Forks; MB - middle Bakken;
    • ATF, CTF, BMB: A, B, C -- simply the chronological progression of the wells; wells A, B, and C, like wells 1, 2, and 3.
  • CLR: has four "Catron" wells; CLR often names their wells after the cities from which their roughnecks come; could it be that "Catron" refers to Catron County, NM?

Now, back to the daily activity report.

WTI: $82.17.

Active rigs: 37.

Two new permits, #40860 and #40861:

  • Operator: Hunt Oil Company
  • Field: Alexandria (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • Hunt Oil has permits for two Alexandria wells, NENE 23-161-100,
      • both to be sited 375 FNL with one 850 FEL and the other 820 FEL:

Four permits renewed:

  • Lime Rock Resources (3): three Jore Fed permits, North Fork, McKenzie County;
  • Formentera Operations: one Lincoln State permits, Skjermo oil field, Divide County;

Six permits canceled:

  • Spotted Hawk: six Moose permits, McLean County;

The Dow Needs To Replace (At Least) Four Stocks -- Barron's -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 47842INV.

The four stocks:

  • INTC (Intel)
  • CSCO (Cisco)
  • CRM (Salesforce)
  • BA (Boeing)

See the linked article for recommended additions to the Dow to replace those four.

S&P 500 falls after briefly hitting 5,500 for the first time ever.

WTI: $82.34, up almost 1% today; up 75 cents/bbl today.

Wow, CVX is up over 2% today; up $3.50; trading at $157.

Still Tethered At Half-A-Million Dollars - June 20, 2024

Locator: 47841EVS.

In the Financial Times today, there's a headline article, "Why Americans are not buying more EVs."

Link here

Again, the write said it was all about price.

This is the third time I've written on this.

Bottom line: no American, European, or Asia manufacturer, outside of China, can produce an EV that will be inexpensive enough for Americans to consider and yet retain margins for the manufacturer to make them profitable. For example, if the "average" price for a new car is running in the $40K range, the EV will have to come in under $30K for an American to even consider. And that isn't going to happen. Stellantis knows that -- about the price Americans are willing to pay -- and that's why Stellantis is promising a $25K-EV "very soon.

But even if manufacturers can EVs to a price Americans would be willing to pay, Americans simply won't buy an EV for one reason: it's tethered. 

I've talked about this issue of tethering, at length, at least twice before.

Exhibit A: Americans seem to be accepting non-tethered, fake EVs, i.e., hybrids. 

Other EV-related articles today: one from the Netherlands. This one is simply amazing; think about this for a moment, coming fro the Netherlands, one of the "richest" western nations today:


From Ferrari (key phrase: at least):

**********************
The Netherlands

Getting back to that Netherlands story above.

From twitter in the last 48 hours.

Apple Education -- Back To School -- Webpage Now Up -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 47840AAPL.

Apple took down its Apple "education page" earlier today while it updated the webpage which will announce pricing and sales for its annual back-to-school pricing and sales. 

The page is back up. Should be fun.

M-series: CPU (multiple cores, performance and efficiency); GPU (multiple cores); 16-core neural engine.

Link here.

These things get confusing for me and some of the information below may be incorrect; if this is important to you, go to the source, linked above.

First thing to check out: the new M4 iPad Pro. Before add-ons, basic model:

  • 11-inch: $899
  • 13-inch: $1,199

Apple Pencil Pro: $119

The M2 iPad Air. Before add-ons, basic model:

  • 11-inch: $549
  • 13-inch: $749

The M4 iPad Pro or Air. Before add-ons, basic model:

  • 11-inch Pro: $899
  • 13-inch Pro: $1199

MacBook Air. Range: $999 - $1599

  • MacBook Air, M2, 13-inch.
  • MacBook Air, M3, 13-inch.
  • MacBook Air, M3, 15-inch.

MacBook Pro. Range: $1,499 - $3,199.

  • 14-inch, by chip: M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max.
  • 16-inch, by chip: M3 Pro, M3 Max.

First thought: college freshman, engineering major -- needs both a tablet for note-taking in class; and, a laptop for general library, dorm room use:

  • M4 iPad Pro with Pro pencil
    • choice: 13-inch or 15-inch M3 MacBook Air
  • MacBook Air, M3
    • no laptops come with the M4 yet
    • nor do any desktop iMads come with the M4 yet 
    • choice: 13-inch or 15-inch

Three Days Of The Condor -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 47839B.

