In fact, the report was worse than folks would lead you to believe. Analysts forecast that first time claims would drop to 315,000. Not only did they not decrease, first-time claims surged.
Wow, the spin continues. The AP is reporting:
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since February, a dose of mixed news for an economy that appears to be gaining momentum.
The Labor Department said Thursday that a seasonally adjusted 344,000 people applied for benefits, up 14,000 from the previous week and the most since late February.
The less-volatile four-week average rose by 3,000 to 320,000, a figure that's still consistent with a steadily improving job market. The number of people applying for benefits has risen three straight weeks, but Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said last week's numbers might have been warped by the Easter holiday.
"We think the underlying trend (in applications) is falling, but only slowly," Shepherdson wrote in a research note.Boiler-plate press release week after week for the past two years:
- for an economy that appears to be gaining momentum
- the less-volatile four-week average
- still consistent with a steadily improving job market
- the underlying trend is falling
- but only slowly
Deeper in the article:
Another Labor Department report shows that layoffs are running nearly 40 percent below their peak in 2009. Though they've stopped cutting jobs, employers have been slower to add new ones: Hiring remains well below pre-recession levels.Six years into the recovery?
Trivia: the AP report did not mention that analysts forecast a fall to 315,000.
Most of the non-hiring is hidden in the overtime of the hourly worker and the some salary. There will be a tipping point when people burn out and orders are still increasing. At our plant they have hourly working 12 hours almost across the board with a few temps. another 20 % in business and something will have to give. It would be interesting to see if Mark Perry has graphs on temp employee percentages and over time percentages. I don't know if you got my other message my phone was acting weird, had train derailment right were I live now I have some of our oil burning in downtown lynchburg right across the street from a restraunt we visit, the depot grill. WSET the local station has a very good drone shot after the scene.
ReplyDelete1. I haven't gone through all my e-mail; it's possible I got the earlier not about the fire; I am traveling so don't get on the net as consistently as when I am home.
Delete2. I hope no personal injuries, property damage due to fire.
3. That's a very, very interesting point about the hiring. That's a new data point for me but supports one of my musings on the blog some time ago. In my "reality arena" I argue that the recovery will be very slow and very measured, particularly painful to watch it develop so slowly. However, there are enough leaves swirling in the tea (such as your note above) that suggest to me, in my "crazy arena of thinking" that we could be surprised if the recovery spikes much more quickly than we think it might --- a dam bursting, pent-up demand.