Thursday, November 10, 2016

How Much Effect Did Hillary's Comments To Ban Fracking Have On The National Outcome -- It Turns Out It Was Huge -- November 10, 2016

I've gone over the math on this post over and over and I think I'm correct. Please, if I'm not, let me know, so I can correct it. 

If you do nothing else tonight, look at the comment at this post:
http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/11/reply-to-reader-regarding-election.html.
I brought the comment up to the top of that post to make it easier to read and to make it "browser-searchable."

A huge thank-you to the reader on the East Coast who sent me the data. It is a real eye-opener.

After reading that note, I am absolutely convinced that Hillary's comments in Detroit about banning fracking may have been the difference in winning  / losing the election. If the Pennsylvania data holds for Ohio that amounts to 38 electoral votes (18 for OH; 20 for PA) that might have been lost due to Hillary's comments on fracking.

Right now, over at CNN:
  • Trump: 290 + Michigan (16) = 306
  • Hillary: 232
Back out those 38 electoral votes from Trump and give them to Hillary and note what happens. At the CNN link it appears that Michigan is still not being officially called by some. But give those 16 electoral votes to Trump:
  • Trump 306 - 38 = 268
  • Hillary: 232 +38 = 270
Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and electoral vote counting is not as simple as it seems with Maine and Nebraska having "unique" way of awarding electoral votes. But I've done the math several times and that's what I get. If Trump takes Michigan (and it appears he will) but lost Pennsylvania and Ohio, it looks like he would have come up two electoral votes from winning.

Please let me know if I've done the math wrong. If accurate, this is bigger than I realized.


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Note:

I am always humbled when a reader sends me such great information (see linked post above). It obviously took a fair amount of time to figure this out and there was no reason he/she had to send the data. So, I am always humbled.

More so, because I realize that a lot of what I post on the blog is off-subject, and much of my stuff is of little interest to readers who are truly serious about the oil and gas industry, and they continue to come to the site. I am often embarrassed when I get these great notes from readers, wondering what they must think of my off-subject stuff, but hopefully I identify off-subject stuff well enough that folks can ignore it if they want.

I cannot discontinue blogging off-subject stuff. For me, simply posting numbers and data and information about the Bakken would grow tedious, and so much of my "other" stuff helps put the Bakken in perspective.

But again, when I get these notes, and links from so many readers, it tends to keep me on track.

8 comments:

  1. Have been crunching the numbers myself. Glad somebody else did the dirty work. Math looks good to me.
    As far as the off topic stuff goes- Keep it coming. I am 75% Norwegian, Sarcasm is a second language and a sense of humor is mandatory in my family. I'ts always good to keep it light!
    BTW- Have a blessed Veterans Dday

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    1. Thank you for your kind words. Thank you for checking the numbers. I e-mailed the story to one of the reporters over at The Wall Street Journal who does stories on fracking. It may be a bit difficult to translate into a WSJ story but it alerts them to a possible story, another angle. This election will be studied ad nauseum.

      I told the reporter I did not expect a reply; she could do with it what she wants, so I will watch the WSJ and see if anything comes of it.

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  2. Off topic makes you human and keeps the blog interesting. I grew up on the Jersey Shore, Sarcasm is, like Mike said, a second language.

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  3. Yes and thanks for your service, Happy Veterans day

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  4. Thank you for your service on this Veteran's Day. The swing in the 12 Ohio counties with activity in the Utica play, the swing from Obama in 08 to Trump was 148,464. From an Obama Plurality of 59418 to a Trump plurality of 89,046. While less than Trumps margin, it is a larger percentage swing than in the neighboring counties in PA.

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    1. Thank you, much appreciated. Will update this later; in between family events today. I really appreciate you taking the time to do this.

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    2. I just posted the comment at the top of the post itself, as an update. It really is amazing. They will dice and slice this election for years, but the facts remain: give the 38 electoral votes from Ohio and Pennsylvania, the heart of the Utica and the Marcellus, Hillary would be the president-elect. The rest of the country pretty much voted in line with previous elections in modern history.

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