Monday, May 3, 2021

Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List; MRO Reports A Huge Vickall Well; Zavanna Reports A Nice Blue Heeler Well -- May 3, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Gasoline demand: this is telling -- and it's hard to argue it's not related directly to rising cost of gasoline -- 

Dow transports: early Monday morning, May 3, 2021 -- hits new all-time intra-day high. 


BRK-B: hits all-time high; surges after the B&M show on Saturday, May 1, 2021; up 1.64% in early trading; up almost $5/share; trading near $280.

Titanic numbers: 60% of companies have reported earnings; average "beat": 22.8%

John Bogle, what drives stocks?

  • earnings: up 10% so far this year;
  • dividend growth: up 5% so far this year;
  • improving P/E: declining so far this year
  • liquidity: huge inflow to date

May: sell and go-away. CNBC says strategy has not worked for the past ten years. This year: FOMO. 

Investors: something to think about -- lots of talk about an increase in capital gains tax (will only affect high earners, directly), but no talk about a higher tax on dividends?

Most under-reported story: rate of growth in Covid-19 vaccinations not just leveling off, but actually declining; still good numbers but much lower than expected.  [Later: I posted that earlier this morning; about one hour later CNBC is reporting the same thing -- "vaccine hesitancy." Risk of not reaching herd immunity based on vaccination.

  • New Jersey: buses and mass transit -- passengers packed in like sardines; government still mandates highly restrictive capacities for restaurants.

Gasoline demand: surges. 

GasBuddy -- Saturday, May 1, 2021, gasoline demand rose 9.1% from the prior Saturday --setting a new pandemic high for a Saturday. With that, weekly gasoline demand jumped 3% to the second highest week since the pandemic began. Link here. Pundit suggests we will hit pre-covid demand in June (that's next month). Peter Toolan asks: "Wondering if there is a statistic for EV use and charging stations now?" Tells me all I need to know.

Verizon: Apollo; link here. Verizon sells Yahoo and AOL to Apollo for $5 billion. Up about 0.6% pre-market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Yahoo!Finance newsletter: Warren Buffett's advice. 

Schlumberger - Saudi IPO: link here

EPD: beats; results here;

  • EPS: 61 cents (56 cents?) vs 48 cents forecast; vs 61 cents one year ago;
  • social media: "continuing the beat streak with results >10% better than consensus"

Apple vs EPIC: if Apple loses, the monetary "loss" will be trivial; the "psychological" damage will be huge; no matter how it turns out it will be an epic loss, for one or the other.


Back to the Bakken

DAPL: returns to court today for "pivotal hearing." Operator taking case to US Supreme Court suggests to me this is all over. This reminds me of the Woody-Hayes-attributed quote on why he did not like passing: there are three things that can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad.

Bakken economy:

  • Basin Electric Power Coop to build 26.5-mile transmission line in Mountrail County;
  • $57.4 million; $2.2 million / mile
  • old WAG: highways, $1 million / mile; pipeline, $1 million / mile;
  • link here;
  • to meet growing electricity demand;
  • 930-kilovolt line
  • from the Neset Substation east of Tioga to the Northshore Substation south of Ross
  • 184 steel pole and frame structures

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1530636250

Wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, May 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 110 for the year:

  • 37539, drl/drl, BR, Faye 3A-UTFH, Elidah, no production data;
  • 36921, AL/A, MRO, Vickall USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 164K 2/21;

Sunday, May 2, 2021: 3 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 108 for the year:

  • 36606, F/A, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-5, Manitou, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 87K 2/21;
Saturday, May 1, 2021: 2 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 107 for the year:
  • 37150, drl/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-2B-11 1H, Charlson, no production;
  • 36543, F/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH, Stony Creek, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 55K 2/21;

RBN Energy: prospects for severe springtime gas takeaway constraints in Appalachia, part 6

Outbound natural gas flows from Appalachia over the weekend hit a new record high of 17.3 Bcf/d and averaged 16.7 Bcf/d for April — an all-time high for any month. That’s despite pipeline maintenance season being well underway last month and intermittently curtailing production and outflow capacity. Utilization rates of takeaway pipelines from the region are soaring above 90%, with little more than 1 Bcf/d of spare exit capacity for outflows of surplus Northeast production. 
Whether that will be enough to stave off severe constraints and discounted pricing in Appalachia in what’s left of the spring season, and again in the fall will depend on how much surplus gas is left after meeting in-region consumption and storage refill requirements. What happens when seasonal demand declines occur in May and June? In today’s blog, we wrap up our analysis of current outbound capacity utilization and where that leaves the Northeast gas market this spring.

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