Thursday, May 2, 2019

Baltimore Mayor Resigns -- May 2, 2019

This was so unimportant, so non-newsworthy, it was not yet linked at the Drudge Report a few minutes ago, but it's out there: Baltimore mayor, Ms Catherine Pugh, resigned amid FBI, state investigations into her Healthy Holly book. Data points:
  • state and federal investigations into whether she used bulk sales of her self-published children's book "Heathy Holly" to disguise kickbacks [I'm shocked, I'm shocked]
  • first-term Democratic mayo
Yesterday, just yesterday I posted this:
Baltimore: soaring crime, illicit drugs, and inept leaders. But other than that, things are just peachy. 
Folks may remember, it was very good when it was good -- President Obama gave Baltimore $3 million / job created as part of his "job stimulus program.

National Polling

If you can find it, the most recent CNN presidential polling is quite remarkable, apparently. Rush spoke to it; I've not looked for it. CNN apparently has not released all of it or something to that effect.

2020 Democratic presidential nomination, link here:
  • Beto fades; still in sixth place, but now polling about 5 - 6%; at that number won't be able to get any delegates;
  • among the group behind Biden/Bernie, Pocahontas is the one to beat, the latter polling at 8%
  • Bernie could be fading, it appears based on polling trend, just as the fight for super-delegates begins
  • it's not statistically significant, but it appears that Sanders faded significantly after Biden formally entered but Bernie remains solid/steady at 20% -- and that's where it will likely stand
  • for Biden to break above 33%, he will need to steal support from Cory Booker, et al. 
  • the big question is whether those candidates polling 1% will even be on the debate stage, and, if so, will they get any delegates at the DNC convention?
    • if not, it's Biden's nomination at this point.
    • if Biden is denied twice, is it likely his supporters will show out to vote in the general, no matter how much they hate Trump?
  • that 30% for Biden is deceptive: it would suggest that no one will get the nomination on the first vote and that's likely to happen if Pocahontas, Buttigieg, and Kamala can each get 10% of the delegates; Bernie and Biden would split the remaining 70%; it could be close
    • a lot depends on how the super-delegate issue is handled
  • emotionally: I still think there is a strong chance for a brokered convention
  • rationally: the DNC will ensure that the convention does not go woke

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