Feel free to move on to another website. I'm taking a break. I couldn't possibly be in a better mood. 

I just got back from Portland, OR, with a huge shopping bag full of books: Aristotle, Greek mythology, Robert Graves, JD Salinger. Then The New Yorker, The Atlantic. And now GK-PID. And now, Three Days of the Condor on YouTube. Full movie, free. 

GK-PID: I don't know how I missed this. Where was I in 2016 when this was all over the news, including The New York Times? Richard Dawkins' The Ancestor's Tale: the big mystery ... what makes an animal an animal and are sponges animals? What is the genetic marker that "identifies" an animal as an animal? And how did animals come to be?

  • UChicagoMedicine, January 7, 2016. A single, billion-year-old mutation nelped make multicellular animals evolve. Link here.
  • eLife, January 7, 2016. Evolution of an ancient protein function involved in organized multicellularity in animals. Link here
  • NYT, January 7, 2016. Genetic flip helped organisms go from one cell to many. Link here.

Researchers:

  • Douglas P Anderson: University of Oregon, Eugene;
  • Dustin S Whitney: Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee;
  • Victor Hanson-Smith: see Anderson; now, University of California, San Francisco;
  • Arielle Woznica: Howard Hughes Medical Institute, UC-Berkeley;
  • Williams Campodonico-Burnett: see Anderson;
  • Brian F Volkman: see Whitney;
  • Nicole King: Howard Huges Medical Institute, UC-Berkeley;
  • Joseph W. Thornton: University of Chicago, Chicago;
  • Kenneth E Prehoda: see Anderson

So:

  • Oregon: team of four
  • Milwaukee: two
  • UC-Berkeley: two
  • Chicago: one

*******************************
Greco-Persian War -- 5th Century BC

"War for the West: What if the Persians had defeated the Greeks?" Joseph Epstein, Claremont Review of Books, Spring, 2000, link here.

The Greco-Persian Wars, Peter Green, a re-issue, originally published 1970. Link here. Just ordered a copy from Amazon. Will arrive today / tomorrow.

*************************
Lobbyists

"The Industry That Ate America," Franklin Foer, The Atlantic, July/August, 2024. Link here. The writer missed the mark. Rather: exceptionally poor timing. Most folks will read this article just after seeing the news of "Just Stop Oil" sprayed Stonehenge and Taylor Swift's jet(s) with orange paint. 

"Just Stop Oil" is making congressional lobbyists look like saints.

WTI Hits $82 And Not Yet Mentioned By CNBC, Not Even On The Crawler -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 47838MUSIC.

Hyperscaler: I just turned on CNBC one minute ago, and so far, "hyperscalers" has been said three times, once with Broadcom. 

Goldilocks economy: booming. See unemployment numbers released this morning. 

Goldman Sachs: updates its conviction list. Link here. Edwards Lifesciences, Enphase Energy, Sempra Energy, Teradyne, Brixmore Property Group.

New record highs: NASDAQ and S&P 500. It never quits. Having said that, folks comparing this to the 2000 dot-com bubble have no idea what they're talking about. What's going on now is way different than what was going on in 2000.

TSM; up over $2.00 already early this morning. A year ago the GOAT was selling his short-lived TSM position:

Global politics - UK: link here.

  • UK conservatives, UK PM Sunak facing landslide defeat? 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.27.

Friday, June 21, 2024: 69 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 332 for the year
39891, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-07-5H-7,

Thursday, June 20, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: why oil, gas, and NGL infrastructure investment is soaring while production growth is flat.

There’s never been any reason to question the drivers for energy infrastructure development — until now. Historically, the drivers were almost always “supply-push.” The Shale Revolution brought on increasing production volumes that needed to be moved to market, and midstreamers — backed by producer commitments — responded with the infrastructure to make it happen.
But now things seem to be different. U.S. energy infrastructure investment is soaring across crude oil, natural gas and NGL markets and, as in previous buildouts, midstreamers are bringing on new processing plants, pipelines, fractionators, storage facilities, export terminals and everything in between. We count nearly 70 projects in the works.
But crude production has been flat as a pancake, natural gas is down, and lately NGLs are up — but as you might expect, only in one basin: the Permian. So what is driving all the infrastructure development this time around? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore why that question will be front-and-center at our upcoming School of Energy: Catch a Wave. Fair warning, this blog includes an unabashed advertorial for our 2024 conference coming up on June 26-27 in Houston.

