Monday, December 28, 2015

The Future Of The Brent / WTI Spread, RBN Energy -- December 28, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs62173187186196

RBN Energy: the future of the Brent / WTI spread.

For the archives: splitters may not be all that successful in the US in light of crude oil exports now being allowed. 

Putin blames Saudi Arabia for upheaval in the oil market: link here [I noticed I forgot to include the link at the time I posted this; I can't find the link but this one is close enough]. Actually, if one looks at the data, a) Saudi has not increased production all that much, if any; b) OPEC has exceeded quotas for the past 18 years (except on two very, very minor occasions); and, c) Saudi has increased domestic requirements for including two new refineries. I'm not siding with the Saudis on this, I'm just saying that Saudi would have had to cut back on a significant amount of production to counter all the new oil coming on the market. By the way, it's my understanding that trying to shut in an oil field is bad, bad news for the oil field. See the note regarding Iran at this post. I'm beginning to wonder if Saudi might be having more problems with its aging fields than is being reported.

But back to Putin: compared to the oil production by the US in the last few years, Saudi's production has remained remarkably steady (yes, I see the blip at the far right) but the Saudis are probably focused on US production when "everyone else" (including Putin) is focused on Saudi Arabia. 

In addition, the suggestion that Saudi Arabia changed course by permitting OPEC members to produce all they could does not hold up: OPEC has been exceeding quotas since 1998:

And the excess is not trivial. Some cherry-picked examples. First column, year; second column, quota; third column, excess (bopd):
  • 1998: 24.5, 27.5 (delta, 3 million bopd)
  • 2002: 22, 27 (delta, 5 million bopd)
  • 2004: 26, 30.5 (delta, 4.5 million bopd)
  • 2012: 25, 30 (delta, 5 million bopd)
  • 2015: 29, 32 (delta, 3 million bopd)
And OPEC's actual production is very, very unpredictable, unreliable: think recent force majeure in Nigeria.

I'm not an apologist for Saudi Arabia; I'm just trying to sort these things out.

Humor: there's an article in today's New York Times suggesting TSA could start denying driver's licenses from states that don't comply with their requirements demanded by a 10-year-old law. Google it if interested, but it ain't gonna happen. Why? It would bankrupt the US airline industry. Here are the states not in compliance but given a waiver because the US government doesn't want the airline industry to fold:
If you’re from Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Guam, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, N. Marianas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Virgin Islands, and Washington, be aware your state driver’s license is permitted only because of an extension that will eventually time-out.
Some states, like Pennsylvania, with a compliance extension, will certainly not have a Real ID- compliant driver’s license by the time the extension expires. In 2012, Governor Tom Corbett signed a Pennsylvania law rejecting compliance with the Real ID law. Alaska, Arizona, and Idaho have passed similar laws.
But actually that's not all of the states. Here are a few more, in even more dire straits:
Right now, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, and the territory of American Samoa driver’s licenses aren’t in compliance with the Real ID law according to DHS. 
(New York has a compliant “enhanced” driver’s license for $30 more than their standard license.) If DHS would require Real ID compliant driver’s licenses to fly today, residents of those states and American Samoa would have to provide an alternate photo ID or be denied boarding.
The Apple Page
Add Hyundai's Sonata To The Apple CarPlay List

Macrumors is reporting:
Hyundai has confirmed that CarPlay will launch in the 2016 Sonata in the first quarter of next year, per the Detroit Free Press. The carmaker will reportedly sell an SD card with new software to get the system for an undisclosed price.
I sort of follow the CarPlay List here.

I see that Apple has copyrights for four more Beats radio stations: B2, B3, B4, and B5. These four are new. Beats 1 has been active for some time. I've never listened to Beats 1, thinking it might be hard to access. Turns out that it's incredibly easy to reach. Two clicks and a password. I don't like the current "live" radio show but I'm sure I'm in the minority. Over time, my hunch is that Beats will be a huge competitor to something like Sirius.  

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