Locator: 44495B.
Pending.
Friday, December 20, 2024
Venture Global To File For IPO -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44492B.
Venture Global files for IPO; scheduled for 2025.
************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $69.55.
Active rigs: 36.
Four new permits, #41450 - #41453, inclusive:
- Operator: Grayson Mill
- Field: Todd (Williams) -- the city of Williston
- Comments:
- Grayson Mill has permits for four Wagenman wells, SESE 32-155-101,
- to be sited 399 FSL and between 1226 FEL and 1136 FEL.
Two permits renewed:
- Formentera Operations: FTH1 ... ATF and FTH1 ... AMB in the Foothills oil field, Burke County.
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 37938, 1,239, BR, Devils Backbone 3A UTFH, McKenzie County.
American Exceptionalism -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44491LDC.
The grid, from oilprice:
From last week:
Data center growth: link here. American exceptionalism:
Now this from Reuters today:
Investors might want to listen to the interview with the governor of Virginia from earlier this week on CNBC. The governor by the way is a Republican in a blue state and will run circles around VP-elect JD Vance in 2028 if that is God's will (inshallah).
Four Reuters Headlines For Investors -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44490LNG.
Tag: Nvidia NVDA LDC batteries EVs electricity Northvolt Run:ai
LNG: The Most Egregious Headline Today -- From Reuters -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44490LNG.
The headline over at Reuters. It may not even be accurate. The final numbers are not in. I assume, if a ship is scheduled to sale on December 31, 2024, and it's delayed by a few hours and pushes off on January 1, 2025, that will be reported as an export as of January 1, 2025, not December 31, 2024. If it doesn't work that way ....
The story is behind a paywall now but the article itself:
- contradicts itself;
- contradicts the headline; and,
- gives a false sense of what's happening in real time.
Very disappointing.
I was also disappointed the way Charles Kennedy chose to report it over at oilprice. He obviously phoned in the story.
Here are additional headlines:
Economic Numbers Today -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44489ECONOMY.
Wow, those economic numbers today! Whoo-hoo!
GDPNow: link here. Steady at 3.1. Another whoo-hoo!
US Government Shutdown -- The Sequel -- Part II -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44488POLITICS.
It appears this is Trump's second government shutdown.
I would be completely amazed if there wasn't a government shutdown -- Friday, tonight, 12:00 midnight is the deadline. Cinderella's coach turns into a pumpkin. This is not rocket science. There are several reasons why the government shutdown will happen (and it makes sense). If I find time, I will post those reasons later, but I'm sure you've already figured them out.
Speaker Mike Johnson says he has a plan. They will vote on it today. If he does have a plan that could possibly pass today it would be a one page plan that makes sure mission essential government employees are at work and being paid with no break in "coverage." Social security is not effected by a government shutdown, so all we're talking about is the military and TSA. And that's about it. And, of course, the bureaucrats that are responsible for funding Elon Musk's various government funded projects, of which there are many.
Trump's first shutdown:
I cannot even recall how that affected me.
But we're facing it again. OMG.
This time it should last about the same length of time -- perhaps a month longer. The new Congress is expected to be sworn in on January 3, 2025. It will take a week or so for the new house speaker to be elected (?) if all goes well, and it probably won't. Then, the inauguration is set for January 20th. President Xi (eleven in roman numerals, but he seventh Chinese president since 2013) will tell Trump to start the inauguration ceremony without him. There could be some stopgap measures "immediately" upon Trump's swearing in but the "complete" bill might not be ready for weeks. Sort of depends on what Elon Musk and DOGE want.
Back To The Bakken -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44487B.
WTI: $69.09.
Monday, December 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 663 for the year
- 40001, conf, Hess, GO-Hoyt-157-97-2833H-2,
- 35510, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-8T,
- 35509, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-7B,
Sunday, December 22, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 660 for the year
- None.
Saturday, December 21, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 659 for the year
- 37667, conf, BR, Nordeng 1B TFH,
- 40039, conf, Hess, BL-Hersel-156-95-0910H-2,
RBN Energy: oil producers appears unlikely to boost spending in 2025 on declining returns.
