Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- June 15, 2021

Covid-19. Wow, wow, wow -- 

this was opined on the blog last year, now being supported by a scientific study -- a new analysis of blood samples from 24,000 Americans taken early last  year (2020) is the largest study to date to suggest the coronavirus popped up in the US in December, 2019.
People in these five states had Covid-19 before any reporting last year: Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Link to The WSJ.
Oil companies moving to renewables: low margins. And, boring, boring, boring. 

Equinor, pivoting to renewable energy, has lowered its expected returns in renewables (mostly offshore wind) to 4 - 8%, down from 6 - 10% as recently as October 2020). Wow. 
Memo to self: stay away from energy companies pivoting to wind, solar. Double-down on companies like CVX whose CEO says he will stay the course.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

XOM: whispers -- dividend will be raised. I posted that note earlier this morning; it was an off-hand remark by Jim Cramer (?) on CNBC this a.m. Now this: XOM could rise 40% with big dividend growth. 

Exxon took drastic measures last year to conserve cash, even temporarily suspending matching payments to some employee retirement accounts. The dividend cost the company $14.9 billion, a hefty sum in a year when it made just $14.7 billion in operating cash and spent $21.4 billion on capital and exploration expenses. Exxon borrowed substantially, ending the year with $20.1 billion more net debt than it had in 2019. 
But that spending restraint and the recent increase in oil prices—to a two-and-a- half-year high—has changed Exxon’s fortunes this year. In the first quarter, Exxon was able to pay its dividend and capital expenses out of its cash flow.

A Random Bakken Metric

Runs in Big Bend-Bakken oil field, April, 2021:

  • MRO:
    • wells: 4
    • crude oil: 10,063 bbls
    • per well: 2, 516 bbls/well
  • Slawson:
    • wells: 227
    • crude oil: 1,615,595 bbls
    • per well: 7,7117 bbls/well
  • White Butte Operations, LLC
    • wells: 2
    • crude oil: 2,366 bbls
    • per well: 1,183 bbls/well
  • Whiting:
    • wells: 2
    • crude oil: 7,950 
    • bbls per well: 3,975 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 235
    • crude oil: 1,635,974
    • per well: 6,962 bbls/well

Runs in Grinnell-Bakken oil field, April, 2021:

  • Whiting:
    • wells: 4
    • crude oil: 13,562
    • per well: 3,391 bbls/well
  • XTO:
    • wells: 69
    • crude oil: 59,532
    • per well: 863 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 73
    • crude oil: 73.094
    • per well: 1,001 bbls/well

Runs in Reunion Bay, April, 2021:

  • MRO:
    • wells: 258
    • crude oil: 983,409
    • per well: 3,811 bbls/well
  • WPX:
    • wells: 67
    • crude oil: 186,123
    • per well: 2,778 bbls/well
  • Total:
    • wells: 325
    • crude oil:  1,169,532
    • per well: 3,599 bbls/well


  1. Yup. Had friends claim they had "the worst flu ever" in December '19 maybe even starting in Nov 2019. Couple of them struggled with it long into the Spring/Summer.
    No one was taking blood samples in Montana in 2019.

    1. But, wow, once Medicare reimbursed at $34,000 per diagnosis every physician was diagnosing every "cold and flu" case as Covid-19. Pretty funny. I wonder if there will be any "seasonal flu" this fall or if everything will still be diagnosed as Covid-19 regardless of whether samples are taken.

    2. I think we had COVED in our household February 2000. GF was real sick, 2 weeks earlier her son was sick, 2 weeks earlier his GF was sick. I did not get the fever and coughing, but digestive distress for weeks. Her son's GF worked at a gas station/convenience store being around hundreds of people a day, likely was where she caught it.

    3. Very, very interesting. One wonders how much the CDC, NIH, WHO knew at this time?

    4. Early on prior to March 1 2020, there was not a whole lot know about the personality of this virus. I think that the incubation period of a week or more and be able to spread it prior or without symptoms is why it got out of control. Initially it was viewed as a bad case of common flu until folks were being admitted to hospital and put on ventilators and negative for flu virus.

    5. Most childhood viruses for which we vaccinate our children have a incubation period up to two weeks; that's a hallmark of viral illnesses. By the way, it turns out the ventilator story was a "red herring." Is anyone talking about ventilators any more?

  2. I try to not be a conspiracy buff, but the alphabets listed knew it all and probably for years before.

    1. They had been doing the research for years, if not decades.

  3. Gain of function tech is going to be the dirty little secret that has already gotten out of their bag of secrets.
    I'm not a virologist, dont even know one,but before last week had never heard of gain of function

    1. One of my college degrees in college was biology; my entire career was in medicine; I outlined a virology book after retirement and, I, too, NEVER, NEVER heard of "gain of function." I mentioned that on the blog. While folks were being warned about GMO -- genetically modified organisms (GMO) -- wheat, for example; beef, for example -- and not one word about gain of function (GOF). Pretty amazing how they were able to distract all of us.