EIA's US Short-Term Energy And Summer Fuels Forecast [With Comment] -- April 11, 2017

EIA releases U.S. short-term energy and summer fuels forecast; summer gasoline prices higher.

Oil Markets:

U.S. crude oil production is expected to be higher during the next two years than previously forecast, with annual output in 2018 now forecast to reach 9.9 million barrels per day, exceeding the previous record level of 9.6 million barrels per day reached in 1970. [Memo to self: send note to Jane Nielson.]

Gasoline/Refined Products:

Even though gasoline prices this summer are expected to be 10% higher than last year, U.S. highway travel and gasoline demand are expected to increase.

More expensive crude oil is the main contributor to higher gasoline prices at the pump this summer. [Really? More expensive crude oil?]

Natural Gas:

The amount of electricity generated from natural gas this summer is forecast to be lower than last summer, reflecting higher natural gas prices. [Coal is less expensive; see below.]

Electricity:

Most U.S. consumers would see lower electricity bills this summer if actual temperatures are close to the forecast below-normal levels.

Even though retail electricity prices are expected to be higher this summer, forecast milder weather could result in lower electricity expenses for the average household, but temperatures often vary significantly from forecasts. [On the other hand, predicting global temperatures 100 years from now is unerring; the science is settled.]

Coal:

U.S. coal production is expected to rise this year due in part to expected higher coal-fired electricity generation.

Renewables:

Hydroelectric generation this summer is expected to be up compared to last summer, reflecting recent high precipitation along the West Coast, the nation’s leading region for hydroelectric capacity. [With regard to wind and solar energy, 20% of zero is still zero.]