After languishing since midsummer, the share prices of U.S. oil and gas producers surged after Election Day on a wave of optimism that the sector would flourish under the new administration. However, stocks quickly gave up most of the gains on lackluster Q3 2024 results and a great deal of uncertainty about how — or even if — President-elect Trump’s oft-quoted goal to “drill baby drill” to lower energy costs would impact the strategies and results of the publicly traded E&Ps, especially the 15 major Oil-Weighted producers we cover. In today’s RBN blog, we delve deeper into the impact of the Q3 results of the oil producers on shareholder returns, cash allocation, leverage and capital investment, including the first announcements of 2025 budgets.
Winter Reading Program -- 2024 - 2025 -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44486ARCHIVES.
Economy: the amount of economic news and commentary this morning was simply overwhelming. I will get to it later. But it is quite amazing to say the least.
I have no idea what the market did yesterday -- I guess I saw a headline that said the Dow eked out a small gain -- and have not looked at the market today, nor have I turned on CNBC which I will ignore through Christmas, and probably through the first of the new year. I couldn't possibly be in a better mood with regard to investing but it's way too volatile to watch now. My pet peeve: listening to the talking heads in a period of such volatility.
For the archives: as noted some time ago, I'm in the process of moving all my investments into the accounts of the grandchildren.
That will take some time, of course, and it will not be complete, of course, until the death certificates are received by the administrators of the estate. Hopefully that date is 20+ years into the future, but in the meantime all new money is going into the grandchildren accounts.
I joke that it's now being managed by Sophia, which, of course, it isn't, but "Sophia" has become my metonym when it comes to investing. I'm hoping that by the time she is 17 years old, it becomes more then a metonym and she takes an active interest in managing the estate. More than likely it will be one of her cousins, either Judah or Levi that takes over from Sophia, or even better, the three of them work together as a team. Maybe one of the older cousins will become their mentor / advisor.
December is a huge month for Sophia.
- dividends make up a large part of her new money. March, June, September, and December are the biggest months by far for dividends. One exception: her biggest holding pays dividends in February, May, August, and November
- RMDs from her grandparents are generally taken in December
- it was pure luck but the dividends, with some minor exceptions, and the RMDs, were on the books before December 18th, 2024, this. year. Pure luck.
- approximately 75% of December's new money was put into the market before December 18th, this past week, but the other 25% is yet to be invested
- by the end of the year, again, Sophia will be fully invested in equities, no cash, and no fixed income except as managed / held by professionally-managed IRAs (negligible).
Winter begins tomorrow.
Today, in north Texas, it's a bit cool. Temperatures will reach a high of 57°F today, but then will get warmer over the next few days. Christmas? A high in the low-to-mid-60s. Whoo-hoo.
********************************
Winter Reading Program -- Update
A reminder: my winter reading program, updated.
My "winter reading program": mid-October to mid-May. The summer reading program, mid-May to mid-October, to coincide with the period when Sophia and I can enjoy the outdoor pool.
Books will be continued to be added to the winter reading program at a rate of about one new book every two weeks.
The India Trilogy
The New India: The Unmaking of the World's Largest Democracy, Rahul Bhatia, c. 2024.
Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007.
India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007
US History
A Hell of a Storm: The Battle For Kansas, The End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, David S. Brown, c. 2024.
Four essays back-to-back in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024:
- "The Liberties of a Nation": Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery, by Cara Rogers Stevens, University Pres of Kansas, 400 pages, $54.00, essay / book review by Jean M. Yarbrough, p. 56.
- "The Great Miscalculation": A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32, essay / book review by Christoper Flannery, p. 59.
- "A Rediscovered Gem": The United States, Governed by Six Hundred Thousand Despots: A True Story of Slavery, by John Swanson Jacobs, edited by Jonathan D.S. Schroeder, University of Chicago Press, 328 pages, $115 (cloth), $20 (paper), p. 62.
- "Reconstructing Reconstruction": The Rise and Fall of the Second American Republic: Reconstruction, 1860 - 1920, by Manisha Sinha, Liveright, 592 pages, $39.99 (cloth), $19.99 (paper), p. 64.
The Quakers in America, Thomas D Hamm, Columbia Contemporary American Religion Series, c. 2006.
A mnemonic to remember the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments: Free Citizens Vote. A shout-out to the Texas LRE.
