Updates
Later, 9:25 p.m. CT: look at the note below -- that is accurate -- total gasoline imports last week rose to 1,350,000 bbls/day -- that's an increase of almost 600,000 bbls/day and an eight-year high. Gasoline demand is down (year-over-year). Last week, for example, gasoline imports were only 752,000 bbls/day-- significantly less than the 1.3 million bbls/day this past week. One has to ask the question: what's driving the increase in gasoline imports? I really don't know. My hunch: is has to do with the West Coast. Let's check. From Reuters, last month, record amounts of gasoline were imported from Europe into the west coast.
Later, 5:56 p.m. CT: regarding today's EIA weekly petroleum report, a reader noted --
Noteworthy: 2nd gasoline storage build in 14 weeks despite a 281,000 bpd increase in product supplied because our imports of gasoline rose by 598,000 barrels per day to an eight-year high of 1,350,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 416,000 barrels per day.Later, 12:50 p.m. CT: WTI off over 3%; down almost $2.00; now trading at $61.16. The best model to explain all this at this post. On top of the huge build that was announced yesterday, we now have forecasts that US shale oil production is set to grow by 16% in this calendar year (2019); and, finally, unless something significant happens, it looks like the Mideast risk premium has been taken out of current pricing.
Original Post
- API data posted yesterday: a "surprise build."
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory data: link here.
- crude: +8.2 million bbls
- Cushing: +1.2 million bbls
- distillate: +1.0 million bbls
- gasoline: +2.3 million bbls
- US crude oil inventory: increased by 4.7 million bbls
- US crude oil inventory: stands at 476.8 million bbls, about 4% above the 5-year average (last week, total inventories were said to be about 2% above the 5-year average)
- refinery operating capacity: operating at 89.9% -- very low -- and it's down slightly from last week
- both gasoline and distillate fuel production decreased last week
- US crude oil imports have dropped considerably, now down close to 10% compared to same four-year period last year
- gasoline imports average 1.4 million bpd; it would be interesting to see how much of this was "California"
- gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million bbls (significantly exceeded forecast; see above)
- distillate fuel inventories increased by about 1 million bbls (in line)
- but look at this: propane/propylene inventories are about 22% above the 5-year average; increased by 3 million bbls last week
- jet fuel supplied was up again; up 2.5% compared to same four-week period last year
From twitter: pay attention to Brazil and Mexico (actually, in the graphic below, note all of South America vs rest of world). Also, note Iraq -- where XOM, others pulled out their personnel due to mideast tensions; from zero back to some imports from Venezuela:
Re-balancing:
Week
|
Week Ending
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 6
|
January 4, 2019
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 7
|
January 9, 2019
|
-1.7
|
439.7
|
Week 8
|
January 16, 2019
|
-2.7
|
437.1
|
Week 9
|
January 24, 2019
|
8.0
|
445.0
|
Week 10
|
January 31, 2019
|
0.9
|
445.9
|
Week 11
|
February 6, 2019
|
1.3
|
447.2
|
Week 12
|
February 13, 2019
|
3.6
|
450.8
|
Week 13
|
February 21, 2019
|
3.7
|
454.5
|
Week 14
|
February 27, 2019
|
-8.6
|
445.9
|
Week 15
|
March 6, 2019
|
7.1
|
452.9
|
Week 16
|
March 13, 2019
|
-3.9
|
449.1
|
Week 17
|
March 20, 2019
|
-9.6
|
439.5
|
Week 18
|
March 27, 2019
|
2.8
|
442.3
|
Week 19
|
April 3, 2019
|
7.2
|
449.5
|
Week 20
|
April 10, 2019
|
7.0
|
456.5
|
Week 21
|
April 17, 2019
|
-1.4
|
455.2
|
Week 22
|
April 24, 2019
|
5.5
|
460.1
|
Week 23
|
May 1, 2019
|
9.9
|
470.6
|
Week 24
|
May 8, 2019
|
-4.0
|
466.6
|
Week 25
|
May 15, 2019
|
5.4
|
472.0
|
Week 26
|
May 22, 2019
|
4.7
|
476.8
|
noteworthy: 2nd gasoline storage build in 14 weeks despite a 281,000 bpd increase in product supplied because our imports of gasoline rose by 598,000 barrels per day to an eight year high of 1350,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 369,000 barrels per day to 416,000 barrels per day...
ReplyDeleteThank you. I'll come back to this later when I get caught up.
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