Friday, September 27, 2013

Another Look At That Goldman Sachs Report Regarding The Bakken

First this one: did anyone really pay attention to this graph, "Exhibit 2," that Goldman Sachs provided in recent guidance?

Some observations from that one graph:
  • production will continue to increase through 2022
  • in 2013, "we" hit 850,000 bopd; it won't be until 2040 before we go below 850,000 bopd
  • production will peak about 2 million bopd
  • they anticipate downspacing to 160-acres
  • the graph includes, but is very conservative, for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th bench of the Lower Three Forks
  • the graph does not include other formations, such as the Tyler

At least one other reader and I agree: we cannot make sense of this statement in the GS report:
“We see production growth of [130,000 barrels a day to 210,000 barrels a day] through 2016,” above the average of 110,000 barrels a day for the six months to July, they said.

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