Purely Political -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 25, 2019

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. But I think most readers will get the gist of the essay.

I've gone back and forth on this over the past few months: whether Hillary Clinton could clinch the Democratic nomination for president.

Earlier, at best, I thought it was 50-50 that she could show up at the DNC nomination convention and get the nomination on the second (or later) vote (following a failed first vote to elect a nominee, i.e., a brokered convention).

I think the chances of that happening have risen significantly. Perhaps not as high as a 95% chance that it could happen vs a 5% chance that it won't happen but I certainly think the possibility is there. So, perhaps, for the sake of argument, I will suggest a 60 - 40 chance that she will show up at the DNC convention and get the nomination if/when the delegates fail to nominate Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders on the first round of voting.

This is the rationale, which I posted earlier today, under my "daily note" linked at the sidebar at the right, with editing:

I was waiting to see if anyone noted the timing. It takes a few days to "reserve" one's spot in the op-ed of any newspaper. It was telegraphed a few days ago that Joe Biden would announce his candidacy on Thursday, April 25, 2019. As a courtesy, he may have even told Mr Obama and even, possibly Hillary a few days ago. Hold that thought.

He made his announcement at oh-dark-thirty via a video which was released at the very same time the morning edition of the Washington Post was being delivered across Washington, DC.

On the very day that Biden announced his candidacy, Hillary Clinton has her op-ed in the Washington Post. [April 25, 2019]

From her op-ed in the Washington Post this morning, the very day (actually the very hour) that Joe Biden announced, this sounds like a woman who wants to jump back into the race:

Clinton continued in the [Washington Post op-ed] piece to call on Congress to “hold substantive hearings that build on the Mueller report and fill in its gaps,” and said the country needs “clear-eyed patriotism, not reflexive partisanship.” 

I could be wrong but "clear-eyed patriotism" is a(n) euphemism that has been applied to Hillary Clinton. 

The chances of a brokered convention are much higher this time than in 2016: there is no clear-cut favorite (Bernie vs Biden, both at 30%, with very, very unwavering support among that 30% -- the Bernie supporters are not going to abandon Bernie in the primaries and I doubt Biden's supporters will move to Bernie). At best they each get 40%, well short of that needed to win at the convention. And that could go on for several rounds of voting.

In addition, after the 2016 DNC nominating convention, the whole issue of super-delegates was changed, and to the best of my knowledge, these super-delegates will not have as much control/power as they did when Hillary was running. Many suggest that Bernie wold have beaten Hillary in a "fair" campaign.

Without question, Hillary is scrolling through her Rolodex, calling "her" delegates, telling them to keep the faith and that if either Bernie or Biden does not win on the first vote, she would appreciate their support. The downside to this argument: if she is calling those delegates, someone will leak that to the press. But she can always hold those calls until much closer to the convention.

Even without those phone calls, her op-ed reassured her base that she was still "in the fight." 

The timing will have to be perfect. If it's a brokered convention, and Hillary is "late," the majority of non-Biden, non-Bernie delegates will move to Biden. If there is no turmoil after the first vote, and they proceed quickly to a second vote, Hillary won't have the time to get on stage. But if we go to a third, fourth, or fifth vote, and the convention starts to get unruly, I can see Hillary (and Bill) suddenly walking out on stage. [For conspiracy theorists, I think Obama/Clinton will control the DNC convention and can stage-manage her entrance.]

The person who should be most upset by the timing of Hillary's Washington Post op-ed is Joe Biden. Again, Hillary sucked all the oxygen out of the room on the day he announced.

*******************************

Family Commitments May Preclude 

Any More Blogging Until Late This Evening