Wednesday Night -- June 19, 2024

 Locator: 47838MUSIC.

New drinking game: take a shot of ..... While watching CNBC take a shot of your favorite Scotch every time a talking head says "hyperscaler." LOL

Goldman Sachs: early June, GS added five new names to its "conviction list." Two of the five are long-term holdings for me ... I may have mentioned this before.

Summertime and the livin's easy. Gonna be a great night for music.

Link here.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

From CNBC Yesterday -- June 18, 2024

 Locator: 47837RETAIL.

Tag: Costco, COST, TJX, Target, TGT. 

Walmart's market cap: $543 billion. 

I never would have guessed.

A Bittersweet Evening — Willie Mays, 93 — June 18, 2024

 Locator: 47836MUSIC.

On the iPad, so can’t do much, efficiently.

So, will simply note the songs and other stuff:

Linda Ronstadt, Just One Look.

Bob Dylan, Things Have Changed.

Fisker files for bankruptcy. Just talked about it less than a month ago, is Polestar next?

Taco Bell.

Best movie of all time.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

ISO-NE: Level 1 Power Emergency -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47835NE.

Unlike Texas, which has a demand problem, NE has a supply problem when it comes to residential (and probably, commercial) energy.

I followed "ISO-NewEngland" religiously for years and then quit out of boredom, once I understood "it."

Dan, apparently, kept in touch (with ISO-NewEnland). From twitter today


Anticipation -- Getting Ready For Tomorrow -- Juneteenth, 2024

Locator: 47834B.

No one seems to mention that Juneteenth was a "Texas thing" first. 

Some nice background reading: link here.

*************************
Movie Night Tonight

Hellboy.

Reading Dr Fauci’s essay in the summer issue of The Atlantic is much like watching the movie.

 *************************
The Book Page

While reading Goodby To All That, Robert Graves, c. 1929, 1957, 2018, I came across a new phrase. Curious, I looked into the issue of British succession to the throne:


 Also: the Primus stove. So British but Swedish heritage.

Tuesday -- Final Comments -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47833B.

Statesman: this is currently the "top story" over at Drudge right now.

I'll discuss it later. It's a very interesting story.

TSM: could "Taiwan's power shortage" story be a huge opportunity for the US

Another record: S&P notches 31st record close this year.

AAPL: to the moon! JPM raises target. To $245, up from $225. Maintains overweight rating.

NFLX: to infinity and beyond. Up almost $10 today; up almost 60% in the past year (the original post):

  • vs the GOAT:

US tech: another story that's very interesting is this one -- Atlanta, Georgia, as a US "tech" center.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.57.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #40842 - #40846, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (4); Grayson Mill (3; XTO
  • Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); Haystack butte (Dunn); Hofflund (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Taney wells, NENW 26-145-97, 
      • to be sited 525 FNL and between 1995 FWL and 2283 FWL;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for three Bice wells, lot 3, section 18-148-97, 
      • to be sited 325 FWL with locations, 2110 FSL; 2080 FSL; and, 2050 FSL: and,
    • XTO has a permit for an HBU Marmon Federal well, SESW 13-154-95, 
      • to be sited 697 FSL and 2002 FWL;

I'm not sure I've seen this before: Grayson Mill has seventeen permits approved for confidential status. 

  • names: Moberg, Knight, Beaux, and Hovland.

I'm not sure I've see this before: thirteen permits canceled by one operator, XTO: 

  • HBU Marmon Federal permits in Williams County. but they do have a new Marmon Federal permit (seen above) suggesting they're "revising" their locations and/or the bottom hole locations.

This Gets Tedious -- But It's Important -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47832INV.

AAPL: profit-taking today.

NVDA: most valuable by market cap.

MSFT: flat.

BRK, OXY Update -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47832OXY.

For oil bulls, there are few things more bullish than a story reporting Warren Buffett buying more OXY. 

BRK is tracked here.

WTI: a bit volatile in the past two weeks, but WTI is now ... now ... now clearly trending higher, trading above $81 for the first time in a long time (I wonder if CNBC is reporting that -- I'm not watching CNBC today -- reading instead -- ).

OXY / BRK: stakes raised to 29%. Link here.

Berkshire Hathaway has recently bought another nearly 3 million shares in Occidental Petroleum, boosting its stake to almost 29%, Warren Buffett’s conglomerate said in an SEC filing this week.  

