Just Taking A Re-Look At The Wells That Came Off The Confidential List Today; KOG Misses On Earnings

One word: incredible.

• 24570, 1,649, Oasis, Shields 5200 43-20T, Camp, t7/13; cum 27K 9/13;
• 24644, 1,773, Oasis, Newberry 5200 41-20T, Camp, t9/13; cum --
• 24905, 2,846, BR, CCU Prairie Rose 31-30MBH, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 9/13;
• 24952, 2,765, Oasis, Leni 5693 42-11B, Alger, t7/13; cum 24K 9/13;
• 24956, drl, SM Energy, Cade 12X-19H, Poe, no production data,
• 25278, 2,605, BR, CCU William 24-20TFH, Corral Creek, TD = 22,550 feet;  t10/13; cum 

It's easy to lose site of how good these wells really are.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Crude oil continues to fall. KOG is down almost 6% today; Oasis is down about 3%.

KOG missed on earnings yesterday but:

Kodiak reported an overall 54% increase in sequential equivalent sales volumes with 3.3M barrels of oil equivalent sold, or an average of 35,400 BOE per day during Q3, as compared to 2.1M BOE, or an average of 23,200 BOE/d in Q2.

From Motley Fool:

For Kodiak Oil & Gas, the money is really flowing these days. The company announced robust gains in its Q3 results, revealing that for the period it took in revenues of just under $300 million. This was nearly triple the $112 million it posted in the year-ago quarter. Net income increased almost tenfold, coming in at $31.2 million ($0.12 per diluted share) against Q3 2013's $3.5 million ($0.01).

In spite of the increases, the company's net came in significantly below the average analyst estimate for EPS of $0.23. Collectively, those analysts expected a top line of $297 million. 

Following the announcement of the results, Kodiak's shares were down slightly in after-hours trading. They sagged by 0.2%, or $0.02, to $12.95 per share. 

So, the top line was somewhat more than what analysts expected: $300 million vs $297 million. This tells me that analysts can forecast top-line revenue pretty good in the Bakken -- which I've been saying for quite some time -- contracts are six-month contracts; and production is fairly easy to predict. But folks have said that KOG has high drilling expenses, and earnings coming in at 12 cents, significantly below the average estimate of 23 cents suggests analysts either believed KOG's CEO when he said he would bring down drilling costs, or the analysts were just early on the call.

It will be interesting to see if analysts talk about the cost of KOG's wells related to the rest of the Bakken operators. I don't know. I don't follow the industry that closely. Go back to my "welcome/disclaimer." This blog is simply about my attempt to understand the Bakken better; it is not an investment blog. I have sentimental feelings about my home state of North Dakota, and my hometown of Williston. How these individual companies do is not the purpose of this blog.