It is absolutely amazing how much Congress accomplished between 1860 and 1870. Amazing. Under incredibly difficult and polarizing times. President Andrew Johnson vetoed the civil rights act in 1866 ensuring black citizenship which the US Congress overrode.
Other
The Genetic Book of the Dead: A Darwinian Reverie, Richard Dawkins, c. 2024. Illustrated by Jana Lenzovå.
The Secret History of Sharks, John Long, c. 2024
Stanford University: A Campus Guide, Richard Joncas, David J. Neuman, and Paul V. Turner, c.1999
Colossus: Bletchley Park's Greatest Secret, Paul Gannon, c. 2006.
The New Annotated Frankenstein, Mary Shelley, edited by Leslie S. Klinger, c. 2017.
Note: The Annotated Emerson, Ralph Waldo Emerson, edited by David Mikics, foreword by Phillip Lopate. c. 2012, was part of last summer's reading program (2024).
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Whiting With Four New Permits -- December 19, 2024
Locator: 44485B.
US House fails to pass Trump-Musk-supported funding bill to keep US government operating into the new year: one wonders if "they" have to cancel the inauguration if the government is shut down.
Great optic: members of US Congress flying home for Christmas break knowing that they have failed to fund the US government to keep it operating.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $69.91.
Active rigs: 36.
Six new permits, #41444 - #41449, inclusive:
- Operators: Whiting (4); Kraken (2):
- Fields: Bear Butte (McKenzie); Dollar Joe (Williams)
- Comments:
- Kraken has permits for two wells in Bear Butte, a Bear Butte well and a Bubba well, NENE 23-148-101;
- to be sited 425 FNL and 435 FEL, and 425 FNL and 501FEL;
- Whiting (Chord Energy) has permits for four Violet Olson wells, lot 2, section 5-155-96,
- to be sited 871 / 882 FNL and 2045 / 2144 FEL
Dry hole:
- 32124, dry, Whiting, Niemitalo 31-15-2XH, Mountrail County;
******************************
The Book Page
Four essays back-to-back in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024:
- "The Liberties of a Nation": Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery, by Cara Rogers Stevens, University Pres of Kansas, 400 pages, $54.00, essay / book review by Jean M. Yarbrough, p. 56."The Great Miscalculation": A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32, essay / book review by Christoper Flannery, p. 59.
- "A Rediscovered Gem": The United States, Governed by Six Hundred Thousand Despots: A True Story of Salvery, by John Swanson Jacobs, edited by Jonathan D.S. Schroeder, University of Chicago Press, 328 pages, $115 (cloth), $20 (paper), p. 62.
- "Reconstructing Reconstruction": The Rise and Fall of the Second American Republic: Reconstruction, 1860 - 1920, by Manisha Sinha, Liveright, 592 pages, $39.99 (cloth), $19.99 (paper), p. 64.
Thursday -- GDP Revised Upward -- December 19, 2024
Locator: 44484B.
Historic: Trump, Elon, DOGE force Congress to scrap bill that would have kept funding to keep government running through March, 2025. Inserted into the bill: a pay raise for Congress. Wow. Inserted without fanfare. Without headlines. Trump not even president yet. And it's the Dems that are upset. Finally, some adulting.
Musk changes everything: he can target most vulnerable GOP candidates coming up for re-election in 2026, and he has very deep pockets for any challenger. Link here.
Market: looks like the open could be green. We'll see. Dow riding longest daily losing streak since 1974.
"Triple witching" tomorrow: not sure how CNBC missed this. A guest brought it up in passing. Expect to see more volatility today. Could see that volatility in first thirty minutes. Then, mid-day and EOD to watch.
Apple buyback, link here:
Iran / Syria fallout continues, link here:
*****************************
Back to the Bakken
Major NG pipeline proposed for the Bakken: in today's Bismarck Tribune.
WTI: $70.42. This has been a relatively long stretch with WTI > $70.
Friday, December 20, 2024: 28 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 658 for the year
- 40039, conf, Hess, BL-Hersel-156-95-0910H-2,
- 35511, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-9B,
RBN Energy: restarts, uprating, microreactors to play important roles in building US nuclear capacity.