Over the three trading days to June 17, Berkshire Hathaway acquired as many as 2,947,611 common stock of Oxy, at a price of around $59 each.

Let's see how CNBC is reporting this story

  • every trading day from June 5, 2024 - June 17, 2024
  • added an additional 7.3 million shares
  • averaged just under $60 / share
  • now: 255 million+ shares; a 28.8% stake in the company
  • BRK's 6th largest holding
  • BRK is OXY's biggest institutional investor by far
  • but also, BRK
  • owns $10 billion of OXY in preferred stock
  • owns warrants to buy another 83.9 million shares for $5 billion, or $59.62 each

Ticker for one year:

BRK is going to need a very, very good year in energy to beat the S&P this year. 

But I think BRK can do it:

  • tech will correct, bringing the S&P with it (unless the Fed cuts rates more than expected, and the market takes off yet again); and,
  • WTI holds above $80 through September, and E&P companies respond in kind.

But it will be close.

For The Archives -- Even On A Military Salary -- June 12, 2024

Locator: 47831FORTHEARCHIVES.

My only source of income from 1997 to 2007 was from the USAF.

It is well known -- or at least many say that -- that the military does not pay its members well. I certainly heard that often throughout my career; that I could do much better "on the outside." Someday I may talk about that; whether that was true or not. [I felt early on that money / income / financial status was not the only way one measured success / a life well lived.]

Whatever.

I don't have my pay stubs in front of me but I think my initial annual salary was in the range of $25,000. I don't know. I don't remember. I could be way off. 

Later: from the internet, the 1980 military pay chart, a captain (an O-3 with at least four years of service): $1,614.90 / month, or $19,378.80. In addition to that, I would have earned various "special pays." I was not yet a flight surgeon so I did not earn flight pay. So, $25,000 per annum is a pretty good wag.

Whatever.

But, I invested "to the max" when I was on active duty. Our two daughters graduated from very expensive colleges; and both were debt-free before I retired. 

We never lived "very well" when it came to material things; we generally lived in substandard housing, particularly when we lived overseas. We moved a dozen times and always lost money in a move even though the military "paid for the move." It always took two years to recover financially from a move.

As noted, I invested "to the max" while on active duty. I started a brokerage account for each of our two daughters. When they got married, I quit following those accounts and to this day have no idea what their accounts are worth.

I am visiting one of the two daughters in Portland, OR, this week. I knew I had invested in a tech / chip company early in my investing days. It was the only chip company in which I invested and it was in the younger daughter's account. That chip company has done very, very well recently, so I was curious. I asked my daughter how much that investment had grown; what it was worth today.

She told me: it has just hit the six-figure threshold. I can't imagine what my initial investment in this particular chip company was but it couldn't have been more than $5,000 and even that seems like a stretch. I'll bet it was a couple of thousand dollars. It never paid a dividend, if I recall correctly.

It's not AAPL and it's not NVDA but it is a well-known chip company today. At the time I bought it, I don't think "anyone" had really heard of it. I made a one-time investment -- again, that's why I doubt it was as much as $5,000 -- and then "forgot about it." I tracked it periodically but then lost track of it until tonight. 

Pure luck. I came across the company while reading some "science" magazine ... I think it was Scientific American. The company was a start-up at the time. Long story. Associated with Sprint, my cellphone carrier. [Later: the Sprint name as a stand-alone company came into being in 1987, which is about the time I was just getting into investing. I recall my first equity investment was in 1984.]

The point is that even on a military salary .... fill in the blank.

For the archives.

Oh, my only source of income. My bad. I wrote that my only source of income was my military salary. I forgot that my wife worked for a couple of years when we were stationed in Bitburg Air Base, Germany. Her entire salary was put into her IRA and other investments after her IRA was maxed out. She started taking RMDs several years ago -- enough to cover at least one Norwegian cruise for both of us each year, had we so desire -- and yet her IRA is almost as much as when she first started taking RMDs. [Later: as of June 18, 2024, her IRA now exceeds -- despite taking distributions for the past ten years at about 5% per year -- what her IRA maxed out when we quit contributing.]

*******************************
My Covid Library

Link here.

I will be adding a commentary by Dr Anthony Fauci to that library.

Link at The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/07/anthony-fauci-covid-trump-white-house-response/678491/.

I flip-flopped on the Covid-19 story, and I flip-flopped on Dr Fauci. I now feel very, very comfortable about that entire period.

