Not Laying Down Rigs In The Bakken; Holding Steady; Up One Today -- December 2, 2019

Active rigs:

	12/2/2019	12/02/2018	12/02/2017	12/02/2016	12/02/2015
Active Rigs	58	66	53	39	64

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, last week -- it appears that the NDIC is no longer posting results until several days after wells come off the confidential list. Last Thursday's wells have still not been posted.

Monday, December 2, 2019: 115 for the month; 216 for the quarter:

• 36095, SI/NC, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HUL, Mandaree, no production data,
• 33448, drl, EOG, Clearwater 30-3103H, Ross,
• 31655, 775, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 11-19 4B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; cum 92K 10/19;

Sunday, December 1, 2019: 112 for the month; 213 for the quarter:

• 36417, dry, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltmans Panther 1-16, wildcat, Lodgepole target; not a surprise; previously posted;
• 36318, SI/NC, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, Croff, small bit of production;
• 36317, SI/NC, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH, Croff, small bit of production;
• 35635, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HZ, Mandaree, no production data,
• 35634, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HA, Mandaree, no production data,
• 35331, 6,028, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 114K 58 days;
• 35330, 4,401, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 61K 41 days;
• 33183, SI/NC, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH, Little Knife, no production data,

Saturday, November 30, 2019: 104 for the month; 205 for the quarter:36317

• 35636, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HB, Mandaree, no production data,
• 33184, SI/NC, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH-2NH, Little Knife, no production data,

Friday, November 29, 2019: 102 for the month; 203 for the quarter:

• 36316, SI/NC, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff, some production;
• 36135, SI/NC, XTO, Sorkness state Federal 34X-36G, Sorkness, no production data,
• 35637, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HY, Mandaree, no production data,
• 35332, 5,530, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 94K 58 days;
• 30108, 820, Oasis, Jensen 5501 43-7 6B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; cum 95K 10/19;

Thursday, November 28, 2019: 97 for the month; 198 for the quarter:

• 36136, SI/NC, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, Sorkness, no production data
• 35638, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HC, Mandaree, no production data,
• 35587, 1,688, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, 33-025-03596; Cedar Coulee, t7/19; cum 143K 10/19;
• 35333, 1,414, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 31K 10/19;

RBN Energy: late crops and delivery snags send PADD 2 propane prices soaring.

Cold weather and spiking demand from Midwest and Great Plains farmers trying to dry their late-maturing, soggy crops have sent the PADD 2 propane market into a tizzy. Supply is not a major issue — propane inventory levels in the region are only a little below average, and stocks are plentiful along the Gulf Coast in PADD 3 — but distributing propane by rail and truck for crop-drying use has been a bigger-than-normal problem. As a result, farmers are scrambling to get more of the fuel, and propane prices in the U.S. heartland have been skyrocketing. Worse yet, Canada may not be able to come to the rescue as it has in the past, because its propane exports to Asia are up and its inventories are down. Today, we review recent developments on the fuel front in the nation’s breadbasket.

As anyone who traveled across the Midwest or Great Plains this past holiday weekend knows all too well, winter has arrived, spurring demand for propane from the many residential and commercial customers in PADD 2 — the big triangle of states between Ohio, Oklahoma and North Dakota — who depend on the fuel for space heating, not to mention for cooking Thanksgiving dinners and heating up leftovers.

The other big demand center for propane in the Midwest and Great Plains is drying harvested corn and other crops before they are stored or shipped. Propane demand for crop drying varies from year to year, depending on, among other things, the size of the crop, the crop-maturation rate (is it an early, late or normal harvest), and the weather during the harvest. 2019 has been a pretty good year from a crop production standpoint, but a wet spring delayed planting, crop maturation was slower than normal, and farmers are still in the midst of an unusually late harvest (see navy blue lines for 2019 in Figure 1). That complicates things because it means crop-drying demand for propane has been spiking just as heating demand is ramping up.