Friday, October 28, 2016

Is The Shale Honeymoon Over For PADD 1 (East Coast) Refineries? -- RBN Energy; Global Offshore Production -- As Percent Overall, Lowest On Record; PEMEX Posts Loss Of $6 Billion In 3Q16 -- October 29, 2016

GDP: despite some concern about the "validity" of the number --
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2016, the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2014
President Obama is the first president in modern history to never have one full year in which GDP growth reached 35. Won't happen this year either.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3469191180186

RBN Energy: is the shale honeymoon over for PADD1 (East Coast) refineries?

Global offshore oil production: the share of offshore production from shallow water in 2015 was 64%, the lowest on record.
Global offshore oil production (including lease condensate and hydrocarbon gas liquids) from deepwater projects reached 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015.
Deepwater production, or production in water of depths greater than 125 meters, has increased 25% from nearly 7 million b/d a decade ago.
Shallow water has been relatively less expensive and less technically challenging for operators to explore and drill, but changing economics and the exhaustion of some shallow offshore resources has helped to push producers to deepwater or, in some areas, ultra deepwater (at depths of 1,500 meters or more) resources.
The share of offshore production from shallow water in 2015 was 64%, the lowest on record. --- EIA
Suicide: US Army rules that the July 31, 2016, death of a 2-star general at Alabama military base was a suicide.

Russian Northern Fleet continues eastward towards Syria; almost due north of the eastern Moroccan border.

Those cash payments from the US to Iran to get US hostages back (a ransom payment by any other name)? US Attorney General has "plead the Fifth" on testifying to Congress. And that will be the end of that; Congress will move on.

The Market

COP reported a $1 billion loss 3Q16. That's chickenfeed. Mexican state-run oil company Pemex posted a loss of over $6 billion in 3Q16. 

GE - BHI: early, early discussions; talking about partnering; perhaps a spin-off from parts of each.

Mid-afternoon trading: Dow 30 down 45 points; WTI around $49. NYSE:
  • new highs -- 45: BHI (a big whoop -- but it won't last); MDU (wow);
  • new lows -- 58; not a good sign when the number of issues hitting new lows exceed those hitting new highs
Open: up 35 points: WTI trading below $50;


Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution
Nathaniel Philbrick
c. 2016
DDS: 973.4 PHI
A Nation of Traitors

Philadelphia -- Arnold's betrayal was a personal affront.

As a warrior at Valcour Island and Saratoga, Benedict Arnold had been an inspiration.

But it was as a traitor that he succeeded in galvanizing a nation. His treason awakened them to the realization that the War of Independence was theirs to lose. 

Irony: the thirteen colonies were a nation of traitors.

Americans now realized it was not King George III that was their worst enemy, but rather some of their own among them.

Peggy was exiled from Philadelphia to NYC.

Benedict Arnold himself was now in the British Army; in a bloodbath comparable to the massacres at Paoli and Old Tappen, Arnold would -- it might be said -- avenge the death of Major Andre.
Geo Washington devised a plan to kidnap/capture Arnold, but the plan fell through when coincidentally Arnold's group was mobilized for an operation in Virginia. Arnold, not knowing he was almost kidnapped, was on his way south toward what had become the major theater of the war. 

Geo Washington nominated General Nathanael Greene to be in command. Green's career had almost been over when he lost Fort Washington four years earlier. A year later, he saved his army with a brilliant retreat at Brandywine, preventing the botched battle from becoming the catastrophe it might otherwise have been.  At Valley Forge, he agreed to the thankless job of quartermaster. He felt unappreciated; ready to resign. Washington never liked him as he like Lafayette. Now Greene had the opportunity of a lifetime.

After Charleston and Cameden, the colonists were just one defeat away from disaster. 

The book ends: Greene had overseen the trail of John Andre and was then serving as Arnold's replacement as commander at West Point. On the morning of October 21, 1780, after writing a letter of farewell to Caty, Nathanael Greene began the long journey south.

From US History, the timeline of the following year, 1781:
  • Jan. 1: Mutiny of unpaid Pennsylvania soldiers 
  • Jan. 17: Patriot Morgan overwhelmingly defeats British Col. Tarleton at Cowpens, SC 
  • Feb. 1: The Battle of Cowan's Ford, Huntersville, NC 
  • March 2: Articles of Confederation adopted 
  • March 15: British win costly victory at Guilford Courthouse, NC 
  • April 25: Greene defeated at Hobkirk's Hill, SC 
  • May 15: British Major Andrew Maxwell cedes Fort Granby, SC to patriot Lieutenant Colonel Henry Lee 
  • June 6: Americans recapture Augusta, GA June 18: British hold off Americans at Ninety Six, SC 
  • July 6: "Mad" Anthony Wayne repulsed at Green Springs Farm, VA 
  • Sept. 8: Greene defeated at Eutaw Springs, SC 
  • Sept. 15: French fleet drives British naval force from Chesapeake Bay Oct. 19: Cornwallis surrounded on land and sea by Americans and French and surrenders at Yorktown, VA
But it was still a full year before the British were finally driven out of the south. December 14, 1782 -- the British leave Charleson, SC.

And it was still another nine months before the Treaty of Paris was signed, September 3, 1873.

It was another four years, almost to the day, September 17, 1787, when the US Constitution was finally signed. It was adopted the next year, June 21, 1788, when New Hampshire ratified it.

It was back on April 19, 1775, thirteen years ealier, that the colonists had fired the shot heard 'round the world, and much had led up to that, years before that date.

Takeaways for me:
  • for the first time I really "know" Benedict Arnold's story 
  • for the first I have a really good feel for how the American Revolution played out
  • I have a much better understanding of the geography around NYC and West Point
  • I understand why "a Nathaniel Philbrick" would be interested in writing this story
  • I understand, for the first time, how important the French were to the American cause
  • I have a much better feeling about Geo Washington's personality
  • I understand why Benedict Arnold as a traitor was incredibly important to the outcome
  • Arianna (our oldest granddaughter who loves history, and knows the Alexander Hamilton play practically by heart) and I now have lots to talk about

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