The timeline per Dr Fauci:

January 1, 2020: a reporter call Dr Fauci, at home, on a holiday, to ask about "something strange going on in China.' Fauci was unaware; said he would "monitor," as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Early days, January, 2020: information hard to come by; China, secretive. Fauci reaches out to Bob Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Redfield already in contact with his counterpart in China, Geore Gao. Initially, Gao: "nothing to be seen here." Then, days later, Gao: very, very concerned.

January 3, 2020: forty-eight hours after the January 1, 2020, reporter's phone call --  Fauci with a group at the National Institutes of Health: "we don't know what's going on in China." Meeting chaired by Vaccine Research Center Director John Mascola. Fauci said, at that meeting, "We are going to need a vaccine for whatever this new virus turns out to be." [Conspiracy theorists: how much did Fauci know and when did he know it?]

At the meeting: Barney Graham, one of the world's foremost vaccinologists. His group had been working with mRNA and Moderna, research conducted for many years by Karikó and Drew Weissman. [Story jibes with all I've read. Much could be said here but I need to move on.]

FDA had never approved an "mRNA vaccine."

January 10, 2020: scientists uploaded the SARS-CoV-2 sequence to a public data base. [Conspiracy theorists: how much did Fauci know and when did he know it?]

January 20, 2020: US identified first known case of the novel coronavirus; a 35-y/o male, arriving home, Washington State, from Wuhan. The US had already begun screening [international] passengers at several US airports.

January 29, 2020: White House had just convened a meeting to discuss how to evacuate US citizens from Wuhan. President Trump in charge. 

January 23, 2020: photograph seen of the Chinese government erecting a 1,000-bed prefabricated hospital. How many infected in China at that time by the "new" virus? At the time, 25 Chinese people had died of Covid; 800 were infected; by the end of January, new cases being identified by about 25% per day.

January 30, 2020: China reports more than 9,000 people infected; 213 people dead, due to Covid.

January 30, 2020: worldwide, the number of infections in a single month had surpassed the 2002 - 2003 SARS outbreak.

January 31, 2020: Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, the CDC's Bob Redfield, and Fauci, explain the details of a proposed travel ban to the president. [Meetings with presidents take time to set up; and briefers are vetted through several "preliminary" meetings with White House staffers.]

February 11, 2020: WHO officially designated the disease caused by the novel coronavirus as COVID-19; now spreading relentlessly around the world. The CDC was "stumbling badly." -- Anthony Fauci.

February 25, 2020: Nancy Messonnier, director of immunization and respiratory disease, CDC, recommended to the US government (recipients of that message not identified in this essay) to prepare to close schools, and work remotely. "The media erupted, the stock market plummeted nearly 1,000 points, and Trump was furious.

February 26, 2020: VP Mike Pence took over for Alex Azar as the head of the White Hosue coronavirus task force. [Should be say, "the novel coronavirus"?]

March 3, 2020: a longtime Fauci colleague from Seattle notified Fauci that COVID was identified and spreading in Seattle.

Undated, but about that time, an Oval Office meeting. Trump still suggested the "seasonal flu" vaccine was the "drug of choice."

March 8, 2020: Fauci appears on 60 Minutes. Fauci: "people should not be walking around without masks."

March, 2020: the month COVID became frighteningly real to Americans.

Undated, abut about this time: President Trump getting advice from Laura Ingraham on the use of hydroxychloroquine. [Think "Mexican peach pits to treat stage 4 cancer."]

The first three months.

*******************************
Aristotle, Politics, Science

How fortuitous to be reading these three books right now, at the same time, looking back on Covid:

The Politics of Aristotle, translated with an introduction, notes and appendixes, Ernest Barker, c. 1958, withdrawn from the library 6/24.

The War That Killed Achilles: The True Story of Homer's Iliad and the Trojan War, Caroline Alexander, c. 2009, withdrawn from the library 2/24.

The Greek Myths, Complete Edition, Robert Graves, c. 1955, 1960, withdrawn from the libary 6/24.

Chart Of The Day -- Micron -- MU -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47879MU. 

Micron:

TSM is a close second for "chart of the day."


*******************************
The New Dot-Com Bubble?

This time it's different.

*********************************
Limited Issue of 300

... and I got one!

My Favorite Chart -- Money Market Funds -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47878MMFS. 

Link here.

That increase, not only was it a reversal of the two previous months, the increase was not trivial. And, oh by the way, in the process, set an all-time record.

Link here.


