The Second Nominee For The 2013 Geico Rock Award: Labor Department Analysts

We have our second nominee for the 2013 Geico Rock Award: the US Labor Department analysts.

Bloomberg is reporting:

Jobless claims surged by 66,000, the most since the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in November, to 374,000 in the week ended Oct. 5, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 311,000.

Last week it was widely reported that the government shut down as of midnight/early morning of October 1, 2013. It was widely reported that 800,000 government workers would be furloughed. It was also widely reported that these government workers were eligible for unemployment benefits, and in fact, were overwhelming the "system" in Virginia, applying for their benefits.

With 800,000 government workers furloughed and eligible for unemployment, it boggles the imagination that the jobless claims "surged" by only 66,000, up to 374,000.

But this is what really boggles the mind: the median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 311,000.

The group of 47, names unknown, will be our second nominee for the 2013 Geico Rock Award. Good luck to all nominees.

And then this:

The issues in California accounted for about half the jump in applications last week and the dismissal of non-federal employees after Congress failed to compromise on a budget accounted for about another 15,000, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data was released to the press. The effects of the gridlock in Washington may keep claims elevated as employers grow concerned about the economic outlook.  

It appears, the jobless claims (as I predicted) will NOT include furloughed government workers. In fact, that may be stated in the article; if so, I missed it, and I don't have time to follow this story any more. [Oh, yes, here it is: Any claims filed by furloughed federal workers will not show up in the figures in coming weeks, a Labor Department official said last week. They will be tallied in a separate category and will not influence the headline reading, though contractors’ furloughs will count.]

And more:

Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from claims of 304,000 to 340,000. The jump pushed applications up to the highest level since March last week. The previous week’s figure was unrevised at 308,000.

The numbers are meaningless.