The U.S. intends to triple its nuclear generating capacity by 2050 to meet the expected growth in electricity demand and expand carbon-free power production. In a recently related roadmap to achieving that goal, the outgoing Biden administration said the U.S. aimed to have 35 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear capacity either in operation or under construction by 2035. It also outlined the key roles that restarting previously shut reactors, uprating some facilities to produce more power and the development of microreactors could play in the years ahead. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the report’s key findings and recommendations and what they tell us about the future of U.S. nuclear power.
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Wednesday Night -- Mid-December -- A Cold Front Comes Through Dallas -- December 18, 2024
Locator: 44483B.
Before we get started, for the archives, a link to an essay in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 23, by Jeffrey H. Anderson, "Project 2025 Reconsidered." The lede notes that the wiki entry for "Project 2025" is an astonishing 56 pages long, including references, when printed out. Anderson doesn't mention the font or the pitch but still .... 56 pages long. Those references? There are 262 references.
Now, back to the blog entry.
I guess the market imploded today. I haven't checked. I've only seen the headlines and read e-mail sent to me. First thought: everything JPow said today was already expected; there were no surprises. So, his remarks were only part of the reason why the market imploded. But there's another reason. I know what that reason is. Not going to mention it. I hate the push back. But again, I know I'm right. Hint: we'll know more by midnight, December 20, 2024. [Later, 11:35 p.m. CST, nailed it. Wow, that was fast.]
Here in Texas, the "weatherman" is talking about the winter warning in NORTHDAKOTA. He must like the word. He said it several times, NORTHDAKOTA. LOL. Meanwhile, the cold front that has moved into north Dallas has forced some folks to change from short-sleeve shirts to long-sleeve shirts. [Not me. I'm still wearing my camiseta de manga corta with the Vanderbilt logo on it.]
I'm in a great mood. I'm reading this week's issue of the Claremont Review of Books. I had planned to let my subscription lapse. Nope, I'm keeping it (the subscription). The writing is so much better than what I find in the New York Review of Books, and unlike the latter, the Claremont Review actually reviews books. I've just ordered a book from Amazon -- a book that was reviewed in the current issue of the Claremont Review -- a quarterly.
Speaking of which, I was reading Powerline on line this morning about 4:00 a.m. and one of the "founders" of the site said he couldn't get past the New York Times paywall. Are you kidding me? A journalist that doesn't subscribe to the on-line New York Times. You have to be kidding me. Even I subscribe to The New York Times AND The Washington Post.
One of several great essays in the current issue of Claremont Review
is an essay by Christopher Caldwell, "Speaking Trumpian." It explains a
lot. Trump-haters who refuse to read the article do so at their own
peril. [Are you listening Whoopi?]
Quick: name the two most important events that happened in the month of April, 1865.
Meanwhile,
it's another Lana Del Rey night. Seriously. She [Lana Del Rey] must
scare the heck out of Taylor Swift. One swings to teenie boppers and
their 45-year-old dads; the other swings with felons. Apparently it's
cool to be a felon these days. Just ask Luigi Mangione -- Luigi -- you
can't make this stuff up -- or Hunter. Or, I guess, The Donald. LOL.
By the way, speaking of ordering a book from Amazon. Atlantic, or is it The Atlantic. Whatever. The Atlantic
has an article "why online returns are a hassle now." Yes, I know what
they're talking about and my comments really aren't relevant but my
experience is important nonetheless -- are you listening Jeff Bezos.? Amazon is so incredibly good about getting my orders to me -- I've
talked about this before -- I no longer track my orders. I'm sure I'm in
the top 1% of Amazon customers ... okay maybe top 10% -- and I've never
missed a package from Amazon. I won't even tell Amazon if I miss a
package. It's happened twice, and both times I tracked the package down
-- delivered to the wrong unit in our apartment complex. Jeff, whatever
you're doing, keep it up.
McDonald's: a ten-piece order of chicken McNuggets for $1.00. Yes, you read that correctly. a ten-piece order of chicken McNuggets for $1.00. McDonald's prices are coming down faster than Biden's poll numbers. Ever since he pardoned his son. The one that didn't die of brain cancer due to Agent Orange in Iraq.
