Thursday, March 6, 2025

Measles -- Covid: Then And Now -- March 6, 2025

Locator: 48468MEASLES.

Re-posting from earlier today:

Measles:

  • Texas
    • January, 2025: current epidemic broke out, 
      • centered in Mennniote community in West Texas
    • February 24th report: 124 cases to date
    • March 4th report: 159 cases
  • Response?
    • then, Dr Fauci: lock down; mask; mandatory vaccination; IV Lysol; 
      • daily press conferences
      • national hysteria
    • now, RFK, JR cod liver oil; vitamins; vaccinate if you are so inclined
      • weekly update, maybe
      • cool, calm and collected
  • Observations:
    • measles markedly more infectious than Covid-19; 
      • markedly more infectious; 
      • no comparison
    • mortality, worldwide:
      • measles: 150,000 / year
      • Covid-19: 500,000 / year
    • reporting: entirely "political" / slanted / agenda-driven

Re-posting from 2023:

Locator: 45606B.  

The Bailey oil field is tracked here.

I'll never quit blogging about the Bakken but if I did quit, I would replace the blog with a blog on MRO activity in the Bailey oil field, North Dakota. Just saying. But I guess that’s still sort of like the Bakken. But different.

*******    
On Another Note

For the record, I have more posts than GasBuddyGuy has tweets.

*******    
On Another Note

Nothing to do with the Bakken, but for the archives, I've just about had enough with EU regulators. Now, the EU is upset with Nvidia.
 
*******    
On Another Note

My wife seems to be able to drive to any location in the local area in a third of the time it would take me.
 
*******    
On Another Note

I have to laugh. Some folks think the government shutdown was due to Feinstein. LOL. 100% due to GOP. The WSJ. [Later: GOP does their job.]
 
*******    
On Another Note

Reality sucks.

Underlying inflation cooled notably this summer, with price pressures moderating for a third consecutive month in August. 
If that continues this fall, it would strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. 
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, largely reflecting energy costs. 
Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose just 0.1% in August, the weakest monthly increase since 2020, the Commerce Department said Friday. 
Over the three months through August, core prices rose at a 2.2% annualized rate. If that trend continues in the coming months, inflation would be running very close to the Fed’s 2% target.  
But higher energy prices pushed up overall inflation last month, highlighting why officials aren’t ready to declare victory.

 

Six New Permits -- March 6, 2025

Locator: 48467B.

Measles:

  • Texas
    • January, 2025: current epidemic broke out, 
      • centered in Mennote community in West Texas
    • March 4th report: 159 cases
    • February 24th report: 124 cases to date
  • Response?
    • then, Dr Fauci: lock down; mask; mandatory vaccination; IV Lysol; 
      • daily press conferences
      • national hysteria
    • now, RFK, JR cod liver oil; vitamins; vaccinate if you are so inclined
      • weekly update, maybe
      • cool, calm and collected
  • Observations:
    • measles markedly more infectious than Covid-19; 
      • markedly more infectious; 
      • no comparison
    • mortality, worldwide:
      • measles: 150,000 / year
      • Covid-19: 500,000 / year
    • reporting: entirely "political" / slanted / agenda-driven

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $66.28. Promises made, promises kept. Energy prices continue to fall.

Active rigs: 33.

Six new permits, #41673 - #41678 - #41683, inclusive:

  • Operators: Devon (3), Hess (2), and Hunt Oil Company
  • Fields: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie County); Wheelock (Williams County); Ross (Mountrail County)
  • Comments: pending

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40748, 3,279, MRO, Gross 24-23H, Dunn County;
  • 40749, 2,925, MRO, Rosenkranz 24-23H, Dunn County;
  • 40750, 3,046, MRO, McAdoo 34-23H, Dunn County;

In depth:

