Sources
Updates
Investors:
- how to calculate volatility with spot and strip prices, Motley Fool, May 10, 2017.
- how to calculate annualized volatility, Motley Fool, October 20, 2016.
- roll yield defined, Investopedia, July 9, 2021 (note how recent this article was posted).
October 5, 2019: brand new; very new; jargon for the shale revolution; Bakken 2.5.
Later, 1:28 p.m. CT: patting myself on the back (sorry). But this is what makes blogging so rewarding. A reader wrote, and a big "thank you" to him:
Very likely that you are the "halo" word man. I've heard it here and little elsewhere.
Really not proven yet statistically and for the longest time would irk me when you would cite an individual well versus doing a statistical review. But you definitely described the IDEA well. And the funny thing is lately there are some little inklings of support for your concept (WLL conference call). Still have my doubts, but have to be fair and not that in your favor.Thank you so much. As mentioned before, I don't have the money, time, resources, intelligence to do a statistical study of the "halo" effect.
I've heard Red Queen from the peak oilers the most. I suspect it has been around the oil patch for a long time even before that. But I first heard it used in context of shale by Rune L. of The Oil Drum: http://theoildrum.com/node/9506
[Note that the Bakken has more than doubled the Rune Red Queen prediction. And this was their tour de force, republished, pushed, super science-y...and butt-wrong.]
Original Post
From North American Shale, May 6, 2019. More specifically, from the magazine's "2019 Bakken Report."
I do believe the MDW was the first blog to have used many of these words and phrases: in almost all cases, the jargon came from other sources, but I know that I have used a few words, phrases, acronyms before I saw them in the wild. One acronym I definitely used before I saw it in the wild: crude-by-rail (CBR). Possibly, long-reach laterals. One that I use that I have not seen used by others, referring to laterals longer than two miles: extended reach, or super-long-reach laterals. Another phrase I often use: Red Queen. I do not recall where I first that phrase.
A huge phenomenon first mentioned at the blog: "the halo effect." The industry now refers to it as the "parent-well-uplift" phenomenon. This phenomenon was not mentioned by North American Shale. Whether this phenomenon will "move the needle" for shale operators is still to be determined, but for individual small "mom-and-pop" mineral owners the phenomenon is not trivial.
This article is archived.
It was interesting to note that North American Shale did not refer to the "Bakken revolution" as a "retirement party." By the way, if it is a retirement party:
- it's a helluva party; and,
- it sure is lasting a long, long time
Later, after posting the above, a reader sent me this link (see first comment). If you have two hours (or put it on background, which I did), the short-term outlook for US shale, streamed live on February 27, 2018:
Very likely that you are the halo word man. I've heard it here and little elsewhere. Really not proven yet statistically and for the longest time would irk me when you would cite an individual well versus doing a statistical review. But you definitely described the IDEA well. And the funny thing is lately there are some little inklings of support for your concept (WLL conference call). Still have my doubts, but have to be fair and not that in your favor.
ReplyDeleteI've heard Red Queen from the peak oilers the most. I suspect it has been around the oil patch for a long time even before that. But I first heard it used in context of shale by Rune L. of The Oil Drum: http://theoildrum.com/node/9506
[Note that the Bakken has more than doubled the Rune Red Queen prediction. And this was their tour de force, republished, pushed, super science-y...and butt-wrong.]
Thank you, great note, much appreciated. Regardless of the origin of the jargon, I find it incredibly fascinating.
DeleteThe next step will be a similar analysis of the change in metrics that are needed to evaluate unconventional/tight/shale oil from conventional oil. It seems to me financial analysts continue to emphasize "old" metrics, such as rig counts.