Thursday, November 10, 2016

The Trump Daily Thought -- The First 30 Days

The Trump Presidency
The Third 100 Days
The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300)
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration
The Third 10 Days
The Second 30 Days
The First 30 Days

Where President Trump Can Have Immediate Impact
Without (Much) Congressional Interference
(in draft;  not ready for prime time)

  • veto renewal of all UN peacekeeping roles; US pays upwards of $2 billion for UN peacekeeping roles around the world
Executive orders
  • appoint "tsars" but actually have them do something
  • simply change the ROE
  • promote a 350-ship US Navy; largest US Navy buildup since Reagan administration 
War on Mexico
  • via tweets, shaming US manufacturers to shift to US from Mexico 
The wall
  • the law was passed under previous administration; it simply wasn't executed by the occupants of the Oval Office; time to execute that law; reconciliation to fund it now; Mexico will pay later

December 9, 2016, T+30: one month. So much oxygen has been sucked out of the room by Jill Stein and Donald Trump, no one else on stage.

December 8, 2016, T+29: after listening to "Morning Joe" this morning it's impossible to overstate how fortunate for the average American that Trump was elected

December 7, 2016, T+28: December 6 -- the stock market hit its eleventh (11th) all-time high President Trump was elected president. Polls overnight now show favorability/approval/hopeful ratings for Trump have jumped to 50 - 51% range. If there is a shift in Trump's global warming stance in 2017, it will be a "practical shift." Trump will work on projects to protect the US coastlines against erosion and damage caused by major storms. One can be a denier and/or an agnostic and still "build" things to prevent problems along the coastlines. [Update: markets surge today; both NYSE and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs. Dow 30 up 297 points -- yes, almost 300 points.] As president-elect, Trump is doing more for the average US worker than Obama did in his entire eight years: giving them hope instead of another speech.

December 6, 2016, T+27: yesterday (December 5) the stock market hit another all-time high. It is being reported that Trump's tax plan will add $29 billion in book value to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Assuming BRK's liabilities and debt remains unchanged, Trump's tax plan will add $29 billion to Warren's top line (assets -- as in cash). This -- although not $29 billion -- will extend to all US corporations. Congress men and women will fall all over themselves to support Trump on this kind of corporate tax relief once it is obvious he has the 51% support in the House and the Senate.

December 5, 2016, T+26: President Obama's decision to kill the $3.9 billion DAPL will make the first 100 days for Trump as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. Add the DAPL to the list of 100 things Trump will do in his first 100 days.

December 4, 2016, T+26: Trump targets second plant with plans to re-locate to Mexico. Good, bad, or indifferent, at least he's keeping his word; someone in Washington who seems to care. Compare with Harry Reid's attitude:

December 3, 2016, T+25: beer summit with Harvard professor and local police officer vs taking a congratulatory telephone call from the president of Taiwan. They both generated about the same amount of media interest. Tomorrow we will move on to something else. It's gonna be a fun four years.

December 2, 2016, T+24: it is so refreshing to hear a president-elect speak his mind, not worrying about being politically correct. Most interesting: he often steals "outrageous" ideas from Hillary Clinton and her party and others. For example: the Secure Fence Act? Hillary. Flag burning? Supreme Court Justice Scalia.

December 1, 2016, T+23: Something tells me the news cycle with Trump will be 24/7. None of this "9-to-5" stuff with a news dump Friday afternoon after normal business hours, and then three days of golf where the press pool is hanging out at the burger bar, and no one sees the president for 72 hours. The tea leaves suggest this is going to be a very, very exciting, unconventional four years. Once he hits his stride, Trump will set the narrative. [From a reader: "He already has (set the narrative).]

November 30, 2016, T+22: Not even president yet -- Carrier will keep its Indiana plant open.

November 29, 2016, T+21: Not even president yet -- US consumer confidence at 9-year high. President Obama will take credit: folks with renewed confidence after he has set the stage for future president to succeed. 

November 28, 2016, T+20: We've gone from "fake news stories" to "fake newspapers." For example, The Los Angeles Times is a "fake newspaper." The Onion is a fake newspaper, but at least it's more fun to read.

November 27, 2016, T+19: Pelosi needs to be "re-elected" as the minority leader of the US House. She is the gift that keeps on giving. In the US House, the average age of the Democratic representatives is 68 years old; the average of the GOP representatives is 48 years old. In addition to everything else, generally speaking, it is not unusual for the US House to be the stepping stone to the US Senate. 

November 26, 2016, T+18: Hillary has undone all the goodwill she generated in her concession speech by participating in the recount. Even Richard Nixon did not go this far. The US House of Representatives will be watching this closely.

November 25, 2016, T+17: It was refreshing to see Trump working on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, instead of golfing. No word where Obama was but generally on holidays and weekends, he's golfing, ala Eisenhower. I'll say it again. I'm getting tired of GOP'ers publicly criticizing Trump.

November 24, 2016, T+16: very orderly transition to the surprise of mainstream media.