  • a fourteen-well pad in Bailey oil field;
    • #40462; #40743 - #40751, inclusive; and, #40774, #40779, #40781, #40782
    • it appears nine are actively producing and reporting
    • it appears five are on DLR status but drilled to depth; probably fracked, also
    • it appears six run south; eight run north (could be mistaken) -- including two section line wells and two wells west of the "primary" drilling unit, sections 23 and 26
  • four wells of interest all are off line, as would be expected:
    • 18736, 626, MRO, Rosemary Eckelberg 21-26H, Bailey oil field, t9/10; cum 290K 11/24;
    • 21970, 1,234, MRO, Eckelberg 14-23TFH, Bailey oil field, t3/12; cum 214K 11/24;
    • 17310, 459, MRO, Rosemary Eckelberg 41-26H, Bailey oil field, t8/08; cum 205K 6/24;
    • 17318, 483, MRO, Clive Pelton 34-23H, Bailey oil field, t8/08; cum 225K 9/24;

Disclaimer, NVDA, Eggs, My Favorite Chart -- March 6, 2025

Locator: 48466ARCHIVES.

Politics: one gets the feeling that a very, very large silent majority is beginning to feel quite liberated. Trump's honeymoon among them could last a very, very long time. Trump had no honeymoon among the Democrats in Congress (US House and US Senate) and no honeymoon among federal judges, and now even the US Supreme Court, so:

  • he has nothing to lose among those two groups; and, 
  • the open hostility manifested by those two groups will likely endear the very, very large silent majority to his side.

Politics: the very, very large silent majority is noting that the Minnesota Dems and the AOC squad are supporting (California Dems are becoming less and less visible except in California):

  • an extension of the Ukraine war, even if it leads to WWIII or the use of nuclear weapons; full support for Zelenskyy's "no-compromise" stand; and, zero support for Trump's peace overtures;
  • a desire to allow men to participate in women's sports;
  • continued government spending with no need to cut the deficit or the debt;
  • continued support for the global trading system in which China, India, and the South Pacific Islands are all treated as emerging nations at the expense of the American taxpayer.

Investing: I have never been more aggressive buying US equity than I am now. 

I have a 30-year-rolling horizon and my entire portfolio will go to the grandchildren. They will not care what the market was doing on the day I bought the shares. They will also not care at what price I bought the shares. Don't misread that or take that out of context.

Today, link here:

Summit Carbon, hope springs eternal. Link here. See also.

See disclaimer at bottom of blog. I haven't posted the "disclaimer, briefly" for quite some time. The disclaimer is always available on every page, and at the top among the pages.

NVDA: link here. Down 16% today? I wonder how Nancy is doing? Stargate was first (?) mentioned on the blog February 8, 2025. Since then, we've had announcements for two large AI/LDC build-outs in/near Salt Lake City (#2) and Abilene, TX (#1).



*****************************
My Favorite Chart

MMF, re-posting:

Locator: 48435MMF.

Link here.


Elsewhere, holy mackerel, link here:

Washington, DC; February 27, 2025—Total money market fund assets increased by $60.54 billion to $6.97 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, February 26, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Among taxable money market funds, government funds2 increased by $52.97 billion and prime funds increased by $5.84 billion. Tax-exempt money market funds increased by $1.72 billion.

Also, link here.

Eggs: the Louisville Courier Journal. Link here. Kroger and Walmart are "holding the line." Kroger at $5.50 / dozen; Publix at $650. Advertised by Uber Eats for $2.80 / dozen at an Albertsons location in Portland. Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.    

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Locator: 48465B.

Updates

Later, 1:47 p.m.: it is being reported that President Trump has suspended Canadian tariffs until April, 2025.

Later, 1:47 p.m.: it appears President Trump is "diverting" all military aid that was going to Ukraine, and now sending that aid to Israel.

Original Post

Mexico:

I've not read the article, and no plans to do so. Right, wrong, or indifferent, what this tells me is that the Mexican government has spoken with the Trump administration and progress is being made with regard to the border. The fact that Trump has declared victory at the southern border may have made it possible to suspend "most" new tariffs for the time being. Now he wants to see the Mexican government "press" and not "rest."

