Is the Bakken Over-Hyped? Are Leases for $5,000/Acre Reasonable?

Earlier, Whiting reported the IP for the TTT Ranch 4-6TFH, file number 18804: 1,561.  It also set a record for a TFS well in the Sanish.

The TTT Ranch 4-6TFH is the fourth well in section 6-153-91.  In fact, two of the wells are on the same lot, lot 4 in that section.

Earlier I posted the file numbers of the other three wells in that section but did not provide other information, due to fact I was traveling and hard to post all of that here. Here are the other three file numbers/wells in that section and their names:

The other three are:

• 17603, producing, WLL, TTT Ranch 11-6H, Lot 4, northwest to southeast
• 18297, 2,762, WLL, TTT Ranch 12-6H, Lot 5, northwest to southeast, 70k bbls < 90 days
• 18876, confidential, Rohde 14-6XH, Lot 7. For a discussion on Whiting's "X" designated wells in the Sanish, click here.

Although two of these are still on the confidential list, it appears that all four wells will be long laterals running from northwest to southeast.

18804, 1,561, WLL, TTT Ranch 4-6TFH, Lot 4, Sanish (record IP for a TFS well in the Sanish); this is the fourth well in this section.

Back-of-the-envelope calculations (I recommend that you disregard the following; it's my personal thinking-out-loud):

Some operators in their corporate presentations suggest that the EUR of wells in the better Bakken sections will in the 700,000 barrel range. If these four wells live up to that "hype," this section could produce upwards of 2,800,000 barrels.  At $50/bbl, this represents $140 million at the wellhead. North Dakota sells at a discount to Texas crude because of shipment costs. Once pipeline takeaway matches production, that delta should decrease. In addition, going forward, the price of oil will probably increase, not decrease, as a general trend.

640 acres * $5,000 = $3.2 million.  (Remember, a section is 640 acres.)
The cost to drill a well at $7 million * 4 = $28 million. 

$5,000/acre represents a very small price when compared to the cost of drilling.