Thursday, February 16, 2017

Is The Bakken A Bust? -- Oilprice.Com -- February 16, 2017

Sometime ago I posted the importance of understanding the source of a story. This story is a great example. Remember: oilprice started off as a "peak oil" proponent. This Arthur Berman story also appeared in Forbes a few days after this oilprice article.

I'm really too tired to go into this but I will post the link, and maybe later point out why the writer of this story is entirely wrong.

Some quick phrases and/or data points to  help me remember what went through my mind when reading this article for the first time:
  • unfettered, the Bakken will produce 2.2 million bopd
  • (a "peak oil" proponent) vs EIA, Harold Hamm, and many others
  • has an agenda; I don't think the EIA does
  • DAPL
  • Keystone XL
  • Enbridge's Sandpiper
  • 36 active rigs today vs 220 active rigs at the height of the Bakken boom
  • in the Bakken: 800 DUCs
  • in the Bakken: 1,500 wells shut in
  • Bakken 1.0
  • Bakken 2.0
  • "talking past each other"
  • misunderstanding "peak oil"
  • definition of "reserves"
  • the Permian: $40,000 to $60,000 per acre
  • ExxonMobil "doubles down" in the Permian
  • CNBC: US shale producers export record 1 million barrels of oil per day to world market as OPEC cuts back. Link here.  
  • OPEC admits it will have to extend production cuts longer than expected
  • last week: US crude oil build -- 14 million bbls (forecast: 2 million bbls)
  • this week: US crude oil build -- 9 million bbls (forecast: 2 million bbls)
  • record US crude oil stocks 
  • all of this at $50 oil; imagine $100 oil
  • the Bakken killed the Canadian Sands
  • oil rises, but swelling US output caps rally. Over at Reuters. probably sees this as "fake news." -- February 20, 2017 
  • the Peak Oil theorists were wrong -- Mike Filloon, February 20, 2017 
  • Phillips 66 wants to begin 10-year dredging project near its Bayway refinery, Linden, NJ; Sierra Club says the project is needed for increased Bakken oil by barge -- March 18, 2017; doesn't sound like the Bakken is dead to me
And now we get this story, the lead story over at Yahoo!Finance right now, and ironically, from did the Bakken fall too far too fast?

OPEC. Ready to cut deeper.  And the Bakken's a bust. LOL.
OPEC is finding itself backed into a corner: the group, it appears, is prepared to extend the oil production cut agreement that is set to expire at the end of June and also increase the cuts, if inventories fail to drop to a specified level, sources from the group told Reuters.
The agreement, which also involves 11 non-OPEC producers, including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and several smaller producers, envisaged taking off around 1.8 million barrels from the global daily supply. This means, according to the sources, that global stockpiles should shrink with 300 million barrels in the six-month period, to reach the five-year average. This, however, requires a compliance rate of 100 percent from all participants.

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