The question soon becomes, to what extent are tariffs being used to make policy decisions among US trading partners, and to what extent are tariffs being used to raise money. I think it's 70-30: 70% for diplomatic / policy decisions and 30% to raise money ... or perhaps raising money is only a sideshow.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $65.77. Promises made, promises kept. Trump's promise to lower oil prices.

New wells:

  • Friday, March 7, 2025: 21 for the month, 137 for the quarter, 137 for the year, 
    • 40496, conf, Hess, GO-Olson-157-98-2536H-4,
    • 40370, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-8H,
    • 40366, conf, Enerplus, LK-Erickson 147-97-11-2-5H-LL,
    • 40363, conf, Enerplus, LK-Quilliam 147-97-14-23-5H-LL,
  • Thursday, March 6, 2025: 17 for the month, 133 for the quarter, 133 for the year,
    • 40204, conf, Hess, EN-Weyrauch A-LW-154-93-1719H-2,
    • 39945, conf, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-93-10-2H-1,
    • 39834, conf, Hess, EN-Meiers-154-93-1324H-9,

RBN Energy: as power needs soar, "virtual" power plants proliferate, but what are they?

The U.S. power sector is undergoing a major expansion to keep pace with the rising demand for electricity from data centers and other consumers, and trying to do a lot at once. Keep a lid on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by adding wind, solar and other renewables. Maintain grid reliability by supplementing variable renewable energy with more around-the-clock sources like natural gas-fired power plants. Oh, and keep power costs down, too. That’s a big collective ask, and to help make it possible, power grids are turning to so-called “virtual power plants” (aka VPPs) that, with an assist from computers and software, aggregate smaller power sources, batteries and flexible demand to provide power to the grid much like a traditional combined-cycle plant would. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll introduce VPPs and explain why they’re worth learning about. 

Everyone knows the generation sources contributing to the U.S. power grid come in a wide variety of forms — everything from nuclear, coal-fired and gas-fired plants to wind and solar farms. VPPs are a different animal altogether, consisting not of a single, relatively large stand-alone power source but a decentralized network of smaller, distributed energy resources (DERs) — “behind-the-meter” generators (including rooftop solar) and storage batteries, plus flexible load like electric vehicle (EV) charging devices, electric water heaters and smart thermostats that can ramp down when needed. These disparate sources operate in concert, managed by computers and advanced software.

VPPs aren’t just different, they’ve been flying largely under the radar but are more common than you may think. The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates the U.S. has 30 to 60 GW of VPP capacity today, equal to about 4% to 8% of peak electricity demand nationwide. The DOE predicts that VPP capacity in the U.S. could grow to 80 to 160 GW in just six years as grid operators around the country seek to quickly expand the availability of a reliable power source while holding down costs and minimizing GHG emissions.

We’ll begin by discussing in more detail how VPPs work. VPPs are “virtual” because the sources of supply and flexible demand are sprinkled throughout different areas (see Figure 1 below), and there is no central physical facility such as a traditional coal or gas plant. Instead, the operation of these small energy sources is connected via computers and software and, with an essential assist from batteries, work together to optimize their joint operation and help balance electricity supply and demand in the larger grid. VPPs enroll DER owners, including residential, commercial and industrial electricity consumers, in participation programs that offer rewards for contributing to grid operations.

What a Virtual Power Plant Consists of and How It Works

What a Virtual Power Plant Consists of and How It Works

Figure 1. What a Virtual Power Plant Consists of and How It Works. Source: Department of Energy 

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Book Of The Day! Asimov's Guide to Shakespeare, Isaac Asimov, c. 1970 -- March 5, 2025

Locator: 48464ASHWEDNESDAY.

Tag: Department of Education

Six weeks to Easter Sunday. Easter:

  • first Sunday after first full moon after spring equinox
    • spring equinox, 2025: March 20;
    • full moon occurs on that very day, March 20, 2025;
    • so we need to wait for next full moon: April 14, 2025;
    • the first Sunday after that full moon: April 20, 2025
  • late Easter this year

Deep in Texas: absolutely loving the first month of Trump's presidency. Link here. For the archives.

