Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Idle Rambling On A Stormy -- Very Stormy -- Evening, Part 1 -- July 10, 2019

Part 2, a continuation of this story can be found here.


For the archives, from BP:

Google: Baby Boomers: Born 1946-1964 (54-72 years old) Generation X: Born 1965-1980 (38-53 years old) Millennials: Born 1981-1996 (22-37 years old) Post-Millennials: Born 1997-Present (0-21 years old) 

Occasional-Cortex: b. 1989

  • timeline: 1985 to 2018
  • tetrawatt hours:
    • 1985: 10,000
    • 2018: 26,000
  • though subtle, the slope of the line is steeper from 2010 to the present compared to earlier periods
  • 26000 - 10000/33 years = 485 Twh/year. At same rate, by the time OC is 70 years old (2059, the world will consume another 19,885 Twh/year, or 45,885 Twh
  • I have read nothing to convince me that global energy use will decline over time 
    • later: digital technologies are estimated to be consuming 9 per cent more energy every year, but the situation is only going to get worse with the wider spread of ever-higher-resolution videos
  • it is difficult to say with precision but it appears that the thickness of the dark green line at the top ("renewables") has not "thickened" much in the last six years
  • without question, the largest change has been natural gas, and one can also argue, coal (again, this is worldwide)
  • going forward
    • I don't see hydro changing much at all
    • I don't see nuclear changing much at all (India, China may be forced to return to nuclear)
    • years ago, ExxonMobil did a great study "proving" there is not enough land mass on earth for wind, solar that would be even remotely adequate to replace fossil fuel; off-shore wind is only along the coast, so using "land mass" is fine
  • EVs
    • will have no material effect on electricity demand
    • suppose I'm wrong: suppose EVs completely replace ICEs -- any thoughts about electricity generation then?
    • repeat: I don't see either hydro or nuclear adding much capacity
  • I have seen nothing to suggest that there will be a battery-breakthrough -- ever
  • current events suggest there may be a bigger short-term problem with batteries than the mainstream media is reporting

No comments:

Post a Comment