Monday, March 21, 2016

Active rigs:

	3/21/2016	03/21/2015	03/21/2014	03/21/2013	03/21/2012
Active Rigs	32	107	197	184	205

RBN Energy: How The Brent/WTI Crude Futures Relationship Got Trickier. This is so cool. Back on January 26, 2016, I noted this change in the expiration calendar. I did not understand all the implications but I had some thoughts. More in-depth notes here. Here, RBN Energy is a huge help:

In January 2016 the ICE futures Exchange changed the expiration calendar for its flagship Brent crude contract. The March 2016 contract expired on January 29, 2016 under new calendar rules that stipulate expiration one month and one day prior to delivery. This was done belatedly to reflect a change in the assessment of the physical Brent market that was implemented back in January 2012.

On paper the change is just an overdue action by ICE to properly align the timing calendar for their popular futures contract with the underlying physical market. But in practice - as we suggest in today’s blog, the change has significant impacts on the calculation and analysis of the commonly utilized spread between ICE Brent (the international benchmark crude) and the U.S. equivalent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contract traded on the CME/NYMEX.

Note that this blog is primarily educational – describing the mechanism and impact of the new ICE Brent contract expiration rules on the analysis of the Brent/WTI spread.
We have previously described the Brent physical trading market where traders buy and sell 600 MBbl cargoes produced from four North Sea crude streams (Brent, Forties, Oseburg and Ekofisk – BFOE - see Crazy Little Crude Called Brent Part I).

There are two distinct markets assessed for physical Brent. The first is the so-called “Dated Brent” market that involves transactions between buyers and sellers for BFOE cargoes that have been assigned to equity producers and given a 3-day lifting window for the buyer’s vessel to pick up the crude. Because these cargoes have an assigned load date they are known as dated Brent. Reporting agencies like Platts and Argus assess Brent dated transactions and publish prices used in pricing formulas that determine the value of BFOE and a host of other international crudes.

The second market for physical Brent is the BFOE “cash” market for cargoes that have yet to be assigned a loading date. This market is also known as “paper Brent” and the crude cargoes are traded for delivery during a specified forward month – further out into the future than dated Brent. These forward trades then morph into dated cargoes once a load date is assigned – at least 25 days before the 3-day loading window. In “Crazy Little Crude Called Brent Part 2” we described how the BFOE cash market is linked to ICE Brent futures delivery through an exchange for physical (EFP) mechanism and pricing via an ICE Brent Index that is linked to BFOE market assessments. ICE Brent futures contracts are not physical because they only involve 1000 Bbl parcels and they are cash settled rather than physically delivered. The ICE Brent futures market provides a financial exchange for trading Brent for delivery several years into the future. In “Part 3” of the Brent primer series we discussed market concerns with the quality and volume of Brent stream crudes included in the BFOE market.

It was in response to these concerns that price reporting agencies such as Platts and Argus changed their methodology in 2012 to include more transactions in their Brent Dated assessment by extending the trade window from 21 to 25 days before loading.

If I remember, I might say something about contango later today.