Thursday, January 25, 2018

The Market And Energy Page, T+4 -- January 25, 2018 -- Huge News -- Natural Gas Stores Drop Below 5-Year Minimum -- Winter Yet To Begin For Many -- EIA

DUCs galore. Seven wells come off confidential list; five are DUCs (winter or other reasons?). Oasis has a very nice well but used 30 million lbs of proppant, including expensive 3 million lbs of ceramic.

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Peak oil? What peak oil? See this post.  Now, today, no link for the data below but easily found I assume, GlobalData says the top 10 onshore oil projects will add over 1.1 million bbls per day.

Now, remember, folks disagree, but at 98 million bopd there is somewhere between one and three million bopd more supply than demand. So, adding 1 million bopd either doubles that amount of excess or as little as one-third more, which is still more than "trivial." Some data points from the site:
  • 10 projects selected from 126 onshore project globally
  • about $85 billion in CAPEX will be spent over the lifetime of these top 10 onshore projects
  • these top 10 projects will produce almost 10 billion bbls of crude oil
  • [for comparison, the Bakken, a reservoir of at least 500 billion bbls, at 20% primary production, will produce 100 billion bbls; so far the Bakken has produced about 1 x 365 x 8  = 3 billion bbls of crude oil]
  • the average development breakeven = $55/bbl [for comparison, the breakeven across North Dakota is $21/bbl]
  • projects in Russia have the greatest break-even at $92/bbl
  • to bring the 10 projects online: $85 billion
  • by 2025: CAPEX forecast at $50 billion
  • conventional oil Kuyumbinskoye development in Russia leads capital investment with $13 billion over its development lifetime
  • second, in CAPEX: Canada's Telephone Lake (Cenovus Energy), a $10 billion CAPEX development cost 
Most exciting: once Saudi Aramco goes public, we will be able to see their new projects.

Huge, Huge Story -- Might Require A Stand-Alone Post
Natural Gas Stores Drop Below 5-Year Minimum


Later, 9:40 p.m. CT: see first comment -- the week ending January 19th tied for second largest natural gas draw on record, eclipsed only by the week ending the 5th...

the draw for current week will be less than average, but there's another polar outbreak forecast for the beginning of February...

Original Post
I never thought I would see this, and I've been tracking this on the blog for about seven years. This in incredibly remarkable on many levels. Some things to think about:
  • less than five years ago, the US was building LNG import terminals to prepare for global warming
  • now, five years later, the US is converting those LNG import terminals to export terminals -- mostly because Europe has gotten out of the fossil fuel business
  • the US is now #1 in natural gas production due to huge Marcellus, Utica fields, and those fields are nowhere near their tops
  • imagine the balance of trade dollars that would be going overseas (to Qatar, et al) if the US frackers had not broken the code on shale recovery
This is a dynamic link.

Via twitter:

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