40,000 — May 16, 2024 — 9:32 A.M.

Locator: 47167INV.

Personal investing:

• adding to CAT position
• by rule, but more importantly: huge opportunity -- CAT selling off today
• p/e, 15; pays 1.5%;
  
• no recommendation; see disclaimer

The major indices today:

• Dow: 40,000
• S&P 500: 5,317.
• Broadness of the advance. Bob Pisani.

CNBC

First Hour: Money Movers

Going over 40,000: price-weighted index. Link here.

• YTD
• PLUS -- the "points" added to the Dow
  
• CAT: 390
• GS: 520
• AMEX: 350
• MINUS -- the "points dragging downt he Dow
  
• MCD:150
• BA: 510
• INTC: 120

BRK:

• CB. BRK. Mutual fund with no risk of capital gains tax event.
• Mutual funds inside IRA accounts..
• BRK outside IRA accounts.

No recommendation. See disclaimers.

Miscellaneous:

• AAPL: $190.32.
• WTI: $79.26.
• NYT, February 1, 2024, Paul Krugman.
• Dow, S7P, NASDAQ: hit record highs -- today. What's not to like.
  

More on this later, speak volumes: Scott Wren, Wells Fargo: waiting for market pullback to move funds from bonds to equity. Apparently a market-timing investment strategist. Unlike Warren Buffett’s “strategy.”

Going forward:

• WMT: optimistic going forward.
• DE: negative going forward.

Since 30,000.

• Top gainers:
• CAT
• AMEX
• MSFT
• Biggest losers:
• INTC
• VZ
• MMM

Only change in Dow: WBA deleted. AMZN added.

For investors worried about consumer debt, one needs to listen to the Affirm CEO. 

BNPL so much better than credit card. Look for “phantom-debt” interview. Apple and Affirm on same page. Affirm has a “no-late” fee policy. Has never collected a late fee. Same as Apple BNPL: no late fees. Affirm has partnered with Visa. Baton being passed from Baby Boomers to millennials. Affirm already reporting to credit agencies, voluntary. After working with credit agencies, Apple now getting ready to report BNPL data to reporting agencies. One of the last pieces of the puzzle. AMZN has both BNPL and subscription. Apple needs to add subscription. Best interview of the day.

Great discussion, but stock price action not encouraging. Will not add to my portfolio at this time. No recommendation; see disclaimers.. Video requires a "PRO" subscription.

Second Hour: Half-Time Report

"Half-Time Report" still the best hour on CNBC. 

Today's episode probably one of the best episodes the Judge has had in a long time.

First up: Josh.

• why is the market doing so well? #1 reason according to Josh
• the bears got wrong: "belief in America." Bearish on earnings.
  
• right on macro: "higher for longer," higher interest rates
• wrong on the unbelievable earning power of the best 500 companies in the world
• some of the best earning growth in earnings, and it's still going on
• these companies are incredibly profitable
• Josh's audience: asset allocation for rich clients
  

Stephanie, next:

• buys more AAPL
• bought more AAPL when folks were calling AAPL "dead money"
• biggest position: AAPL -- 7.5%
• services is a juggernaut
• 20+% up from 14%
• operating margins up in every single region in the world, except China
• and she goes on from there

third panelist, Bill:

• added more AAPL, but not as much -- among the top 5 or 6 of its holdings

Fourth, Jimmy:

• not just tech outperforming (echoes Bob Pisani, above)
• over the past month: only sector that's down, energy
• great time to build a diversified portfolio
• quit looking at crude oil; start looking at natural gas
• the puck is going to natural gas

Now back and forth:

• Stephanie: copper -- via Freeport-McMoran;
• bought India ETF (INDA)
• 
  

Steve Liesman:

• argues with Josh; says the Fed / interest rates will have a bigger impact than Josh's comments on earnings
• Josh is smiling broadly; he knows he's right
• Josh: "no daylight between us"
• Josh: gets it
• Steve: still arguing -- trying to prove he's right
• Josh: really doesn't care; he's making huge amounts of money on betting on America
• Josh: an optimist; Steve: a pessimist
• Josh: equities; Steve: bonds, Treasuries (don't take out of context)

The judge is truly incredible. CNBC truly has a great stable of contributors.

***********************
Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

11:19 a.m. CDT:

Sector leaders today: utilities (again), staples, communications services. Interesting -- especially utilities.

ETSC:

• utilities
• copper
• tech that saves energy (better chips)

SRE: up a bit today.

Cisco:

• Jim: giving Cisco one more quarter

DE:

• slashes FY sales growth

IBM, Palo Alto: Palo Alto buying IBM cloud assets

BRK, CB: long discussion

• right question being asked: why does BRK hold so much "insurance"?
• who's minting money off sticky inflation
• "most fun insurance conversation ever?" LOL.

UBER:

• partners with Costco
• huge market in concerts