Minnesotans Concerned About The Bakken -- October 16, 2015; Part III

Being reported by CBSMinnesota:

Many grassland birds are losing habitat to drilling activity in western North Dakota’s oil patch and more needs to be done to prevent further displacement, a new federal study says.

“Lot of things go away when birds go away — the whole ecosystem gets topsy-turvy,” said Douglas Johnson, one of four federal scientists who authored the study by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Fish and Wildlife Service.

The three-year study completed in 2014 and released this week looked at 69 oil well sites and nearby gravel roads in seven of the state’s oil-producing counties.

Most oil well sites in the study had “numerous tall structures, were surrounded by barbed wire fencing, had brightly burning natural gas flares, generated relatively minor chronic noise, and were visited frequently by large trucks,” the study said.

The article fails to mention:

• blanket immunity for wind farms slicing and dicing migratory birds
• the incredibly small footprint the Bakken actually takes up
• the incredible amount of birdland taken away by ethanol (corn) farms
• the tall structures (rigs) go away in a few weeks
• in fact, the tall structures (rigs) decreased from 200 to 60 since the study began 
• once the pipelines are in, there won't even be any storage tanks
• wind turbines - also tall structures -- "never" go away
• solar farms -- completely destroys the habitat (for birds and everything else)
• flaring goes away
• hunting will be off-limits in the oil field and birds will love it (we saw the same wildlife sotry in Alaska along the above-ground pipeline -- wildlife love the warmth

This is a non-story.

It would be interesting to measure the amount of "urban oil" from highways and parking lots that end up back in the land of 10,000 lakes and streams (now "owned" by the EPA, I might add). (Pointed out by a reader.)

I wonder about the bird density in all the neighborhoods in all the new housing developments in Minneapolis/St Paul/Rochester. (Pointed out by a reader.)

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Staggering

Pipeline takeaway capacity in the Marcellus has doubled this past year, and, still, it cannot keep up with capacity. Staggering. Incredible. Which brings us to another observation -- but I will hold that thought for now.

For the first time since America’s shale boom began, the flow of natural gas from the nation’s biggest reservoir is close to dropping below year-ago levels.

Output from the Marcellus basin in Pennsylvania and West Virginia is faltering as pipeline capacity fails to keep up with the surge in production.

While space on Appalachian pipelines has more than doubled this year, it hasn’t been enough to keep the flow moving freely.

That has some producers “choking back” the output from wells in the play.

“They’re saying it’s not even worth it day to day to keep my wells online because I’m losing money on every molecule that I sell.”

Marcellus production has surged more than 14-fold in the past eight years. Now drillers are waiting on seven new Appalachian pipeline projects scheduled to enter service this quarter, with eight more scheduled for 2016.

Gas prices have tumbled 15 percent this year as mild weather limits demand and stockpiles approach a record. Without declining production and rising consumption by power plants, the price slump might have been even more pronounced. Marcellus gas production may slip 1.3 percent in November to 15.892 billion cubic feet a day from October, compared with 15.699 billion a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly Drilling Productivity Report. Output is poised to drop for four straight months.

Petrochemical companies should do quite well, one would think. Wind/solar? Dead.

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GS: $20-Oil? Never Mind

I don't know how many times we've read that Goldman Sachs has warned of $20-oil. Now this from Reuters:

Goldman Sachs head of commodities research and commodities bear Jeff Currie said on Thursday that he does not see the price of oil breaking above $50 a barrel in the next year, but the chances of it dropping to $20 are below 50 percent.

Persistent oversupply, along with slowing demand from China and other emerging-markets as well as a stronger dollar, will create enough of a headwind to keep the price of oil below $50 a barrel through the coming 12 months.

Goldman is forecasting growth in oil demand of 1.62 million barrels a day this year and 1.28 million bpd next year, creating a surplus of some 400,000 bpd that will have to clear before the price can recover much beyond current levels.

I guess GS was starting to lose its credibility. 400,000 bopd? Trivial. Especially with the shooting war in Syria and where that could lead.