Thursday, September 7, 2017

The Market And Energy Page, Part 2, T+230 -- September 7, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. In addition, the mixing of facts and opinions is a recurring feature on the blog. If something on the blog seems wrong, it probably is. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Whiting has announced a reverse stock split, any whole number between 1:2 and 1:6.  They better go 1:6 so they don't have to do it again any time soon.

Wow, catching a wave. US "final estimate" of 2Q17 productivity rose 1.5 percent vs the 1.3 percent increase expected. This is leaving the CNBC crowd perplexed; not supposed to happen. The government also revised up a 2Q17 GDP growth to 3.0 percent from a 2.6 percent pace. Labor costs: barely budged: up a paltry 0.2 percent. Compare with ObamaCare costs. LOL. A bunch of numbers at the link but bottom line: output per worker surged at a 4.0 percent rate, the fastest since the third quarter of 2014, after rising at a 1.8 percent at the start of the year.

GDP Now: Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — September 6, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.9 percent on September 6, down from 3.2 percent on September 1.
The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent after yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.24 percentage points to -0.14 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the BEA. 
30-year mortgage rate hits another 2017 low. Previous low was reported August 24, 2017; now, less than a month later, another low. Data points:
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 3.78% with 0.5 point
  • down from previous week: 3.82% 
  • one year ago: 3.44%
10-year Treasury: apparently it also hit a new 2017-low
  • for the second consecutive week, a new low
  • today: so low, I included the link (dynamic link): 2.06%
  • I couldn't believe it; and now it's being reported the 10-year Treasury is below 2.05%
  • this will really confuse Goldman Sachs
What's the market doing with all this good news? Futures went from "red" to "green."

First time jobless claims: spike to nearly 300,000. Data points:
  • at 298,000 -- the number jumped 62,000
  • highest in five years
  • driven by Hurricane Harvey
  • the 4-week average rose to 250,250 but this week's number and the post-Irma number will eventually pull the 4-week average to new records 
XOM CEO: our distribution systems are as full as they can be. Link here to a CNBC video. We'll know in a couple of hours if EIA numbers confirm that -- when the weekly petroleum data is reported. Interestingly enough, in our area (DFW, TX), the XOM station in our neighborhood has been without gas since September 1, 2017, Friday, when Hurricane Harvey hit landfall. The Shell station across the street was back in business almost immediately, though with intermittent supply outages. 

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