*******************************
MMFs And The Market

From an earlier post:

Investors are happy about all this cash on the sideline. They shouldn't be; we've discussed this before (December 19, 2023):

More than $6 trillion "on the sidelines." Some talking heads on CNBC and some tweeters opine that a lot of that money could flow back into the equity market in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates. Not gonna happen. Most of that money was moved from checking and savings accounts at banks. Huge problem for regional banks. Some of that MMF money will flow back into the equity market but most of it will stay in MMFs. Compared to MMFs, equities are riskier and even at 2%, MMF compare favorably with equities in many cases. 

People that put money into MMFs are not going to put that money into the stock market. At least not $6 trillion. My mother exemplified the typical "investor" in MMFs, as does my wife.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Locator: 47877MMFS. 

Wow, wow, wow: I'll post "my favorite chart" when I get back from driving Sophia to "Camp Mania."

Apple buyback: Tim knew what he was doing. Link here.

  • Apple has bought back almost $430 billion worth of its own stock over the past five years
  • that amount is more than any other company
  • that $430 billion exceeds the market cap of Mastercard, ASML, Procter & Gamble (individually, not combined)
  • social media response interesting
Recycling:

Retail Sales Come In Unexpectedly Low -- WTI Holds Above $80 -- Tech Futures Insane -- Tech Rally Rolls On -- June 18, 2024

Locator: 47876B. 

Tech futures: all green.

Is INTC the new CSCO

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.35.

Friday, June 21, 2024: 69 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 332 for the year
39891, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-07-5H-7,

Thursday, June 20, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
None.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
None.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
40096, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 8B,

RBN Energy: a drill-down report on four projects vying to be next deepwater export terminal. Archived.

The four deepwater crude oil export projects under development along the U.S. Gulf Coast are getting closer to receiving their regulatory go-aheads after years of planning and millions of dollars spent. In fact, Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) received its license in April. These projects have sparked commercial and wider market interest because of the many benefits they may provide — including the ability to fully load 2-MMbbl Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) without any reverse lightering.

To say the U.S. crude oil market has undergone a transformation over the last 15 years would be an understatement. The Shale Revolution enabled producers to unlock volumes that were unimaginable to many not long ago, especially in the most prolific U.S. production area: the Permian Basin. As the production of mostly light sweet crude from domestic shale plays grew, U.S. refineries by the mid-2010s were consuming their fill. But even as production kept growing and refineries became satiated, U.S. crude oil exports were largely limited to Canada, causing concern at the time that the Shale Revolution could hit a wall. Then, in December 2015, the Obama administration opened the door for crude exports. Export volumes took off — soaring from less than 500 Mb/d in 2015 to more than 2 MMb/d in 2018 and more than 4 MMb/d in 2023. Despite a recent slowdown, we expect exports to continue growing along with U.S. production throughout the 2020s, propelling market interest for new, efficient export terminals along the Gulf Coast.

Monday, June 17, 2024

Apple: To End "Buy Now, Pay Later" -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47875APPLE.  

Tag: FinTech; Affirm. Buy now, pay later.

Link here.

Comes just a year after Apple introduced the consumer banking / credit card service.

From the linked article:

Apple is ending its buy now, pay later service, just over a year after launching it. The service, called Apple Pay Later, allowed customers to split purchases between $50 and $1,000 into four payments spread over six weeks with no interest and no fees.
The initiative, unveiled in March 2023, was part of the company’s push to use finance to deepen its relationship with consumers. It competed with buy now, pay later companies such as Affirm and Klarna.
Apple’s website said Monday that the company is “no longer offering new loans” for Apple Pay Later, but that existing ones aren’t affected.
The company said it plans to offer a way for people to apply for buy now, pay later loans from other companies when they check out with Apple Pay, the company’s payment system. Last week, Apple said one of those companies would be Affirm, which it is adding as an option in the fall.
Citigroup and Synchrony Financial  will also be a part of the rollout, Apple said. The company is also adding a scannable code that will help shoppers use Apple Pay across the web.

Color me perplexed.

At CNBC

Was it simply more bother than it was worth?

Reading Tonight -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47874READING.  

Arrived today from Amazon:

  • Goodbye To All That, Robert Graves, first published in 1929; c. renewed, 2018.

Arrived by USPS:

  • The New Yorker, June 17, 2024.
  • The Atlantic, July / August, 2024.

SoC / SiP Update With Focus On Apple M4 -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47873M4.    

