Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Update On Predicting 2012 Dollar Value of Building Permits for Williston, North Dakota -- The Bakken

Updates

February 26, 2012: see first comment.  The 3 acres just north of Applebys -- I know the area very well; I walked it many times and have photos of trucks parking there some time ago, but have since been removed. So, another 60 units (I round numbers a lot on this site) in Williston which will go up pretty quickly. The landscape of Williston has changed beyond what anyone could have imagined, and it looks like the change continues. And I see fewer and fewer "bad news" / "woe is me" stories coming out of the oil patch. The infrastructure is catching up.

Original Post 
A few days ago I predicted that building permits in Williston will level off, come in under the record-setting $360 million for calendar year 2011.

Part I: A reader suggests that building permits for 2012 will, in fact, far exceed the $360 million, and has the data to support his/her contention. It came in as a comment, and knowing that not everyone reads the comments I have re-posted it here:
Your prediction of $200 million [in building permits for calendar year 2012 for Williston] is too low.

My bet is at least $425 million.

Granite Peaks Phase 1 (out of 3) in Harvest Hills: they have sold ALL but 5 residential lots so far. [While visiting Williston last autumn, I spent a lot of time in this area; it is incredible to think that all but five residential lots have been sol; absolutely incredible.

The other half of phase 1 are multi-housing lots (also all sold out).

Ground breaking will take place this spring for phase 2 and possibly for phase 3. These phases include another 1,000 building lots for single and multi-units, and includes a new middle school.

There is a link to a site that invites contractors to check out and bid on upcoming projects. Included are:
  • one new elementary school
  • one new middle school
  • addition to a current elementary school for an additional 500 students
  • renovation of an existing high school
  • four (4) national chain restaurants
  • one 200,000 sq ft national retail store (Menards?)
  • four (4) more motels/hotels
  • a 145-unit assisted living facility
  • and, more
A school alone would be over $100 million.

See link below. After clicking on the link, click on the drop box to choose 90+ days (not just 90 days); then type in Williston for city. Scroll over the right box and check North Dakota. You are searching for building projects for OVER the last 90 days for Williston, ND.

You cannot see the entire project without registering, but you get a brief description of the projects.

https://www.bidclerk.com/advanced-search.html
Something tells me my hunch of $200 million is way, way off. A huge "thank you" to the reader for taking time to send in such a detailed summary, as well as providing the link. I will post the link at "Data Links" page.

Part II:
Bakken Industrial park will be in full swing this spring as well. It is pretty evident they will sell out of their commercial lots with the new Love's truck center breaking ground this spring.

Also Sand Creek retail center will break ground this spring.

University Commons (600+ unit residential complex) has already begun scraping. This is south of 26th street behind the old Jorgenson's (now called 26th Street Liquor). That nearly 30-acre site will be housing. [I know the area area; I always appreciated the wine selection at Jorgenson's; quite incredible for Williston, and well before the boom.]

Another exciting project is a huge 4-level office complex out east of Williston built into a hillside by Stoney Creek Elementary School where the new Weatherford complex (similar to the Baker Hughes, Sanjel, Halliburton, and Schlumberger complexes) is going to be constructed. Weatherford is following the lead of the other large oil service companies in putting down permanent and serious roots in Williston. [That's incredible about Weatherford -- another huge oil service complex; absolutely amazing.]
Check out this site for a stand-alone office complex to be built by the owners of Red River Supply called Stoney Creek Offices link:

http://www.oza.com/index.php?page=stoney-creek

1 comment:

  1. The University Commons subdivision is north of Applebys, bounded on the north by 34th St and on the east by University. We just closed on a 3.1 acre piece in UC and plan to construct 59 units as soon as either financing or equity raising allows.

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