Tuesday, July 8, 2014 -- Longer-Dated Oil Futures (2015 - 2017) Have Moved Higher This Year -- Because Of Iraq

Active rigs:

	7/8/2014	07/08/2013	07/08/2012	07/08/2011	07/08/2010
Active Rigs	189	186	213	170	131

RBN Energy: continuation of series on fractionation -- will the Mont Belvieu expansions be adequate? Answer: most likely. The expansions will be adequate for the west and southwest; for the Marcellus and Utica, fractionation will be done closer to home.

The Wall Street Journal

Months after the sign-up deadline (which was extended, and extended, and extended), thousands of enrollees still don't have coverage due to technical problems or backlogs in the enrollment systems.


Wal-Mart shrink the big box. The retail giant will try to embrace new business models as its superstores fall out of favor.

This caught me by surprise: the driver shortage in long-distance trucking, where the driver shortage is getting worse, just as business is heating up.

Scientists identify largest flying bird -- a glider with a wingspan of 21 feet or more that likely soared above ancient seas 25 million years ago. Either that or an NSA drone.

Israel to significantly escalate retaliation in the Gaza strip.

Tim Cook's vision for "his" Apple emerges. AAPL, by the way, hit a new 52-week high yesterday. In a down market.

Behind the Bakken's unstable shale oil. This could be serious.

Delta Air Lines will cut 85% of its flights to Venezuela starting next month over a currency dispute.

United will outsource jobs at 12 US airports, including Buffalo, Charlotte, and Detroit, starting October 1, 2014, citing costs. United declined to comment on the expected savings. The airline pays such workers from $12 to $24 an hour, while some vendors start workers at $9 an hour—$1.75 more than the federal minimum wage—and don't offer health coverage or travel benefits. [That's what I thought: ObamaCare.] [A reader noted that The Chicago Tribune cleverly omitted the part about the cost of health care. The WSJ, as quoted above, said that some vendors, starting workers at less than what United would pay, do not offer health coverage or travel benefits. My hunch is that the delta is "health coverage." A huge "thank you" to the reader for pointing that out. The delta between United pay, taking the lowest wage ($12) and the vendor's pay ($9) = $3/hour. I assume "travel benefits" were inconsequential, meaning that ObamaCare was costing United about $3/hour; not trivial, but the first time we are getting an idea of what ObamaCare is costing corporations. $3/$12 = 25% of wages; $3 x 40 hours/week x 50 weeks = $6,000 / year -- in the ballpark of what other pundits suggest. And, of course, neither source discusses the union delta which might be as high as $15/hour ($24 - $9). Baggage handlers at $24/hour vs $9/hour? This is getting to be a lot longer than intended, but this short article points out the many nuances. It is interesting that either the source of the quote or the reporter pointed out two reasons for the difference in pay: health coverage and travel benefits. It is very possible that travel benefits were the driver for the delta ($24 vs $9). My hunch is that both the source for the quote (a United spokesperson/press release) and the reporter had reasons for including "travel benefits" along with "health coverage." Yes, the nuances are quite fascinating.]

Large investors are snapping up stocks that provide steady income, an endorsement of companies' health but also a sign of apprehension over the US market's five-year bull run. [Personally, I don't see the "apprehension" at all. With CD's / money market rates where they are, what's a large investor to do?]

Heard on the street:

And we're back. Brent crude oil, at $110 and change a barrel, is where it started the year. Or is it?

The near-month futures price for Brent—typically quoted as the oil price—has indeed made a round trip up and down over the past six months or so.

That is despite twin geopolitical shocks in the form of Ukraine's crisis and renewed insurgency in Iraq. In both cases initial worries, with Iraq's situation of particular concern, have given way to a sense that oil supplies aren't directly in the line of fire.

Focusing on the headline oil price misses the real story, though.

Longer-dated oil futures have moved higher this year. Brent for delivery in 2015 through 2017 is up by between 3.5% and 4% on average since the start of the year. Prices for 2018 and 2019 are up by an average of 4% to 5%.

This makes sense. The immediate threat to oil supply is minimal. In addition, again hopes are rising of higher Libyan oil exports—although that has for months been the oil market's equivalent of Charlie Brown's football being pulled away.

But Iraq's flare-up, especially, has been a reminder that despite high and rising North American production, the global oil market remains beholden to several unstable countries. Iraq's role as a source of potential supply growth—enough to meet 17% of anticipated demand growth through 2019, according to International Energy Agency forecasts—means any doubt such barrels will actually appear raises longer-term price expectations.

Germany's fracking follies.  See also: Germany to severely and intentionally cripple it's economy.

The Los Angeles Times

Rockets rain on Israel as Israeli forces strike back at Gaza. Gonna be a hot summer in the mideast. [Elsewhere: Israel has called up 40,000 reservists "as tensions mount."]

Small-business optimism drops despite upbeat hiring plans. This was the quote: "The recent turmoil in northern Iraq, food price inflation, and elevated fears of energy price spikes are weighing down many small businesses." I always find it interesting that such articles never fail to ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the living room -- ObamaCare: 29-hour work week; 49-employees; and, higher costs overall. Of course, the minimum wage story was not mentioned either.

Southern California's largest immigrant detention center to expand. Well, duh.

White House invites Texas governor to meet on border crisis. President Obama has visited Texas three times for fund-raisers, but never visited (or discussed) the border situation, or his immiggration reform plan: "Open Borders." Which, I believe, will become the name of a new fast-food franchise, which bottled water as the featured drink.