Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Morning After Missouri; GDP Forecast Drops On Heels Of Dismal Retail Sales -- March 16, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs30111190185205

RBN Energy: propane stocks.

Yesterday, dismal retail sales for February were reported, and worse, retail sales for January were revised downward. I was immediately curious how this would affect "GDPNow." It certainly did. The latest GDPNow report was dated yesterday, March 15, 206:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.9 percent on March 15, down from 2.2 percent on March 9. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.3 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
It's been interesting to follow Obama-Putin chess match these past few months. Updates here

Politics: it appears Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich really mismanaged Missouri.

More politics: The New Times has an op-ed -- will the Democrats ever face an African-American revolt? I can't believe anyone -- especially The NY Times is asking this question. The answer is a resounding no. At best, African-American simply won't turn out to vote. Maybe that's all we can expect from a revolt.
An insurrection now threatens the future of the Republican Party — an insurrection of white working class voters who have been among the party’s most loyal supporters since the civil rights movement of the 1960s. These men and women felt that they lacked an effective political voice, until they heard the siren call of Donald J. Trump.
Could the Democratic Party face a comparable revolt?
Beginning with the administration of Lyndon Baines Johnson, African American voters have provided Democrats with their margin of victory in elections at every level across the nation, year after year.
How have African-American voters been faring over all? Badly. The Democratic debt to black voters is immense, and the party has not paid up.
There is no evidence yet of a political rebellion parallel to the one taking place in the Republican Party, despite the fact that poor black Americans are having a much tougher time than the white working class Republicans flocking to Trump.

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