Friday, March 15, 2013

Director's Cut, March, 2013, for January, 2013, Data

Link here to the NDIC site.

For additional commentary at Petroleum News, click here.

Highlights:
  • 2nd time in last few months that production dropped from previous month; due to weather
  • about 410 wells awaiting completion
  • new metric: 90 new wells/month needed to maintain current production
Flaring
Additions to gathering and processing capacity are helping with the percentage of gas flared holding at 29%. The historical high was 36% in September 2011.
Oil
  • Jan:  738,022 bopd (decrease; see director's comments; high was in Dec, 2012)
  • Dec: 770,111 bopd (5% increase over previous month; 3% over previous high)
  • Nov: 733,078 bopd (~ 2.0 % decrease; see comments from director below)
  • Oct: 747,212 bopd
  • Sept: 729,248 bopd
Producing wells
  • Jan: 8,322 (preliminary) (new all-time high)
  • Dec: 8,2237
  • Nov: 8,101
  • Oct: 8,035
  • Sept: 7,899
Permitting
  • Feb: 185 (note the decrease)
  • Jan: 218 (note the increase)
  • Dec: 154 ( significant decrease)
  • Nov: 211 (all-time high was 370 in Oct 2012)
  • Oct: 370 (all-time high)
  • Sept: 273
Pricing
  • Feb: $88/bbl (no change)
  • Jan: $88/bbl (note the nice increase)
  • Dec: $77/bbl
  • Nov: $81/bbl
  • Oct: $87/bbl
  • Sept: $85/bbl
Rig count
  • Feb: 183
  • Jan: 185
  • Dec: 184
  • Nov: 186
  • Oct: 188
  • Sept: 190
Comments:
  • January: Winter Storm Gandolph followed by over a week of sub-zero temperatures and wind chills. Rig count remained the same but well completions plummeted 26% to 85. That represents one-half of the previous 12-month average and the below the threshold needed to maintain production (90 wells).

4 comments:

  1. EXCLUSIVE: The next issue of the Atlantic Monthly bragging they were the first to report on the declining past its prime Bakken. No doubt they are putting a baseless article together to that effect.

    Just North Dakota having a normal winter. It helps keeps the riff raft out don't you know.

    This will all be forgotten by summer when exponential growth returns.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you.

      I'm still not sure why "The Atlantic Monthly" is so interested in this topic.

      Delete
  2. Hmm. Looks like maybe the oil drums "red queen" analogy may have some validity?

    Ndic now appearently estimates new completions per month required to "keep up" with decline . We may well be at or near the peak as the oil drum posited.

    Interesting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was my initial thought. 90 new wells/month to maintain current production level.

      I think folks are surprised when they learn what the average production per well in North Dakota actually is: 95 bopd/well. And that's a record. In 2007, when the Bakken boom began, the average North Dakota well was producing 37 bopd.

      For newbies: The article under discussion: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9506

      It's interesting to note the four conclusions of the study.

      Delete

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