Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Possible Oil Glut in 2014 -- Raymond James


Later, 7:35 pm:  I received a note from a reader suggesting that Saudi fields may be depleting, citing an analyst's newsletter. In that analysis it was noted that Saudi produces 89% of their oil from five (5) fields which are now 56 years old, and are starting to show signs of depletion.

It's hard for me to believe that fields that are 56 years old aren't show their age (no pun intended). I am in the camp that believes that Saudi cannot ramp up as fast as they say they can. I talked about that many, many times early in the blog, but haven't talked about it in a long time. This was a very interesting post about this subject.

Original Post
For the archives. From SeekingAlpha.
Stepping away from the pack, Andrew Coleman of Raymond James Equity Research is making a contrarian forecast for an oil glut in 2014. Shale oil production is on the ascent, with the United States joining Saudi Arabia on the supply side, while China's hunger for oil may be sliding and demand in developed countries remains in decline. In this interview with The Energy Report, Coleman explains his thinking and names the producers best positioned to capitalize on the turbulence ahead.
The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?
Andrew Coleman: Because of the evolution of North American shale oil plays, we are on track to add about 3 million barrels [3 MMbbl] of new supply over the next five years. Yet we know oil demand has been falling across the developed nations and is still weak coming out of the global financial crisis. Those developments point toward a glut.
This linked article is directed toward investors.

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