November 23, 2016, T+15: the end of the feminization of America.

November 22, 2016, T+14: Outgoing Senator Harry Reid triggered the "nuclear option" back in 2013. Under that "option," the Democrats do not have the votes to stop any Trump appointment. That does not mean RINOs won't scuttle that opportunity.

November 21, 2016, T+13: something tells me Camille Paglia will be impressed with Trump. Maybe even Susan Faludi. Is Trump the first president that never bought into feminization of the United States?

November 20, 2016, T+12: the president-elect met with Mitt Romney over the weekend. The facts suggest that Mitt Romney would not be a good fit for the Trump team; the tea leaves suggest they both know that.

November 19, 2016, T+11: this past week, the chairman of the Ford automobile company telephoned President-elect Trump to tell him that the Ford company had decided to keep Lincoln production in Kentucky, not move that production to Mexico. Apple also released a statement that the company might manufacture (some?) iPhones in the US, moving some of that production out of China. [By the way, I now follow Trump over at Twitter: this is the only "political" Twitter account I follow.]

November 18, 2016, T+10: Trump's "Valerie Jarrett": Jared Kushner.

November 17, 2016, T+9: conversation has really shifted on MSNBC. An incredibly well-balanced, fair first hour. 

November 16, 2016, T+8: we're only eight days past the election, and the nuts over at MSNBC are saying that Trump is moving too slowly putting his transition team and his cabinet together; and, then in the next breath, are upset with the choices he is likely to make. I'm lovin' it.

November 15, 2016, T+7: Trump on same-sex marriage on the 60 Minutes interview -- "that fight is over; we lost, they won." Refreshing. He is ending the culture wars. [Supreme Court: he will appoint pro-life judges -- one disconnect.]

November 14, 2016, T+6: the Dow hit a new all-time record high; the fourth record high in as many days. We'll see if trickle down economics has any merit. One wonders if Pocahontas is upset?

November 13, 2016, T+5: just how bad was it? It must have been fairly "bad" under the Obama administration -- again, another story not reported. Here it is: China said it is ready to improve relations with the US now that President Obama is leaving office.

November 12, 2016, T+4: That "frustration energy" driving protests? It could be worse. We could have "gloating energy" driving the news cycle 24/7.

November 11, 2016, T+3: the Obama legacy may be erased by the end of next week, based on the action of the US stock market. 

November 10, 2016, T+2: An Obama do-over: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill in first 100 days. It will be interesting to see who supports the "do-over."

November 9, 2016, T+1: the telephone call came in at 3:00 a.m. this morning. I can't make this stuff up.

What A Trump Presidency Might Mean

Overall Leadership
  • pragmatism over ideology 
  • collegial, not confrontational or purposely divisive
  • public, not personal
  • pay day for US military active duty
US Economy
  • trade wars are not good for anyone, but level playing fields are
  • federal government will focus on infrastructure
  • Silicon Valley technology, stronger than ever, but won't need Trump support, cronyism
  • law of the land
  • sanctuary cities: the rhetoric will last until mayors start losing federal monies (think the 55-mph speed limit during OPEC embargo; states could voluntarily support, but would lose highway transportation funding if 55-mph not enforced)
  • capitalize on America's abundant resources
  • wind and solar energy will fall by the wayside
  • nuclear energy: rise or fall will depend on economics
  • science-backed decisions
  • weigh economic impact of EPA rules and regulations
Marijuana legalization
  • no idea; states are at odds with federal govt; no idea how this will play out 
California, the state
  • another big question; does Trump take an interest in California?
  • does Trump let California handle its own immigration problem? let that state build its own wall? as the problem moves from Texas to California; the wall will go up first in Texas;
  • budget: this state may have the most to lose; all media reports suggest that CA is doubling down on "ObamaCare"; comes at a time when immigration challenges from Mexico will probably swing from Texas to California
  • control: Trump will control media events, not the media
  • might establish own television network through Brietbart -- Breitbart News Network
    • Breitbart News
    • Breitbart Business
    • Breitbart Sports
  • regardless of her viewership, Rachel Maddow becomes less relevant
  • late-night talk shows: most political jokes will fall flat 
  • until he's president, he will "own" his own press pool, photographer 
"Things" Taken Off The Table With A President Trump

A lot of silly talk is now off the table:
  • that silly talk of banning fracking
  • that silly talk of settling social problems over a glass of beer; if anything, bottled water (I understand Mr Trump is a teetotaler)
  • that silly talk about global warming
  • that silly talk of sending $100 billion in unmarked $100-bills to the Maldives to help them combat rising water; GDP of the Maldives ($6,666 per capita in 2013). In 1990, the GPD of the Maldives was less than $1,000 per capita; obviously global warming has not hurt the Maldivians yet. Their growth has been surging compared to that of the US; maybe they need to send the US some money.
  • that silly talk about how much Americans love EVs
Several "fake" issues off the table
  • federal credits for solar and wind energy
  • risk fracking poses to ground water

A bio.

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