Thursday, November 17, 2016

Back To The Permian -- November 17, 2016

This morning on MSNBC Morning Joe it was mentioned that the USGS analysis of the Permian showed:
  • 20 billion bbls
  • largest continuous reservoir USGS has ever surveyed
  • 3x the size of the Bakken
I took another look at the first note at the blog regarding this new survey. At the post, the Permian:
  • an estimated and previously unaccounted for 20 billion bbls crude oil
  • 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and, 
  • 1.6 billion bbls of natural gas 
Let's go back to some earlier posts on the size of the Bakken:
Comments derived from those links regarding the Bakken follow.

A trillion-bbl reservoir:
  • the trillion-bbl reservoir first posited by CLR, was eventually pulled back to the Leigh Price number, 500 billion bbls
  • a 3% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 15 billion bbls
  • a 10% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 50 billion bbls
Bentek and EIA, Bakken production 2040:
  • 1.5 million bopd average through 2030; 2016 - 2030 =  15 yrs x 365 days/yr x 1.5 million bopd = 8,200 million bbls = 8 billion bbls (sub-total)
  • 2.0 million bopd average, 2031 - 2040) = 10 years x 365 days/yr x 2 million bopd = 7,300 million bopd = 7 billion bbls (sub-total)
  • 1 million bopd average after 2040 through unknown number of years
  • total estimate based on Bentek, EIA presentations in the past: 8 billion + 7 billion + x billion = at least 15 billion bbls
  • everyone pretty much agrees 3% recovery rate is a very, very conservative recovery rate for the Bakken; Whiting has suggested as much as 8%
USGS Permian and Bakken surveys
  • for the Bakken-Three Forks: top-line estimate -- 11.4 billion bbls
  • I've not see USGS's top-line estimate for the Permian; the headline number is 20 billion bbls
  • 20 billion bbls is not 3x the size of the Bakken
  • but that's about right: USGS mid-range estimate for the Bakken: 7.4 billion bbls; for the Permian: 20 billion bbls
This graphic was posted by the EIA earlier this year, August 22, 2016:

Note the amount of dark blue (Bakken) vs the Wolfcamp (blue).

In light of the new USGS survey of the Permian the graph will have to be re-done (I would suppose).

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