There Are "Major Finds" And Then There Are "Major Finds" -- December 22, 2021

Can we re-visit the naysayers regarding the Bakken? LOL.

I see this every so often: a headline reporting "a major new oil find."

Here we go again, to quote RR. 

Over at Yahoo!Finance it's being reported that UAE has announced a "major oil find." Link here. 

Just last week, it was announced that the Bakken had at least another eight billion bbls of crude oil.

Hold that thought.

The "major UAE" find: recoverable reserves of "at least" 480 million bbls (that's less than one-half billion bbls), based on a provisional recovery rate of 40 percent for crude oil and 70 percent for natural gas.

I do believe the Bakken number is based on primary production which at best might hit 25%. If "we're" allowed to project 40% crude oil, that changes everything in the Bakken.

And, again, the last USGS survey was completed in 2013, and only covered the middle Bakken with a foreshadowing of the Three Forks first bench. That study is the "floor" for the Bakken.