Thursday, July 25, 2013

The Race Is On

For those interested in the race between the Eagle Ford in the Western Gulf, and the Bakken in the Williston Basin, CarpeDiem has a nice posting today. CarpeDiem suggests both formations will reach one (1) million bopd the second half of next year (2014), and further opines that the Eagle Ford is likely to hit that "magical" target sooner.

I think the Bakken will hit one (1) million bopd sometime in the 1st half of 2014, and it's very possible, it could even happen in December, 2013, or January, 2014.


With regard to CarpeDiem's note:

Eagle Ford vs Bakken production will be very interesting to watch.

Eagle Ford is in the Western Gulf.
Bakken is in the Williston Basin.

Go to the 2013 USGS assessment of the Bakken, at this link:

Go to slide 17.

The Western Gulf (Eagle Ford) is estimated to have 1.73 billion bbls recoverable oil The Bakken: 7.4 billion bbls recoverable (median); the high end was 11 billion bbls of oil.

If those estimate are correct, the Bakken should have 3 to 4 x the Eagle Ford production over the next 30 years. If the Eagle Ford exceeds the Bakken in the short term, that should be due to factors such as existing infrastructure. If the Eagle Ford continues to out-produce the Bakken, it raises questions on the accuracy of the assessment of the Eagle Ford.

By the way, the USGS graphic of the various shale plays in the lower 48 does not draw the various plays to scale; note the legend. Not drawing these plays to scale is very interesting for a "scientific" study. I've hinted at the reasons before why the USGS would do it this way. I prefer this graphic sent in by a reader


The Race Is On, George Jones

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