Friday, January 23, 2015

So Much For Peak Oil -- We Will Never See $100 Oil Again -- Prince Alwaleed -- January 23, 2015; Now It's Sorghum In The News

Some talking points from the CNBC interview:
  • we will never see $100-oil again
  • OPEC will not blink first
  • 90% of Saudi's budget comes from oil
  • Saudi Arabia is not using the price of oil right now to impact the US fracking industry
  • there's an oversupply and demand is not so high
  • the road back to $60 - $70 range will not be easy, not that quick
  • global strength of OPEC has weakened
  • "I would not say that OPEC is dead, but ..."
If these three data points are true:
  • we will never see $100-oil again;
  • the road back to $60 - $70 will be difficult, slow; and, 
  • Saudi Arabia derives 90% of its budget from oil;
Three things necessarily follow:
  • Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo (and the rest of OPEC is in deeper doo-doo);
  • the US becomes the de facto mover in shaping global oil and gas policies; and,
  • US consumers are going to love inexpensive gasoline for quite some time.
For investors, it's a massive re-set, as Hillary would say. 

See disclaimer.

Sorghum In The News / The North Dakota Perspective

From the WSJ:
The grain, long overshadowed by more-plentiful crops, suddenly is in high demand thanks to China’s soaring appetite for animal feed and a shift in its buying preferences away from foreign corn. A 15-fold increase in imports of U.S. sorghum by China over the past year has pushed its price above corn’s in parts of the U.S., a rarity that highlights how policy shifts by Beijing can have a far-reaching impact on the global grain trade.
China’s buying pace has surprised many traders and grain merchants who deal in sorghum, a drought-hardy crop that also is known as milo in the Great Plains, its traditional growing region. Some Kansas grain elevators are offering farmers about 10% more for sorghum than for corn, inverting the roughly 10% premium corn usually fetches. There is no futures market for sorghum, so traders use corn futures to benchmark prices and manage risk.
“It’s unlike anything I’ve seen in my career, and I’ve been doing this for about 30 years,” said Charlie Sauerwein, grain-merchandising manager with
WindRiver Grain LLC, a Kansas company that ships grain by rail to U.S. ports
Check out the graphic at the linked WSJ article.

From Growing North Dakota:
Numerous factors, including water shortages, high feed prices and starch availability/requirements, are luring some dairy producers into planting alternative crops. “Sorghum silage, for example, is gaining attention as an appealing substitute for corn silage as people search for drought-friendly crop solutions."
Sorghum requires considerably less water than corn. This hardy, drought-tolerant plant can thrive even when rainfall and/or irrigation is limited, making it a logical choice for areas facing water supply issues. Sorghum seeds are much less expensive than corn seeds, therefore, the input costs for growing sorghum are lower than corn. Sorghum may also yield nearly the same tonnage per acre as corn. 
When it comes to overall forage quality however, there are differences and anyone planting sorghum silage needs to be aware, so the differences can be managed accordingly. Similar in protein but lower in energy, sorghum silage offers significantly less starch. This means it cannot serve as a full replacement to corn silage without additional ingredients or forages being added to the diet. The starch content of sorghum silage runs between 11 and 16 percent, whereas corn silage, known for its high energy and digestibility, provides starch levels between 25 and 35 percent.
Much more at the link.

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