For Investors Only

The most noteworthy data point this morning: the price of oil continues to melt up without a good explanation. I posted this two days ago, and the sentiment remains:

The major factors affecting the price of oil:

• Mideast politics and hostilities (Syria, Iran, Israel); sabre-rattling
• strength of the dollar
• US economy six months out
• Chinese manufacturing index
• global economy six months out

Of the five, I think the US economy six months out as telegraphed by the Fed's actions is the most important. On a day-to-day basis, all things being equal (e.g., no report of a war breaking out in the Mideast, it is the strength of the dollar).

Some additional thoughts: this is still the middle of winter and the number of active rigs in North Dakota continues to increase. BNSF is putting "throttle to the metal" based on CAPEX for 2014. Something is simmering; I can't put my finger on it. But something is simmering. It's an election year.

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CVS sees "atypical" jump in fourth-quarter profit. That's the headline. Doesn't surprise me. CVX has been doing all the right things, at some based on what I've seen.

Reynolds American 4Q13 profit more than doubles. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

All that hand-wringing over McDonald's sales yesterday? Sales actually rose 1.2%, though guidance is flat. Considering the December weather, not a bad report.

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From Yahoo!In-Play (compare this with comments on UNP, BNSF yesterday):

Genesee & Wyoming misses by $0.09, misses on revs: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.07 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.16; revenues rose 72.3% year/year to $391.7 mln vs the $398.33 mln consensus.

• "We expect our positive momentum to continue in 2014, although the year is starting slowly due to extreme winter weather in North America. Our Australian business continues to perform well, we have completed necessary management changes following the RailAmerica acquisition and we have enhanced our North American commercial capabilities. With the expiration of the short line tax credit on December 31, 2013, the easiest way to visualize our business outlook for 2014 is growth in pre-tax income of approximately 20%, compared with our 2013 adjusted pre-tax income."

Genesee & Wyoming reports traffic in Jan 2014 was 156,584 carloads, an increase of 557 carloads, or 0.4%, compared with Jan 2013.