Tag: Intel, INTC.

My links to tech, at the "Tech" page tabbed above:

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Apple Silicon, perhaps the most important three paragraphs in the tech world:

Apple silicon refers to a series of system on a chip (SoC) and system in a package (SiP) processors designed by Apple Inc., mainly using the ARM architecture

They are the basis of Mac, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV, Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTag, HomePod, and Apple Vision Pro devices. 

Apple announced its plan to switch Mac computers from Intel processors to Apple silicon at WWDC 2020 on June 22, 2020.

The first Macs built with the Apple M1 chip were unveiled on November 10, 2020. As of June 2023, the entire Mac lineup uses Apple silicon chips. Apple fully controls the integration of Apple silicon chips with the company's hardware and software products. Johny Srouji is in charge of Apple's silicon design.

Manufacturing of the chips is outsourced to semiconductor contract manufacturers such as TSMC. 

I read and re-read those three paragraphs not infrequently. 

Apple has a number of SoC / SiP series of chips. See link above. 

The M-series is found in "every" family of Apple hardware, but not necessarily in every model in every "family" of Apple hardware.

The "M" series:
M1: revolutionary
M2: evolutionary
M3: evolutionary
M4: revolutionary

From the link above, the M4:

Apple announced the M4 chip on May 7, 2024, along with the new seventh-generation iPad Pro models. The M4 is based on the N3E process rather than the N3B process used by the M3, and contains 28 billion transistors. 

It has three or four performance cores, six efficiency cores and ten GPU cores. Apple claims the M4 has up to 1.5x faster CPU performance compared to the M2.

Note the "N3E" reference.

From Reddit posted recently with even more recent updates, link here

There is a lot of information packed in that thread that will take you down any number of rabbit holes.

I found this one particularly interesting, from an investor's point of view:

One assumes this market share is "outside" the Apple family of chips.  

More importantly:

  • that goose egg following Intel is pretty shocking, for lack of a better word.

So, anyway, another attempt to put this puzzle together.  

Later: more and the M4, link here.

The M4 is expected to be announced later today during Apple’s ‘Let Loose’ event, and with the company already employing the use of TSMC’s 3nm technology before, we immediately assumed that the new silicon would be fabricated on this lithography. However, one report states that unlike the M3 powering various Macs and mass produced on the ‘N3B’ architecture, Apple’s M4 will switch to the updated ‘N3E’ process, resulting in various improvements. The report also mentions that the upcoming SoC will arrive in three variants, which is nothing unusual regarding Apple Silicon releases.
TSMC’s 3nm ‘N3E’ architecture enables better yields, higher computational performance, and improved power efficiency when directly compared to the ‘N3B’ node. With the China Times reporting that the M4 will transition to the improved manufacturing process, Apple can effectively cut down its component costs by having more supply at hand. The same SoC is also said to be found in other upcoming machines, such as entry-level Macs, so with an excess chip supply in its possession, the technology giant can have adequate shipment available for customers.

Another Huge Day For Traders And Investors -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47872B.

Chart of the day: AVGO. Right now, the crawler on CNBC, after hours, during "Mad Money," AVGO is trading up another $18 / share, which takes it back to its intra-day high today:

US equity markets: another huge day. 

Thought: a couple of years ago, my store-brand bread was 99 cents a loaf and it quickly went to $1.19, then $129 and now today it's $1.49. 

Was this store-brand bread at 99 cents undervalued a few years ago and now at $1.49 it's finally "fair value"? One might ask that with regard to tech equities. Bottom line: is it any surprise that the market is taking off now that the pandemic and the Covid lockdown are well beyond what we see in our rear-view mirrors? Was Nvidia undervalued a few years ago and now its finally at "fair value"?

Before the close, earlier today:

At the close, another record high for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.48, up 2.6%; up $2.03 / gallon. Whoo-hoo! Rystad predicts almost no oil supply growth in 2024. Link here. From the linked article:

Rystad Energy on Monday projected that global oil supply growth would slow in 2024 and potentially the following year, due to the extension of OPEC+ voluntary cuts and the cartel’s demand forecast.
Based on the most recent OPEC+ guidance, total global oil supply growth will be near zero in 2024, which could render this year the first since 2020 with zero supply growth, Rystad said, estimating expect supply growth at around 80,000 barrels per day for 2024, down from earlier expectations of 900,000 bpd, which had been made in early June Reuters reported on Monday.
Rystad noted that OPEC+ cuts will take 830,000 bpd off the market in 2024 and 1.04 million bpd off the market next year, with U.S. shale being the most “trustworthy source” of supply growth. 

