Rebuttal To "Bakken Well Efficiency Has Topped Out"

[Another related link: the EIA tracks this metric also: new-well oil / gas production per rig, by region. At the time of this posting (July 6, 2014), the Bakken led all regions for oil, even beating out the Eagle Ford, although just barely (if I am not misreading the graphs).  [Again, another "thank you" to Don for finding this link; it's something I never would have thought of looking up. It appears the EIA has only been tracking this metric since October, 2013, which also speaks volumes about how things are changing in the US oil patch.]

Readers couldn't help but notice that headline yesterday, "Bakken well efficiency has topped out."

I either laughed out loud or did a double-take, as they say, when I saw that headline. I don't remember what my reaction was. Most likely, it was simply a look of disbelief. Everything I've read suggests Bakken wells are getting better. I suppose the time frame is important. Perhaps the writer who suggests that Bakken well efficiency has topped out is comparing last week's wells with wells from two weeks ago.

A huge "thank you" to a reader who caught my sarcasm when I agreed to agree that petroleum engineers and drillers, in just four or five years, had learned all the secrets to drilling out the Bakken. Coffeeguyzz provided a nice rebuttal in a comment but I brought it up here where it is easier to access and google:

As regards "well efficiency topping out" in the Bakken" ... the phrase alone should demonstrate the most profound ignorance of the writer. Along with your blog (and daily reads of Zero Hedge), I have become a keenly interested observer of the shale revolution on a world-wide, daily basis, and I can most emphatically state that the technological breakthroughs have barely begun. 

Remember that 60-stage frac that Whiting disclosed a few weeks ago? The company that makes the BHA tool - NCS Energy Services - just announced a few days back that they did a 92-stage frac in the Eagle Ford. Both their website and Baker Hughes Optiport BHA videos show clearly and concisely how revolutionary this technique/hardware may prove to be ... especially in the multiple, economical re-fracs that this process will enable operators to perform in years to come.

The precision of the latest generation RSS hardware and software is allowing 4-mile total depth wells to be drilled with one-foot deviation in both vertical and horizontal planes. 

The early research on EOR - particularly in regards to CO2 usage - shows potential recovery rates that are absolutely mind-blowing.

With regard to "one-foot deviation in both vertical and horizontal planes," I have seen the same thing in the geologist's reports and the driller's report: they are drilling some great wells in some very, very narrow seams, some as thin as four-feet vertically.

This is just the Bakken. My understanding is that "they" have yet to reach the same "efficiency" in such large basins as the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. That, too, will happen. And, of course, the Permian, once thought to be on its last legs, may end up being the biggest oil producer in the country due to Bakken technology.

One of the problems with arm-chair analysis of well efficiency in the Bakken based on production is the fact that none of us outside the industry know to what extent wells are being choked back. Some wells are being choked back, I assume, due to market conditions (supply and demand), and it's possible that some wells are being choked back due to lack of adequate infrastructure.

Anyway, be that as it may, I strongly doubt that Bakken well efficiency has topped out.

By the way, Coffeeguyzz said that he, too, was watching the global shale revolution on a daily basis. I've said that before: by blogging day-in / day-out, I've gotten a feel for the Bakken. I have not kept up with the technology and I don't understand it all, but I think I have a pretty good feel for what is going on. As Coffeeguyzz has implied, checking in on the oil industry every few months just doesn't provide adequate insight to really understand the shale revolution. I watch it daily and I still can't keep up.

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EIA Tracks Oil Production Per Rig, By Region

By the way, the EIA tracks this metric also: new-well oil / gas production per rig, by region. At the time of this posting (July 6, 2014), the Bakken led all regions for oil.

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From St Elsewhere

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Snow In Maine, July 5, 2014

2014 C.E.

22 A.G. 

For those who missed it, there is report of snow in Maine at the lower-upper elevations in the 22nd year of Algore.