- 20 billion bbls
- largest continuous reservoir USGS has ever surveyed
- 3x the size of the Bakken
- an estimated and previously unaccounted for 20 billion bbls crude oil
- 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and,
- 1.6 billion bbls of natural gas
- a trillion-bbl reservoir?
- Bentek: 2.2 million bopd
- USGS 2013 Bakken-Three Forks: top line estimate: 11.4 billion bbls
- Bakken production through 2040
A trillion-bbl reservoir:
- the trillion-bbl reservoir first posited by CLR, was eventually pulled back to the Leigh Price number, 500 billion bbls
- a 3% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 15 billion bbls
- a 10% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 50 billion bbls
- 1.5 million bopd average through 2030; 2016 - 2030 = 15 yrs x 365 days/yr x 1.5 million bopd = 8,200 million bbls = 8 billion bbls (sub-total)
- 2.0 million bopd average, 2031 - 2040) = 10 years x 365 days/yr x 2 million bopd = 7,300 million bopd = 7 billion bbls (sub-total)
- 1 million bopd average after 2040 through unknown number of years
- total estimate based on Bentek, EIA presentations in the past: 8 billion + 7 billion + x billion = at least 15 billion bbls
- everyone pretty much agrees 3% recovery rate is a very, very conservative recovery rate for the Bakken; Whiting has suggested as much as 8%
- for the Bakken-Three Forks: top-line estimate -- 11.4 billion bbls
- I've not see USGS's top-line estimate for the Permian; the headline number is 20 billion bbls
- 20 billion bbls is not 3x the size of the Bakken
- but that's about right: USGS mid-range estimate for the Bakken: 7.4 billion bbls; for the Permian: 20 billion bbls
Note the amount of dark blue (Bakken) vs the Wolfcamp (blue).
In light of the new USGS survey of the Permian the graph will have to be re-done (I would suppose).
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