The point is that the numbers coming out of the Bakken are absolutely staggering. Let's pretend this is 2015 -- that's only a year from now.
2025 is ten years from 2015. Ten years is not all that far down the road. The Bakken boom began in Montana fourteen years ago (2000) and seven years ago in North Dakota (2007).
All that is background to this one data point from the recent MDU presentation:
- Natural gas, current, about 280 mmcf/d; base case 2,700 mmcf/d; high case 3,900 mmcf/d by 2025.
The geographic footprint of the Bakken is not very big. Right now, in the big scheme of things, it's most of Williams County, much of McKenzie County, half of Mountrail County, and half of Dunn County. There may be about six natural gas processing plants in that footprint right now. To manage ten times, and maybe more, of natural gas production, it's gonna take a lot of natural gas processing plants. (Yes, I know about the Whiting southern ops in Stark/Billings counties.)
It begs the next question, the next thought, but I better stop there before I get myself in trouble.
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Speaking of Paying Attention
I've blogged about this from the very beginning. With regard to ObamaCare there is a lot of white noise out there -- coming from both sides of the aisle. I post some of those stories, but for me, the proof in the pudding will be a) the earnings reports for the health insurers for 3Q14, 4Q14, and 1Q15; and, b) the 2015 insurance premiums that will be announced in October, 2014.
The tea leaves tell me four things with regard to the 2015 health premiums that are scheduled to be announced in October:
- the Obama administration will delay the open season for 2015 (and forbid the new premiums to be released prior to the election)
- by executive order, 2015 health care premiums will be capped at 2014 levels
- the subsidies will be significantly increased
- individual mandate (already "unofficially" delayed) will be "officially" delayed
Health industry officials say ObamaCare-related premiums will double in some parts of the country, countering claims recently made by the administration.
The expected rate hikes will be announced in the coming months amid an intense election year, when control of the Senate is up for grabs. The sticker shock would likely bolster the GOP’s prospects in November and hamper ObamaCare insurance enrollment efforts in 2015.
The industry complaints come less than a week after Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius sought to downplay concerns about rising premiums in the healthcare sector. She told lawmakers rates would increase in 2015 but grow more slowly than in the past.
“The increases are far less significant than what they were prior to the Affordable Care Act,” the secretary said in testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee.
Her comment baffled insurance officials, who said it runs counter to the industry’s consensus about next year.
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Speaking of Trainwrecks
Has it been two weeks without a Bakken crude oil train derailment? Knock on wood.
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Today's Celebrity Schedule
Ms Sebelius: US speaking tour --health insurance premiums will increase in 2015
Mr Biden: NATO speaking tour -- reassuring US allies
Mr Kerry: global speaking tour -- global warming
Michelle: Chinese vacation -- with children, no press corps -- 100% vacation
Michelle: Chinese vacation -- with children, no press corps -- 100% vacation
Mr Putin: redrawing the world map
Mr Obama: filling out his NCAA "March Madness" basketball brackets
Oh, Mr Gore, you ask? Al Gore has an unexpected free day. The "global warning" conference he was scheduled to speak at was canceled due to snow/cold weather.
Oh, Mr Gore, you ask? Al Gore has an unexpected free day. The "global warning" conference he was scheduled to speak at was canceled due to snow/cold weather.
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