Daily Oil Production, North Dakota, January, 2012 - December 2013 -- Just For The Fun Of It

Updates

July 23, 2014: see also this post and the comment it generated. 

November 21, 2013: based on Platts story today that North Dakota produced 945,000 bopd in October, it is unlikely that North Dakota will hit the one-million-bopd milestone by the end of the year, but it will be close: the weather will have to cooperate, and prices will have to cooperate to encourage operators not to choke back. 

November 16, 2013: wow -- huge story in The Wall Street Journal. According to the EIA, "oil companies in the Bakken will reach the million-barrel milestone in December, 2013." A long article. Fun to read. Another U.S. oil field, the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, hit the million-barrels-a-day milestone in May of this year, according to the EIA data. The Permian Basin — the massive field in Texas that’s been the foundation for U.S. oil production for decades – got there in May 2011.

October 15, 2013: updated, most recent data -- August, 2013.

September 13, 2013: updated, most recent data -- July, 2013.

July 15, 2013: updated, following May's numbers.

July 9, 2013: according to this site, North Dakota officials predict daily production to reach 850,000 bopd by the end of 2013.  I think the state will hit 850,000 bopd by the end of August (remember: reporting lags two months, so we won't see that figure reported until Halloween).

July 7, 2013: Genscape is reporting (this was reported back on June 13, 2013):

Genscape is predicting crude production in the Bakken will continue its growth trend with 127 Mb/d added between April and the end of the year. By year end 2014, Genscape is predicting production will reach 1.1 MMb/d.

Genscape has expanded its network of proprietary real-time energy monitors to track Bakken production/transportation from 12 rail terminals and two pipelines. In April, 84% of crude produced in the Bakken was transported by rail, while the other 16% was transported by pipe. Rail remained a viable source of transportation in April as the spread between the coastal markets and the Bakken remained wide, averaging $17/bbl. However, this spread has come in significantly since then and volumes are now trending more towards pipeline. Nearly 30% of crude in May was transported by pipeline.

June 23, 2013: some other recent stories on Bakken production

• NDIC expects surge in crude oil production this summer ; Lynn Helms, Director, NDIC, as quoted in The Dickinson Press, April 17, 2013
• Bakken could produce 2 million bopd by 2025 -- slide 15 of a recent MDU presentation

June 23, 2013:  after reading the original post below, go back and read this note posted back in September 14, 2010, in which it was widely predicted that North Dakota would be producing one (1) million bbls of oil per day by .... drum roll ... 2020.

Through the end of this year, if oil production in North Dakota was to increase by just 1% each month, North Dakota would be producing 860,000 bopd. At that rate, just 1% increase each month, North Dakota would pass 1 million bopd by May, 2015.

In the past twelve months (April, 2012, through April, 2013, production has fallen below a 1% increase on only three occasions: 0.52% in March, 2013; and a decrease month-over-month on two occasions due to severe weather. May, 2013, had some severe weather so it's likely that production will decrease again month-over-month when results are posted next month.

At just 2% increase each month, North Dakota would pass 1 million bopd by April of next year (2014).

With takeaway capacity well in excess of 1.3 million bopd, the only thing holding back that 1-million-bopd threshold: natural gas processing. Operators are choking back oil production due to excess flaring due to inadequate natural gas processing.

Update

The original post was to project when/if the one-million-bopd would be reached in calendar year 2013. It was not; we came close, but the severe weather in December most likely prevented that milestone from being reached. The milestone will be reached in early 2014. This page will not be further updated. It served its purpose.

Original Post

Three different scenarios (data is updated when new numbers come out).

Four columns in each scenario.

• First column: month/year
• Second column: barrels oil per day (from NDIC website)
• Third column: increase or decrease from previous month
• Fourth column: A (actual) or E (estimate)

****************************************

The first scenario: the estimate is based on previous year's increase/decrease.

Month      bopd     %  chg act/est Jan-12 547326      2.29% A Feb-12 559370 2.20% A Mar-12 580415 3.76% A Apr-12 611329 5.33% A May-12 644345 5.40% A Jun-12 664475 3.12% A Jul-12 676729 1.84% A Aug-12 704478 4.10% A Sep-12 729477 3.55% A Oct-12 749097 2.69% A Nov-12 735276 -1.85% A Dec-12 768977 4.58% A Jan-13 738041 -4.02% A Feb-13 779149 5.57% A Mar-13 783184 0.52% A Apr-13 793852 1.29% A May-13 810129 2.05% A Jun-13 821598 1.42% A Jul-13 875736 6.59% A Aug-13 911242 4.05% A Sep-13 931940 2.28% A Oct-13 945182 1.42% A Nov-13 976453 3.31% A Dec-13 923227 -4.45% A ******************************************************************* If one wants to use a straight 1% for the rest of the year (month-over-month): Month bopd   % chge act/est Jan-12 547326 Feb-12 559370 2.20% A Mar-12 580415 3.76% A Apr-12 611329 5.33% A May-12 644345 5.40% A Jun-12 664475 3.12% A Jul-12 676729 1.84% A Aug-12 704478 4.10% A Sep-12 729477 3.55% A Oct-12 749097 2.69% A Nov-12 735276 -1.85% A Dec-12 768977 4.58% A Jan-13 738041 -4.02% A Feb-13 779149 5.57% A Mar-13 783184 0.52% A Apr-13 793302 1.29% A May-13 811262 2.26% A Jun-13 821598 1.25% A Jul-13 875736   6.59% A Aug-13 911242 4.05% A Sep-13 931940 2.28% A Oct-13 945182 1.42% A Nov-13 976453 3.31% A Dec-13 923227 -5.45% A *****************************************************   If one wants to use 2% increase, month-over-month: Month        bopd     % chg act/est Jan-12 547326 Feb-12 559370 2.20% A Mar-12 580415 3.76% A Apr-12 611329 5.33% A May-12 644345 5.40% A Jun-12 664475 3.12% A Jul-12 676729 1.84% A Aug-12 704478 4.10% A Sep-12 729477 3.55% A Oct-12 749097 2.69% A Nov-12 735276 -1.85% A Dec-12 768977 4.58% A Jan-13 738041 -4.02% A Feb-13 779149 5.57% A Mar-13 783184 0.52% A Apr-13 793302 1.29% A May-13 811262 2.26% A Jun-13 821598 1.25% A Jul-13 875736 6.59% A Aug-13 911242 4.05% A Sep-13 932962 2.28% A Oct-13 945182 1.30% A Nov-13 976453 3.31% A Dec-13 923227 -5.45% A