Starting The Weekend -- First Note -- October 20, 2018

ICYMI: earlier I posed this "riddle" -- fill in the blank --

• calf : yearling : cow
• lamb : ______ : sheep

The answer will be found below the fold.

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Lotteries And Fist Fights Gone Awry

Lottery: no one won the big prize. Out of guilt (a long story) I bought five tickets ($10) for my wife. I told her not to throw the tickets away; a lot of lesser prizes were awarded. We both agreed that if we won a million-dollar prize it wasn't worth the effort to claim it. We're going for the "big one." [Later: as noted, I bought 5 tickets for a total cost of $10 dollars. We had a "1+1" winner which was worth $8.]

Lottery 2: the Brewers are still in it. And based on early reports they go into game 7 with a huge advantage. So, the odds of the Brewers vs Boston in the World Series looks like 5 - 1 odds. Better than that other lottery. [Not to be: the Brewers soundly beaten -- 5 -1 was the score -- same as my odds of them winning. What a coincidence.]

The week in energy: this may be behind the paywall. From the Financial Times today. With regard to the Khashoggi affair, a fist-fight gone awry.

Consensus: There will be targeted US sanctions against some Saudi individuals, which are likely to be “enough that the administration can argue they are punishing the bad actors, but not so much that Riyadh will be forced to respond”.

If that is indeed the outcome, he added, “crude oil flows should be unscathed”. That appears to have been the view in the market: Brent crude drifted downwards during the week from $81.50 on Monday to about $80.30 on Friday. 

By the way, the Khashoggi affair reminds me of something Sir Saint Obama once said.

"They bring a smart watch. We bring a bone saw."

And, of course, this gives new meaning to "kick 'em when they're down." -- Eric Holder, former US Attorney General and likely future presidential candidate.

Also from the FT:

The Trump administration has, since last year, been working on a plan to bail out struggling coal-fired and nuclear power plants, but now appears to have shelved the idea after opposition from economic and security advisers. 

Siemens was heading for a big contract win to supply power equipment to Iraq. Then the US government intervened, and now General Electric is poised to win a substantial share of the business. 

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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

	10/20/2018	10/20/2017	10/20/2016	10/20/2015	10/20/2014
Active Rigs	71	54	33	68	191

Price / number of active rigs: the other day, a reader noted the correlation between the price of WTI and the number of active rigs in North Dakota:

• $191: !40 rigs
• $70: 70 rigs
• $50: 50 rigs
• $35: 33 rigs

Answer to the "riddle" above: hogget.