Department of Education: executive order coming -- front page, The WSJ --

And Barack Obama called himself audacious

Net zero and banking: link here. You have no idea how much I hate articles like this. One more reason to be happy Trump is in office. He gave the banks "top cover" to exit the net zero scam. Grist, wiki.

********************************
The Book Page

Asimov: it may be time to re-read the wiki entry for Isaac Asimov.

  • an exact contemporary of my dad, born 1920 - died 1992;
  • born in Russia; arrived US, 1923
  • professor of biochemistry at Boston University
  • American writer:

During his lifetime, Asimov was considered one of the "Big Three" science fiction writers, along with Robert A. Heinlein and Arthur C. Clarke.
A prolific writer, he wrote or edited more than 500 books. He also wrote an estimated 90,000 letters and postcards.
Best known for his hard science fiction, Asimov also wrote mysteries and fantasy, as well as popular science and other non-fiction. Asimov's most famous work is the Foundation series, the first three books of which won the one-time Hugo Award for "Best All-Time Series" in 1966.
His other major series are the Galactic Empire series and the Robot series. The Galactic Empire novels are set in the much earlier history of the same fictional universe as the Foundation series. Later, with Foundation and Earth (1986), he linked this distant future to the Robot series, creating a unified "future history" for his works.
He also wrote more than 380 short stories, including the social science fiction novelette "Nightfall", which in 1964 was voted the best short science fiction story of all time by the Science Fiction Writers of America.
Asimov wrote the Lucky Starr series of juvenile science-fiction novels using the pen name Paul French.

Wow, this simply makes my day.  Almost half the price that Amazon was charging -- and it's a hardcover. Amazing. I am absolutely thrilled.

Asimov's Guide to Shakespeare, A Guide to Understanding and Enjoying the Works of Shakespeare, Isaac Asimov, c. 1970; this Random House hardcover edition, c. 1993. Bought today, at Powell's Books, Portland, Oregon.

An example, from page 17, the beginning of chapter 2, "A Midsummer Night's Dream." I've often thought about this but have not seen it expressed until now:

The title of this play sets its tone. "Midsummer" refers to the summer solstice, when the noonday sun reaches teh most elevated point in teh heavens. By our present calendar, this is June 21. (To be sure this is only the beginning of summer by modern convention and be temperature considerations.

Yes, it is interesting, "we" consider summer June, July, and August, and arrange our life as such -- "summer" means "summer vacation" from school and "summer" means "summer vacations" in general, even for those whom school is not relevant in their calendar-planning activities. 

If there were but two seasons, winter and summer, summer would extend from March 20th to September 20th, and June 21st, the summer solstice, and yes, indeed, Shakespeare, again had it correct: June 21st is "midsummer."

Without question, if I were so lucky as to be able to teach a "Shakespeare" course to high school students or to first year, perhaps "remedial English," students, I would consider using this book as one of the primary texts. It would be too expensive for most of the students to afford, so I would find a way to get them the necessary texts without spending much money.

For non-students, this would be an incredibly good "beach book" except for the fact that it is way too heavy, thick. It does come in two volumes.

**************************
The Recipe Page 

Steak au Poivre (peppercorn or ground black pepper).

Tag: oil oil poached potatoes creamy peppercorn sauce

This recipe calls for a rather extravagant amount of olive oil for poaching the potatoes, but it won’t go to waste. Once you’ve removed the cooked potatoes, let the oil cool, strain it into a sealable container and store it at room temperature, out of direct light–ready for another use.

Wiki.

Link to The Wall Street Journal

As luxurious as filet mignon in a classic French au poivre sauce is, Mitchell’s preferred steak technique makes it a realistic weeknight dinner.
“I cook it very fast over really high heat,” he said. He lets the meat come to room temperature before it hits the pan and waits to season it until just before cooking.
“Salt draws out moisture, and that prevents a good sear,” he said.

I've heard the same thing many times before, and most important, with a good cut of meat, the only seasoning one needs: salt and pepper. And neither to be used sparingly.