Monday, October 29, 2018

CLR Earnings -- 3Q18 -- CLR Has Added Two Additional Rigs In The Bakken

Prior to today, over at "Bakken operators" these were most recent entries for CLR (2017 - 2018):
  • 2Q18 presentation: step change in well performance across the Bakken
  • May, 2018, presentation: 796,000 net acres in the Bakken; 161K boepd, up 48% over 1Q17; 1,100 mboe EUR type curves ($7.9 million) vs 980 mboe EUR type curves in 2017; see SeekingAlpha article;
  • March, 2018: 1.1 million-bbl EUR type curves; 
  • August, 2017: 806,000 net acres in the Bakken; 1.1 million boe EURs 
Now, let's look at 3Q18 earnings, sources:
Data points:
  • income
    • net income: $314 million; $0.84 per diluted share
    • adjusted net income: $337 million; 40.90 per diluted share
    • results topped Wall Street expectations: Zacks -- 81 cents/share 
  • revenue
    • revenue: $1.28 billion
    • results topped expectations: $1.21 billion
  • production
    • production, average 3Q18: 296,900 boepd (beats 3Q18 guidance and consensus)
    • production, average 3Q18: 164,605 bopd (up 5% sequentially; and up 17% yoy)
    • percentage oil: 164,605/296,900 = 55%
  • Bakken production
    • 167,643 boepd; up 23% yoy; compare with 161K boepd back in May, 2018
    • 7K x 365 days = 2,555K (2.5 million bbls) x $50 = $127 million and my hunch it didn't cost an extra penny to grow that production -- at least not many extra pennies; the wells are just getting that much better; and costs are coming down;
  • expects strong finish for CY2018 with "70 of our forecasted 2018 Bakken wells scheduled to be completed by year end"
  • shares are up 28% in last 12 months; trading at around $50
  • production records hit
  • added two rigs in the Bakken, bringing its current total to eight
  • production is expected to average 1.3 million bbls in November, 2018 -- EIA
  • oil production remains unhedged
  • some rivals, including EOG and Pioneer Natural Resources have warned investors that hedging may affect profits

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