Job Watch: Okay, The Number Jumps 10,000 And The 30-Second Sound Bite: Conditions Continue to Improve at A Steady Pace

Updates

January 5, 2013: I thought the mainstream media reports on the jobs numbers yesterday were a bit too upbeat. Right or wrong, the WSJ agrees: tepid job growth fuels worry. Huge headline and top of the fold, top story in today's WSJ. I don't watch network television or talk shows on cable, so I have no idea the spin the American viewer is getting on this, but the numbers are atrocious, four years, going on five years into the "recovery." Government cuts and more spending are yet to kick in.

Original Post

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

If you recall, last week's unemployment number was mostly estimated. I couldn't find the revised numbers.

However, the numbers for last week increased by 10,000 to 372,000. That would suggest the "official" number for the previous week was 362,000, significantly higher (by 12,000) than the bogus estimate that was posted by the government:

December 27, 2012: the numbers are bogus, all estimates due to government shut down for the Christmas holiday -- 350,000 last week; 365,750 four-week moving average. 

The government reported 350,000 last week when in fact it was 362,000.

Now, today, the unemployment, first-times claims, jumped another 10,000, back up to 372,000.

The four-week moving average "was little changed at 360,000. A nice round number that suggests .... I won't go there.

But let's look at this. Last week the government says the four-week moving average was 365,750; that was before the "official" figure was revised to 362,000 (12,000 more than the 350,000 estimate) and now today's number up another 10,000, and yet the moving average is actually down from last week. Okay. The same bureaucrats that wring their hands over 0.01 degree change in global temperatures.

Anyway, be that as it may: today's number of 372,000 is also an estimate:

However, claims data for nine states, including California and Virginia, was estimated because of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

And despite the number going up by 12,000 two weeks ago, and by 10,000 today, the analyst's conclusion: the moving average suggests "a sign labor conditions continue to improve at a steady pace." Wow. I guess that's why the President extended unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, because things were looking to get better. This is not rocket science.

By the way, did you all notice something else? The press actually referred to the earlier holiday as the "Christmas" holiday. I'm wondering if that might be politically incorrect.