Thursday, November 28, 2019

All Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Thanksgiving 2019

Wow, what a great Thanksgiving gift! Another poll.

This is a newly released New Hampshire democrat presidential primary poll: the Emerson poll.

This one, 11/11 - 11/26.

Again, these polls mean nothing, but they sure are fun to watch.

Again, the only purpose of the early caucuses/primaries is for bragging rights, momentum, and donor money. This has nothing to do with delegates. The early primaries are onesie-twosie; very small states; very, very few delegates.

Iowa and New Hampshire: anything less than a strong win = a loss. Period. Dot.

If it ends up 25.1% Buttigieg, and 24.9% Sanders, the headline: "Buttigieg wins New Hampshire."

So, this newest poll, out of New Hampshire.

The numbers add up to 98% which means "undecided" was not on the list or the Emerson folks are not reporting "undecided." But it's hard to believe that all but 2% of New Hampshire folks are "decided."

Buttigieg and Sanders are probably statistically tied at 25%.

Pocahontas and Biden tied at 14%.

Neither Biden nor Pocahontas will improve from here. Both are trending down.

February 11, 2020. Seventy-five days from now.

Pocahontas has had her Beto moment, to paraphrase:
  • "born to be in it"
  • "hell, yes, I will take away your private health insurance"
Now, to steal a book title from Leonard Woolf (husband of Virginia), the future of Pocahontas: "Downhill all the way ..."

Buttigieg: will start to peel away votes from the eight dwarfs each polling less than 5.1%, and will likely peel away votes from Biden. Sanders will peel away votes from Pocahontas.

By the way, Bloomberg lost nothing by not participating in Iowa or New Hampshire. Another NYC billionaire would not have played well in Iowa; and everyone in New Hampshire knows the former NYC mayor very, very well. 

Bloomberg will not be on the ballot in New Hampshire. Steyer polled at 3%.

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