Time for a musical interlude. Okay, we'll do that later. Can't decide which one to feature. Maybe "Rasputin" by Bony M.
Reminder: Chord Energy is now Oasis, Whiting, and Enerplus. I hope I live long enough to see the entire Bakken play "owned" by one operator.
After years of working on it, I finally have the kitchen exactly like I want it.
It is so fun to cook (not necessarily bake) when the kitchen is set up perfectly. I'm watching some YouTube videos in the background and it just dawned on me -- for the perfect cooking experience, your kitchen needs to be arranged like an orchestra -- the strings, the woodwinds, the brass, the percussion. The most used herbs and spices and soy sauces and balsamic vinegars need to be out on the counter to the right. The pots and pans and woks needs to be immediately available hanging from the ceiling or in wide cabinets on either side of la estufa. The utensils -- separated by "function" on the counter out in the open -- serving spoons, slotted spoons, serving forks, chopsticks, spatulas -- and again, out in the open, immediately available. No opening drawers looking for something while cooking. Serving bowls out on the counter toward the dining room table.If Target could "run" their stores like they "run" their ads between YouTube vidoes, Target would be much better shopping experience. Not gonna happen.
I wonder. It seems the group who I seldom see covered: The Mamas and The Papas. That suggests to me that their hits were done so well no one dares cover them. Linda Ronstadt, just the opposite. Perhaps the best rock-and-roll vocalist didn't write any of her own hits (needs to be fact checked) but her covers became the standards. Pretty amazing when you think about it.
Jesse Watters is still the best "political talk show" out there. A better entertainer than Rush Limbaugh, but not a better analyst. There was no political analyst better than Rush. He unilaterally saved the US from Hillary. Having said that, I still try to catch the first fifteen minutes of The View.
If I want to "re-live" my halcyon days in southern California, I turn to Fleetwood Mac. "Go Your Own Way" and "Tusk." From where do these folks spring? Supernatural. Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham, Christine McVie. Wow.
On Hulu now, a Leonard Cohen documentary, "Hallelujah." Link here to wiki.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.58.
Active rigs: 37.
Six new permits, #41437 - #41442, inclusive:
- Operators: Whiting (4); Hess (2):
- Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie); Wheelock (Williams)
- Comments:
- Hess has permits for two GO-Seaton wells, SWSW 34-157-98,
- to be sited 330 FSL and 1163 FWL, and 330 FSl and 1196 FWL;
- Whiting (Chord Energy) has permits for four Jefferson Federal wells, SESW 14-150-103,
- to be sited 975/9978 FSL and 1325/1424 FWL.
Two producing wells completed:
- 34303, 2,332, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23G,
- 34306, 1,285, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23B,
Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- December 18, 2024
Locator: 44482CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Those stranded astronauts? They've been stranded another month -- now it's been pushed back from February to March. That will be eight months. That's the earliest. This is simply bizarre. One year of their life they will never get back. No medical emergency so far; this cannot last forever. But, of course, that raises the issue: does NASA even have a plan B for stranded astronauts.
Housing starts, permits: yada, yada, yada.
US current account -- Trump is right again-- even before he's sworn in: one of the biggest current account deficits ever. A negative $310.95 billion vs a negative $286.6 estimate. This explains Trump's focus on tariffs. This is fascinating. This is the biggest story today that won't be reported.
The only thing I'm following today: will AAPL turn green before the end of the day?
*********************
History
Missouri Compromise: 1820 (better name: the Missouri-Maine Act)
Kansas-Nebraska Act: 1854
Dred Soctt: 1857
Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 59: "The Great Miscalculation," book review by Christopher Flannery. The book:
- A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of the Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32.
I find it astonishing that journalists today seem to be aghast at what the US Supreme Court has done recently with regard to states' rights. It's almost as if journalists no longer read history. Exhibit A:
That 36°30' line? It only applied to the Louisiana Purchase, and thus it only affected "the line" dividing Missouri (to the north) from Arkansas (to the south). Kentucky and a northern slice of Tennessee were also north of the 36°30' line. Virginia, of course, also north of the line, was a slave state at the time these bills were being discussed and passed.
From National Geographic:
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution.
- Longer version here.
Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 18, 2024
Locator: 44481CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Marvel, Broadcam: JPM's top picks.
Meta, Reddit: MS's top picks.
Robinhood: Keybank names it as its top pick.
Pre-market: it appears the Dow could reverse its 9-day losing streak.
Tea-leaves: nuclear is not in America's future. Certainly not in my investing lifetime.
Tea-leaves: the US state that could have a huge next four years? Virginia. LDCs.Virginia, a blue state that votes for GOP.
Tea-leaves: the four T's -- Trump, tariffs, taxes, and the wall. Note: "the wall" is a metonym for the entire immigration issue and homeland security. Virginia's governor Glenn Youngkin, extended segment on CNBC this a.m. Setting himself up to run for president in 2024?
Christmas: I think folks are forgetting that Christmas Eve, next Tuesday, is now less than one week away. USPS mailing deadlines have passed. Amazon? Doing just fine. Still same day delivery if one lives near a fulfillment center.
Pet food: have you ever noticed all the new dog food entrants? Not so true for cat food? Why? Dogs, omnivores. Cats, strict carnivores. One choice: tuna in tins.
In our apartment complex, boxes of Chewy arrive daily. Unlike Amazon, in apartment complexes, Chewy does not deliver to one's front door. Chewy apparently delivers by UPS at common mail center or manager's office. Amazon requires its drivers to deliver to door.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And
now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things
Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial
revolution.
- Longer version here.
Hump Day -- December 18, 2024
Locator: 44480B.
Morning Joe: doing everything he can to survive. For the first time ever (unlikely but not in a very, very long time) Joe Scarborough appears on CNBC for an incredibly long segment with Andrew Ross Sorkin. Don't forget the Ross. Joe Kernan noted that CNBC and MSNBC are both in trouble with Comcast's decision to spin off the cable networks.
Pelosi: hip replacement in Germany; at the US (Army) military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany. PBS. Forbes.
Beirut, 1960s, link here. BleeckerStreet, then.
Measels, Congo. NYT today.
Stagflation: Joe Kernan, CNBC, today. Wow, what does he want? He's starting to sound like a rancher. Or a banker.
The day the music died: Canada pushes out target for net-zero to 2050. Had been 2035. Link here. No paywall here.
Another Biden legacy: Biden's agencies fail to meet fleet EV targets. Link here. Without the paywall.
Biden: hasn't had a positive favorability rating since 2021. Link here.
Long thinking: the WSJ. Nvidia.
Taiwan: power failure. TSMC.
LNG: Trump has it right. How did Biden miss this? Not how, but "why"?
********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.56.
Thursday, December 19, 2024: 27 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 657 for the year
- 35511, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-9B,
- None.
RBN Energy: Chevron's 105-year-old Texas refinery gets a new lease on life.
More than 15 years into the Shale Era, the U.S. refining sector’s response to burgeoning production of light, sweet crude oil continues. Earlier this month, Chevron completed the long-planned, $400 million renovation and expansion of the century-old refinery in Pasadena, TX, which the company acquired from Petrobras in 2019. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the refinery’s extensive history, why Chevron bought the facility five years ago, and how the just-finished project will enable the integrated oil and gas giant to make fuller use of its Permian oil bounty.
Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Rambling On A Tuesday Night -- National Emergencies -- Never Quit Reading -- December 17, 2024
Locator: 44479CONSTITUTION.
I don't follow politics as closely as some, but I'm getting a kick out of the current political situation.
Imagine if you are the incoming president and you know you have only four years to get things done.
You know how a president's initiatives can be thwarted and delayed through any number of means.
Already some political leaders are taking steps to "Trump-proof" their cities and states. California's governor Newsom may be the poster child for such efforts.
It may be a good time to learn a bit more about the National Emergencies Act (link to wiki here) enacted on September 14, 1976.
Just for starters, some might argue that a national debt of $36 trillion is a national emergency.
Some might argue that with the rise of large data centers, the national electricity grid has become a national emergency.
Infrastructure? Highways? A national emergency? Perhaps.
Shipping? The Jones Act? A national emergency? Perhaps.
Oil pipelines? Alaska? Keystone XL? National emergencies? Perhaps.
And that's just a start.
