Wednesday, February 5, 2014

So, Where Are We ...


Airline suspends flights into / out of Jamestown, cites pilot storage.

Producing mineral acres in the Bakken Sanish are going for $40,000/acre.

For newbies, a quick look at what we know about the Bakken:
  • the Bakken is the largest continuous reservoir of oil ever found in the lower 48; light, sweet oil
  • after the 2013 USGS Survey, officials doubled the size of the Bakken/Three Forks: 7.3 billion bbls recoverable; could be as much as 11 billion bbls recoverable
  • one trillion bbls of original oil in place (OOIP) -- other estimates
  • 8 wells/1280-ace spacing unit: 24 billion bbls recoverable oil
  • 16 wells/1280-acre spacing unit: 50 billion bbls recoverable oil
  • EURs: 400,000 to 1,000,000 bbls
  • 10,000 feet deep; 10,000-foot laterals; total "depth": 20,000 feet; 30-stage fractures; 3 million lbs proppants; sand and/or ceramics; EOG is doing huge fracks: 60 stages; 10 million lbs sand only
  • $10 million/well historically; costs coming down; maybe $8.5 million/well in 2014; some lower
  • 100,000 bbls in 6 months to 3 years; will produce for 25 to 39 years
  • 2,000 permits/year; drilling/completing about 2,000 wells/year; on track for 2,900 permits in 2014
  • 2,000 wells/year x $10 million/well; $20,000 million/year drilling = $20 billion/year drilling
  • 7,000 active wells in North Dakota; 980,000 bopd; 100 bopd/well (California with about 60,000 active wells); North Dakota #2 in US production, behind Texas
  • 190 active rigs (range 180 - 195) 
  • high density spacing; Oasis will drill 21 wells in one 640-acre section; 42 wells/1280-acre spacing in better Bakken
  • Middle Bakken; four benches in the Three Forks; the Three Forks will increase the OOIP estimates by about 60% (compared to the Middle Bakken only); the Three Forks through the Bakken, but seems to extend beyond the periphery of the middle Bakken prospect;Whiting tends to refer to the upper Three Forks in its northern ops area as the Sanish; Whiting tends to refer to the upper Three Forks in its southern ops area as the Pronghorn Sand 
  • fracking a new well improves production of a neighboring, existing well ("halo effect")
  • North Dakota daily production: at this link, click on the "Director's Cut" at the very top
  • 2012 Bentek study suggests 2.2 million bopd; 3 billion cf natural gas/day 
CBR continues to expand: new rules, regulations won't be in effect until 2015 at the earliest

Oil: $98. Longest, sustained period of "high-price" oil ever.

Keystone XL 2.0 South is on-line, Cushing, OK, to the Texas gulf coast

US State Department green lights Keystone XL; President Obama has not yet read the report; see poll

Tesoro announces open season on new in-state Bakken crude oil, storage system (minimum storage, one million bbls)

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