Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories: "Surprising Drawdown" -- CNBC Breaking News -- April 11, 2017


April 12, 2017: see previous update. Yes, it appears CNBC "leaked" the report a day early. The crude oil inventory was reported today as expected.

Later, 9:22 p.m.:  this is very strange. Earlier this afternoon CNBC had "breaking news" that US crude oil inventories had a "surprising drawdown." The CNBC female presenter read that blurb and there was a crawler that said the same thing. Nothing else was said; I've been unable to see another source on the net. It's been my understanding/observation that crude oil inventory data (like most crude oil data) is released on Wednesdays. Tonight, this on the internet:
On [Wednesday] April 12, 2017, at 10:30 AM EST, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its crude oil inventory report for the week ending April 7, 2017. 
It will be interesting to see what the report says. If, in fact, there was a "surprising drawdown," and folks knew it as early as today but the official report is released tomorrow, it suggests to me that, again, there are a lot of folks that have "inside information," but perhaps I'm getting ahead of my headlights.
Original Post 

More on inventories later.

One can read this story any number of ways with regard to the OPEC-led cut in production. At Twitter, OPEC's top officer Mohammad Barkindo says oil inventories have dropped only 20 million bbls since the cuts started. Back of the envelope:
  • world production about 90 million bbls of crude oil per day (?)
  • cuts announced in October, 2016; let's say that due to contracts, tankers in transit, etc, that the cuts began January 1, 2017
    • 31 + 28 + 31 + 11 = 101 days; call it 100 days
    • 100 days x 90 million bbls = 9,000 million bbls of production
    • 20 / 9,000 million = a really small number
  • another way to look at it:
    • 20 million bbls / 100 days = 200,000 bopd which is a rounding error
    • currently Libya is shipping about 200,000 bopd
    • North Dakota produces 200,000 bbls every eight hours
Disclaimer: I make a lot of simple math errors and wrong assumptions. 

I also find it interesting that Wood Mackenzie and Goldman Sachs are on opposite sides of the "bet" here.

Talk About A Lot Of Class

I am definitely not a Cuban fan, and I've never cared much one way or the other for Tony Romo, but tonight, I gained a lot of respect for Mark Cuban (not everyone felt that way). But it was clear the fans loved it.

This was an NBA game but it had a real feel for some just plain, old good fun.  Dirk Nowitzki and Rony Romo are very close friends.

My reference to "a lot of class'" has to do with how Tony Romo is handling his situation, being released from the Dallas Cowboys, replaced by a rookie.

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