From wiki:
Powers available under this Act are limited to the 136 emergency powers Congress has defined by law.
Seems more than enough to get the ball -- or balls -- rolling.
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The Book Page
From a book review of the book, The Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 59. On line here. "The Great Miscalculation," Christopher Flannery.
In A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, David S. Brown identifies 1854 as the moment when “Jefferson’s southern-oriented, plantation-based, and Democratic Party-powered America” began to give way to what would become “Lincoln’s northern-oriented, factory-based, and Republican Party-powered America.”
This great transformation had “everything to do” with the Kansas-Nebraska Act, introduced on January 4, 1854, by Illinois Democratic senator Stephen A. Douglas and—after months of contention in the Senate and House, and in the public prints and public squares—signed into law by Democratic President Franklin Pierce on May 30, 1854. Brown calls it “the most lethal piece of legislation to ever clear Congress.” He follows a long line of historians in holding that the act put the nation “irreparably on the road to Civil War.” Its key explosive ingredient was the repeal of the Missouri Compromise of 1820’s prohibition of slavery in the Louisiana Territory north of 36° 30’. As Harry V. Jaffa wrote in Crisis of the House Divided (1959), that repeal, coupled with Lincoln’s opposition to it, was an “absolute sine qua non of the advent of the Civil War.”
“Bleeding Kansas”—the localized civil war between pro- and anti-slavery settlers in the Kansas territory between 1854 and the start of full-blown Civil War—was a direct result of this catastrophic legislation. Other results came on fast and hard: John Brown’s Pottawatomie massacre (part of Bleeding Kansas) and his later raid at Harpers Ferry; the collapse of the party system, the disappearance of the Whig Party, and the rise of the Republican Party; the infamous Dred Scott decision; and the breakdown of the “once sacred system” of historic compromises that had held the Union together for 80 years. All “owed something small or large” to the “decisions made on slavery and territorial development during the fateful Kansas-Nebraska debates,” writes Brown.
Most fatefully—I say this with slightly more emphasis than Brown does—the repeal of the Missouri Compromise “aroused” Abraham Lincoln and brought him back into politics. The Peoria speech Lincoln delivered in October 1854, in direct response to Douglas’s legislation, was of a sort he had never delivered before. As Jaffa wrote in these pages, “it marked the first and fullest elaboration of the political, rhetorical, and philosophical strategy that he would pursue to the end of the decade and, indeed, to the end of his life” (“Lincoln in Peoria,” Fall 2009).
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A Musical Interlude
Wow, I simply "love" this singer.
From google:
Although it was the "original" that haunted me for years, I would rather listen to Lana Del Rey's cover.
I had probably just experienced the most intense three months of my life up to that point in my life, and even at age 73, that summer may still be the most intense, most complicated three months of my life. I was on my way home, late August, via West Virginia, late summer, 1971. John Denver's Take Me Home Country Roads was the hit song that summer, released in the spring of 1971. I was torn between staying on the east coast and returning home to the Dakotas. I really had no choice, but it was incredibly difficult. To this day, I wonder how it would have been had I taken the other fork in that road.
Whiting With Five New Permits
Locator: 44478B.
Grid: link here. With Doug Burgum involved, this is a no-brainer for North Dakota.
The U.S. Department of Energy has zeroed in on three regions of the country it has determined are in major need of new electric transmission infrastructure and eligible for future federal funding, it announced on Monday.
The DOE selected Lake Erie-Canada, including parts of Lake Erie and Pennsylvania; the Southwestern Grid Connector, including parts of Colorado, New Mexico, and a small portion of western Oklahoma; and the Tribal Energy Access Corridor, including central parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and five Tribal Reservations, as National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors.
The DOE has narrowed down an initial list of national interest corridors to three from 10. The designation would allow the federal government to expedite the development of grid expansion projects. It is meant to help areas that grapple with high electricity bills and power disruptions attract more investment in transmission capacity.
The comment period for the three corridors would extend to February 2025, after President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has said he may declare a national energy emergency to expedite the construction of new electric capacity and domestic energy.
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Back to the Bakken
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.08.
Active rigs: 37.
