Link here to Tsvetana Paraskova.
This article is exactly in line with what the "tea leaves" are telling me.
This is huge.
One can argue "it's just talk," but for those following global events the past two years, this article seems to fall right in
line.
From the linked article;
The surge of the Delta variant around the globe is set to partially delay oil demand recovery into the next year when robust economic growth and stronger recovery in fuel consumption will see global oil demand averaging 100.8 million barrels per day and exceeding pre-COVID levels, OPEC said on Monday [September 13, 2021], raising its 2022 demand forecast by a shocking 900,000 bpd.
Next year, oil demand worldwide is now expected to jump by around 4.2 million bpd compared to 2021, an upward revision of 900,000 bpd compared to last month’s assessment, OPEC said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today.
This year, total global oil demand remains unchanged at 96.7 million bpd for the whole of 2021. But the fourth-quarter demand was revised slightly down, by 110,000 bpd from the August estimate of 99.82 million bpd to 99.7 million bpd now, OPEC said in its September report.
“Oil demand in 3Q21 has proved to be resilient, supported by rising mobility and traveling activities, particularly in the OECD. At the same time, the increased risk of COVID-19 cases primarily fuelled by the Delta variant is clouding oil demand prospects going into the final quarter of the year, resulting in downward adjustments to 4Q21 estimates,” the cartel noted. Demand for 2022 was revised up by 300,000 bpd for OECD and by 600,000 bpd for non-OECD countries compared to last month’s outlook.
Last week, reports emerged that OPEC could cut its 2022 demand forecast, but the organization now says it believes that the Q4 2021 weakness in demand would only delay the recovery to next year.
900,000 bbls/day is very, very close to a cool one-million bbls.
OPEC controlling prices. The Donks are busy sticking a shank in shale and tard sands. Bunch of Buffet cronies. Soft. Commie. Limpdicks.
ReplyDeleteThat's the "supply" side, OPEC controlling prices, and Biden's energy policies affection US production.
DeleteBut the "shocking" story Tsvetana is writing about is the "demand" side.
The "supply story" is interesting and to a great extent political and geo-political, but the "demand story" is absolutely fascinating in light of all the efforts for the past twenty years to kill fossil fuel.
To continue that line of thought, if, indeed, political efforts are successful in slowing US fossil fuel production, all things being equal, we should see some serious price increases in crude oil and gasoline that we haven't seen in quite some time.
DeleteThe "market" does not seem to "appreciate that."
As an investor, this might be a Buffett opportunity: be greedy when others are fearful ... and then there was something else on the flip side.
i've been working on that report, but gave it a rest after i figured what the OPEC quotas should be for August (they don't post new quotas, each one is a percentage change from the previous one, going back to April 2020, a real clusterf**k to compute)
ReplyDeleteanyhow, it appears we had a 2.77 million barrel per day global shortage in August, exacerbated by OPEC production coming in 684,000 bpd below their quota...half of that was Nigeria; another third was Angola...
this ain't quite right: "This year, total global oil demand remains unchanged at 96.7 million bpd for the whole of 2021." but i don't blame her; this is what OPEC says in their summary: For 2021, world oil demand is expected to increase by 6.0 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections and despite offsetting revisions within the quarters.
but if you look at their table, 2021 demand is clearly revised 110,000 barrels per day higher..
https://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/august2021opecreportglobaloildemand.jpg
the confusion arises because 2020 demand was also revised 110,000 barrels per day higher, meaning the year over year demand figure was unchanged..
The tea leaves all suggest there will be a significant deficit going into 2022.
Delete