ARM Update -- Daily Activity Report From The Bakken -- September 14, 2023

Locator: 45655TECH.
Locator: 45655B.

 ARM, link here:

• IPO priced at $51
• closed at $63.59; a 25% gain from the priced IPO
• market valuation: $60 billion, at close
  
• (this is a bubble)
• ARM's p/e >110
• comparable to Nvidia's valuation which trades at 108 x earnings
• but Nvidia has a 170% growth forecast for the current quarter
• Arm
• focused on royalty growth
• providing products to its customer that cost and do more (vaporware?)
• to best of my knowledge, manufactures no hardware
• designs chips? Yes, focused on CPUs, inferior to GPUs in most respects, in current generative AI environment
• "Pros": not buying -- CNBC
• Arm is not AI
• AI runs on Arm, but to repeat, Arm is not AI
  
• Arm has been around forever -- the foundation of much of the current global computing
• pros don't see growth
• many questioned why Arm even went public; public explanation by CEO was not credible
• CEO's answer was "not credible"
• one analyst did suggest ARM need to be part of any "tech" portfolio
• Jim Cramer
• company designs chips
• great company, but:
  
• China: a complication
• SoftBank still owns 90% of the company -- how much more might it sell?
• difficult to justify the opening IPO price
• valued at 110 x earnings
• probable "real" valuation? $40 - $60 billion
• would have accepted mid-$50 price
• not much upside left
• then, Cramer says: buy a small position -- how did he come up with that? Typical Cramer. 
• largest IPO since Rivian (a disaster) for those who bought in the beginning.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

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Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut: released today.

Active rigs: 32.

WTI: $90.58. Market reaction: lukewarm at best. Market reaction suggests:

• investors have all the energy they want; treating "oil and natural gas" as utilities; taking a "watch and see" approach;
• traders: not convinced WTI has much more room to run; Europe's natural gas storage is full.

Two new permits, #440203 - #40204, inclusive:

• Operators: Petro-Hunt, Hess
• Fields: Little Knife (Billings); Robinson Lake (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has a permit for a EN-Weyrauch well, SESW 8-154-93; 
•  to be sited 339 FSL and 2030 FWL;
• Petro-Hunt has a permit for another Zabolotny well, SESW 9-144-98, 
• to be sited 410 FSL and 1945 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• XTO: four GBU Wayne permits, Williams County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 29284, 1,899, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,
• 38619, 3,432, MRO, Wilma 41-16TFH,
• 38620, 2,821, MRO, Greenshields 11-15HH,
• 38974, no ip, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, North Fork, see below
  
• 39193, 1,400, CLR, Allen 6-17H,
• 39194, 1,465, CLR, Allen 7-17H,

Revised:

• 38974, no ip, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9MBH-R, North Fork,
• March 15, 2019:
• original: 230 FSL and 967 FEL
• May 24, 2022
• "the "R" added in a new application
• new: 230 FSL and 1147 FEL
• 2560-acre spacing: 4/9/16/21-149-96

Wells of interest near #38619 and #38620 (run south, I believe);

• 18253, 344, MRO, State Ralph 31-16H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 519K 7/23; huge halo effect;
• 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 569K 7/23; no huge halo effect;