Six new permits, #41431 - #41436, inclusive:
- Operator: Whiting (5); Neptune Operating
- Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie); Arnegard (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Neptune Operating has a permit for a Gullickson well, SESE 36-150-101,
- to be sited 313 FSL and 1170 FEL;
- Whiting has permits for five Jefferson Federal wells, SWSW 14-150-103;
- to be sited between 968 FSL and 974 FSL and between 1161 FWL and 1292 FWL.
Two permits renewed:
- 39520, BR, State Dodge 3C, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County;
- 39521, BR, State Dodge 3D, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County;
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 34558, 180, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23DXA, McKenzie County.
- 40609, 2,617, MRO, Selmer 21-14H, Dunn County. Bailey oil field;
Apple: Updating -- December 17, 2024
Locator: 44476AAPL.
All US equity markets will finish in the red today. Not AAPL.
Not only green, but sits atop the market. Will finish up almost 1%; up almost $2.43.
Market cap at $3.83 trillion.
Later:
Today:
That p/e is concerning but the forward p/e is much more reassuring:
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The Benchmark
Updating An Old Slawson Submariner Federal Well -- December 17, 2024
Locator: 44475SUBMARINER.
The Slawson Submariner Federal wells are tracked here, but have not been updated in a long time.
The well:
- 32274,2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2 SLH, 31 stages; 2.6 million lbs; 63 stages; 13.8 million lbs; Big Bend, t6/19; cum 165K 2/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line 2/21; cum 377K 10/21; cum 660K 10/24;
Production at time of initial drilling:
| BAKKEN | 2-2020 | 29 | 33809 | 34370 | 35236 | 29001 | 11750 | 17106 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 10 | 9339 | 9105 | 12698 | 8008 | 3058 | 3899 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 30 | 22796 | 22195 | 3227 | 21587 | 13667 | 5322 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 28 | 13167 | 13915 | 23698 | 11581 | 6000 | 4036 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 31 | 18918 | 18551 | 31633 | 16546 | 5865 | 8490 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 17 | 15248 | 14894 | 2811 | 13205 | 609 | 10860 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 16 | 8822 | 9383 | 17092 | 7652 | 0 | 6615 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 9 | 4262 | 3861 | 8240 | 3971 | 1427 | 2035 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 21 | 25592 | 24942 | 87242 | 22504 | 0 | 19587 |
2021 - 2022, with jump in production:
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 16126 | 16513 | 15411 | 14191 | 12777 | 1259 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 16069 | 15935 | 15332 | 13646 | 9762 | 3744 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 14154 | 13887 | 15995 | 11958 | 7638 | 4165 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 17 | 5945 | 6406 | 8498 | 4992 | 3316 | 1591 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 22615 | 22480 | 18977 | 19628 | 10039 | 9439 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 29 | 26095 | 26137 | 21391 | 22702 | 9418 | 13141 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 29 | 28228 | 27807 | 25506 | 24657 | 6143 | 18369 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 30527 | 31150 | 30088 | 26866 | 7302 | 19410 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 29 | 33595 | 33546 | 32875 | 29531 | 9524 | 19862 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 23 | 17946 | 17345 | 22203 | 15383 | 5890 | 9377 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 31 | 20241 | 20809 | 30153 | 17632 | 9325 | 8152 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 19855 | 19868 | 34086 | 17036 | 5335 | 11551 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 24 | 22663 | 23014 | 27861 | 19664 | 1341 | 18203 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 13 | 12379 | 11011 | 11833 | 10654 | 369 | 10220 |
Current production, still a great well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2024 | 26 | 3743 | 3254 | 3242 | 9850 | 9480 | 242 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2024 | 30 | 4350 | 4507 | 3016 | 10653 | 10021 | 483 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 30 | 4784 | 4764 | 3975 | 11709 | 9145 | 2415 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 30 | 5283 | 5029 | 5194 | 10667 | 10380 | 136 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 30 | 5910 | 6048 | 6281 | 11139 | 10989 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 13 | 2214 | 2714 | 2912 | 3936 | 3486 | 385 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 5089 | 4782 | 7086 | 9353 | 8967 | 237 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 5553 | 5987 | 7949 | 9097 | 8243 | 699 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 28 | 5333 | 4953 | 5692 | 8609 | 8372 | 97 |
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