Friday, February 3, 2017

Market Stories On T+14: Huge Jobs Report For Donald Trump; Can't Wait For Tweet -- February 3, 2017

Market late morning: up 180 points. 

Market surges on Trump's job numbers: surges 112 points on the opening!  Dow 30 back up over 20,000. Wow!

Another fake story? I'm waiting for The New York Times to wade in. Yesterday it was the "bacon shortage." Today it's the "severe vegetable shortage in Europe, depriving Europeans of spinach, broccoli." Why? Oh, it's global warming -- "European consumers have been plunged into crisis by a vegetable shortage caused by severe weather. I can't make this stuff up.

Here in Texas? Vegetables are in season:


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Pre-Market

Jobs day: everyone watching for first monthly jobs report under President Trump. Forecast: economy will add 175,000 jobs; unemployment will remain unchanged at 4.7%. Some on Fox Business News think we could see a blow-out number of over 200,000, some even say 225,000. The whisper number is 230,000; now talking heads saying much higher numbers. Analyst says Houston oil jobs coming back faster than expected. Market is up 50 points in anticipation.

And the numbers are: 227,000. Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.8%. Labor force participation up. Hourly wage up 0.1%. Labor participation up to 62.9% -- first movement in some time.
  • retail: 46K
  • construction: 36K
  • manufacturing: 5K
Government jobs? Down 10,000
Analysis: Trump deserves credit; enthusiasm under Trump. Market jumps; futures now up 84 points.  Fox News gives much credit to Trump; CNBC says it has nothing to do with Trump. Now CNBC says the "great moves (stock market, jobs) not due to Trump winning, due to Hillary losing." Wow, I'm glad I've moved to Fox News

Jobs: Japan putting together package to bring 700,000 jobs to the US; putting finishing touches on a package that could create a $450-billion market. Finally mentioned on Fox Business "Morning With Maria" at 7:43 a.m. Central Time. Finally, Stu Varney, 7:52 a.m. Central Time excited about this news, but Maria and others change subject again. I guess everyone is waiting for Abe's package. But remember: when you see Abe's package, you heard about it here first.

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Oil

WTI: just under $54 before jobs report.

OPEC crude oil cut: OPEC and Russia are "shielding Asia from supply cuts agreed in a landmark deal last year as they fight to protect their market share in Asia." Data points:
  • Asia is OPEC's core and growing market
  • re-balancing will be slower in Asia unless regional demand picks up
  • signs of an ongoing Asian oversupply
  • ~ 30 chartered supertankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are sitting in the waters outside Asia's oil trading hub of Singapore and southern Malaysia
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Natural Gas

Warmists tell us this winter has been the warmest winter in the US in a gazillion years. The warmest winter.

One assumes, with the warm weather, REX 3, and the Marcellus, natural gas stores should be surging. Not so fast! Natural gas stores have dropped below the five-year average. Who wudda thoughts? A warm winter and the Marcellus? Can you say "war on coal" and "nuclear energy plants closing":




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Making America Greater Than Ever

Another huge story today: Japan putting together a package to create 700,000 jobs in America; will use Japanese cash reserves to pay for infrastructure builds in the US. Makes one think: what's going on?

Some things to think about:
  • cheapest energy in the world, and plenty of it; much of it "green"
  • corporate tax reform on the horizon
  • repeal ObamaCare: huge corporate tax relief; huge regulatory relief 
  • end of "climate change" craziness
  • end of huge "multi-national deals that compromise toward mediocrity; America on short end; return to bilateral negotiations; friends of US at front of the line

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