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40842 - #40846, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (4): Grayson Mill
  • Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Sixmile (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Catron wells, NENW 26-145-97; 
      • to be sited 525 FNL and between 2027 FWL and 2315 FWL;
    • Grayson Mill has a permit for a Grand national well, NWSW 34-153-103, 
      • to be sited 1494 FSL and 388 FWL

Four permits renewed:

  • BR: two Kellogg Ranch and two Nordeng permits, all in Elidah oil field, McKenzie County.

Holy Mackerel! Is Anyone Paying Attention? WTI Is Up Over 1% Today — Trending Toward $80 (Again) — June 17, 2024

Locator: 47871WTI.

WTI: at $80. Link here

*******************************
Saudi

Saudi crude oil: domestic consumption. Wow, I don't know how many times we've discussed this on the blog. Look at this, absolutely amazing:

The Shoaiba power plant, a sprawling complex of giant boilers and towering chimneys, is the improbable ground zero of the forces reshaping the energy market. Located in Saudi Arabia, it’s the world’s largest oil-fired electricity generator. At its peak, it gulps about 200,000 barrels a day, more than enough to meet the daily consumption of a small European nation like Portugal. 

If global oil demand is to peak within the next five years, as the International Energy Agency just predicted, it will require more than mass adoption of electric vehicles. Ironically, Riyadh will have to slash its own use of its homemade power source, making the Shoaiba and similar power plants the stuff of yesteryear. 

The staggering amount of oil the Saudis consume – 3.7 million barrels a day, the world’s fourth most, behind only the US, China and India — means the kingdom would play a key role in shaping demand to 2030, potentially accelerating peak consumption – or delaying it.

Some numbers:

  • population, Saudi Arabia: 36 million 
    • consumes 3. 7 million bopd
  • population, California: 39 million
    • consumes 1.8 million bopd

Alternate energy sources:

  • Saudi gives lip service to alternate energy sources to production electricity (most recently: nuclear) but in fact there is nothing so cheap as Saudi's oil for domestic consumption;
  • nuclear sounds nice, but we're talking years and a major transformation in thinking

*********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.82.Whoo-hoo!

Tuesday, June 18, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
40096, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 8B,

Monday, June 17, 2024: 67 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 330 for the year
40095, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 7T,
39226, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-5,

Sunday, June 16, 2024: 65 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 328 for the year
40094, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 6B,

Saturday, June 15, 2024: 64 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 327 for the year
40093, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 5T,
39225, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-4,

RBN Energy: an update on "sweetening" high-H2S, High-CO2 associated gas in the Permian.

Some of the most prolific, crude-oil-saturated rock in the Permian’s Delaware Basin and Central Platform comes with a nasty complication — namely, associated gas with very high levels of hydrogen sulfide (H2S0 and carbon dioxide (CO20. But rather than walking away from all those potential barrels, one midstream company saw the treatment of high-H2S high-CO2-gas as a market niche worth pursuing. Backed by commitments from Black Bay Energy Capital and an area E&P, Piñon Midstream has been expanding a system in southeastern New Mexico that not only gathers the super-corrosive gas and removes almost all the H2S and CO2, it also permanently sequesters the stuff deep underground through a pair of 18,000-foot-deep, Class II injection wells. In today’s RBN blog, we will provide an update on Piñon’s Dark Horse Treating Facility and the company’s plan for a further build-out of its sour gas system.

More And More It Appears BRK Is Foundering / Flounding / Struggling -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47870BRK.

TSM vs BRK: famously sold TSM after holding it for only a few months -- 

Stayed with SNOW, instead:


IYKYK:

  • SNOW: software
  • TSM: chip manufacturing; joined at the hip with Apple
  • software? dead money since a month ago and likely to stay that way a long, long time

**************************
BRK and EVs 

Link here.



**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   

********************
Buffett: For The Past Five Years, "Nothing Of Value To Buy Out There"


With regard to BRK-B and MU, check every time period, 3 months, 6 months, one year, and five years. I don't check back farther than five years, and before deciding to buy / not buy, most important data point is the one-year chart.

*******************
The Book Page 

Arrived today, from Amazon: Goodbye To All That, Robert Graves, c. 1957; renewed 2018. Everyman's Library